Is it the right time to invest in commodities like crude oil and gold? - HotUKDeals
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Is it the right time to invest in commodities like crude oil and gold?

ukmax2k Avatar
8y, 3w agoPosted 8 years, 3 weeks ago
Now that the stock-market, property and major currencies like sterling, euro and dollar are all loosing value fast, is it worth investing in commodities (oil and gold) which do keep up with inflation?

Any experts here to point a newbie in the right direction...Thanks!

Some useful links I've found so far...

http://www.oil-price.net/
(N.B. Oil was $143 a barrel a few weeks ago and is now $61!)

http://www.goldseek.com
http://www.bullionvault.com
http://www.goldmoney.com
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ukmax2k Avatar
8y, 3w agoPosted 8 years, 3 weeks ago
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#1
Gold is always a great asset, which is why it's always stable and people invest in this commodity when the share prices are plummeting.

It's always the safe bet.

I don't know much about oil but it will always be a necessity and from what I remember, oil became a difficult commidity to get hold of, which is why the prices sky rocketed but that was always going to be short term. :)

I hope that helps and if you want some advice for investments, then I can always help. :thumbsup:
#2
Hi RFM,
Do you invest in any major indices or do you just buy gold and store it in a safe-deposit box? Thx
#3
No is the short answer

A long way to go before oil finds some stability and from the looks of it several sovereigns or swfs have been selling their gold reserves to finance other projects. Gold is no longer the safe heaven it used to be tbh

Not sure why you think the dollar is weaking as its actually the opposite - it has strengthened hugely against all currencies other than the JPY

I would wait for a £ bounce to 1.62 -65 or so and buy some dollars. 1.40 may not be very far off ...

Of course, best thing to do is to speak to a financial advisor. I personally dont trust them and manage my own wealth but hey I peruse Hot UK deals so whom am I to say that :whistling:
#4
On the oil front, you probably have the right idea but timing may be a tad off. Several good research reports out there including one by Goldman sachs who initially had predicted that oil would hit $150-200 (back in April May 2008) but have since revised it down to $40-60

Lond dated oil futures may be a good buy if it bottoms out but structured products are very complicated so I strongly suggest you speak to a professional to understand the risks involved

Hope that helps
#5
If you are serious about investing try some of the financial sites. Everything is timing and value.
Is the item going to be worth more or less in the time frame you have to invest. You mention oil, the best way to invest is through a oil company and its shares. Gold, oil foreign exchange and bonds all are speciality investments but you could buy into them if you have enough knowledge and money.
How long do you want to invest, what for? These are all questions you have to ask and can you afford to loose your money as seen lately by the credit crunch. No one person can advise you, research is the key to investment despite what some say.
#6
Thanks for your sound advice forsaken and tony.

I was wondering if u or any1 here can recommend a good online community forum, like HUKD, that I can access to gain valuable tips and advice on investments; be it stocks, property, currencies or commodities. Thx.
#7
Think I once read something that it was more risky to invest in commodities as if the price fell the investor could be asked to make up the shortfall. I may have dreamt it though. Worth checking anyway before you leap.
#8
quick answer gold is infact not the choice at the moment in dyer stock markets like it use to be, its cheap and actually going to get cheaper, that goes for oil also, in normal times when they slow production down it rockets, not the case now, also dollar aint looseing value it could not be stronger against the pound, but dont be in a hurry to invest in anything yet, just keep cash for now, we have total meltdown to come yet and i dont mean just ressecion like were just starting to see, i mean depression will hit us next year, so make your own minds up.
1 Like #9
oh and besy community is adfvn its awsome, and there free BB is great been there 8 years myself, i mainly trade cfd's myself, when we cut interest rates last week i made over £2500 in minutes on the dollar, remember when we cut interest rate out pound becomes weak and dollar strong, as soon as all the hedge funds forclose we will see ftse at under 3000 and dow under 6000/7000.
#10
Holding on to cash is probably very good advice - the real question is... what currency to hold it in ;)

Although there is a very small possibility of a depression, its looking very unlikely atm

Unfortunately I cant help on the online community front as all of the info I come across is generated internally.

Trading cfds or fx where you can get 100 or 200/1 leverage can be extremely profitable but also very dangerous ukmax so please make sure you do your homework and only use ££ that you can afford to lose especially given the current environment.
#11
Forsaken
Holding on to cash is probably very good advice - the real question is... what currency to hold it in ;)

Although there is a very small possibility of a depression, its looking very unlikely atm

Unfortunately I cant help on the online community front as all of the info I come across is generated internally.

Trading cfds or fx where you can get 100 or 200/1 leverage can be extremely profitable but also very dangerous ukmax so please make sure you do your homework and only use ££ that you can afford to lose especially given the current environment.


Sorry but I think your wrong and we are headed into a very deep depression.
Don't buy the US $ they are predicting it will crash to be replaced with a new currency called the Amero. Canada, America and Mexico.
If you want to keep cash then buy the Euro that is going to be around for longer than the £.

If your going to invest in gold or silver then make sure you have physical possession of it, not just a note saying you own it.
#12
Everyone is entitled to their opinion Swanny

There is a small possibility of a depression as per my previous post but I highly doubt at this stage

As to the US$ you cant be any more wrong. Amero is just not going to happen. As to the Euro, the EU has never had to face a recession never mind the worst recession since the 30s and there is a major concern that given the ECBs sole mandate, the Euro may not survive

I work with some of the smartest people in the industry and they are more often than not right
#13
I hope your right but we have never been in a situation like this ever before, no one knows what is going to happen, it's all guess work at the mo.
#14
I think we all hope we are right :)

The fact that commodity prices have gone done has really improved the situation allowing the ECB to cut rates and the BoE's move to surprise the market with 150bp was very well received as they were very much behind the curve

Fingers crossed but we are living through some very interesting times - to say the least
banned#15
gold is a good way to keep money safe, and government bonds(gilts)
#16
Daytrader;3408702
oh and besy community is adfvn its awsome, and there free BB is great been there 8 years myself, i mainly trade cfd's myself, when we cut interest rates last week i made over £2500 in minutes on the dollar, remember when we cut interest rate out pound becomes weak and dollar strong, as soon as all the hedge funds forclose we will see ftse at under 3000 and dow under 6000/7000.

Thx for the tips Daytrader...
btw what's besy community and their web address?
#17
ukmax2k
Thx for the tips Daytrader...
btw what's besy community and their web address?


http://www.advfn.com/
#18
dollar is getting stronger by the day its infact the euro and the pound that is getting weak, dollar is the only currency around the world accepted in bad times, and be assured were heading for the worse we have ever seen in our life times thats for sure, also to the guy that said 150bp cut was well received, it was to the general public with morgages etc but not to the money markets as it said just one thing, and that was were in dire straights, thats why shares that had climbed back up 5 days running, lost all there gains in hours, most people just carrying on like normal but the people and goverment in the know are worried s**tless what is about to hit the world ecomony, will take months to filter through but will happen next year for sure, everyone will buy there kids present's as normal for xmas on there credit cards, but soon reality will strike and not even the govermet will be able to help, they have chucked billions to the banks etc and that has not helped the markets at all, they cant keep chucking paper money at the markets for ever, will be interesting times in years to come queing up at the soup kitchens and looking up at people jumping off buildings, see you in the que!
#19
gold where it use to be the best in bad times to have, has in fact changed now, your find that alot of the big boys are sticking with the dollar, gold is going down and alot further to fall.
#20
Any deflationary effects on gold and silver will be temporary, we have an economy based on a fiat currency. The downward pressure on gold and silver currently is done via manipulation of the Comex, which cannot fill outstanding orders. When the temporary dollar rally ends, and it crashes, gold and silver only have one direction to go, especially if there is a new global currency backed entirely or partially by gold/silver, which would be the reason for governments to hoard it, other than the reasons that we all should be holding it, of course - it has value based upon its limited quantity, unlike the dollar, which is nothing more than an IOU backed by colorful paper.

Good luck everyone.
#21
Yup! I'll have gold over $ anyday :)

With the Sterling value to get even worse if there are further cuts in interest rates to come, then it is pointless to keep any savings in the banks. Perhaps investing in shares, after careful research, is the best bet now (since share prices r so low)...and maybe have some money invested in commodities too.
#22
Crystal ball - if you have one that works then you're quids in, if you don't and you're not a trader forget it!!


Daytrader - weren't you going to bestow largesse upon me???
#23
Makes no difference whether you are a trader or not, no one knows what's in store for us, it's all speculation, that's the way the markets are played, expert traders make gains as well as losses. There are still big companies out there that won't be around in 6 months so invest wisely, but how do you do that in our present financial market? If you know the answer to that you will make a fortune..
The best investment you can make at the moment is learn how to grow vegetables in your garden, remember you can't eat gold.
#24
chesso
Crystal ball - if you have one that works then you're quids in, if you don't and you're not a trader forget it!!


Daytrader - weren't you going to bestow largesse upon me???


largesse - what does that mean.
banned#25
Daytrader;3408664
quick answer gold is infact not the choice at the moment in dyer stock markets like it use to be, its cheap and actually going to get cheaper, that goes for oil also, in normal times when they slow production down it rockets, not the case now, also dollar aint looseing value it could not be stronger against the pound, but dont be in a hurry to invest in anything yet, just keep cash for now, we have total meltdown to come yet and i dont mean just ressecion like were just starting to see, i mean depression will hit us next year, so make your own minds up.

you really should stop spouting out your beliefs as factual statements. You are just guessing otherwise you wouldn't be on this site, thats for sure :x

The OP was asking for sensible advice of which yours is certainly not. You seem to be a really depressing person. I bet you're a good person to chat to down the pub - NOT!
#26
Would not invest in gold it is so high atthe moment it can only go down:)
#27
csiman
you really should stop spouting out your beliefs as factual statements. You are just guessing otherwise you wouldn't be on this site, thats for sure :x

The OP was asking for sensible advice of which yours is certainly not. You seem to be a really depressing person. I bet you're a good person to chat to down the pub - NOT!


just to make my previous posts clear i did not use the word fact, but i should have as my staements are correct just check the markets, mark my words were in a reccesion now but i think you know that already but next year or year after were be in deep not seen before in our life times, fact if you like it or not, all the top financial guys around the world are telling you this on tv all time, you better start beleiving them, you asked me i answered i deal in the markets daily by the minute, i see alot going on, just like the goverment do, they did not lower rates because they wanted to you know, 150bpp cut says volumes, goverment and the rest of the world are very worried about what is happening.

oh and when i said dollar getting stronger, oil and gold ceaper they have so there facts also, i dont think there is anything wrong in me saying that were headed for a bad reccesion or maybe even depression do you ? most people with a brain should know that already.
#28
Daytrader

Humility is the first thing you learn if you want to survive in the markets especially if you want to make a living off trading and based on your posts its something that you unfortunately seem to lack.

The fact that you deal in the markets daily by the minute trading a few £ks in cfds doesnt mean you fully understand the markets and/or the reasons behind the actions taken by the BoE / gvment so to state that your opinion is fact is laughable to say the least
#29
Forsaken
Daytrader

Humility is the first thing you learn if you want to survive in the markets especially if you want to make a living off trading and based on your posts its something that you unfortunately seem to lack.

The fact that you deal in the markets daily by the minute trading a few £ks in cfds doesnt mean you fully understand the markets and/or the reasons behind the actions taken by the BoE / gvment so to state that your opinion is fact is laughable to say the least


ok this will be my last post on this thread as i cant be bothered to argue, so your telling me were not in reccesion and its not going to be very bad ? dollar has not got stronger ? gold and oil has not droped ? all thouse are facts if you have a brain your know that, also i been share dealing 25+ years only got into cfd's this year, most traders have moved onto them, i also belong to financial communitys, and big rate cut did send message to the markets that goverment are worried the shares plummented, anyway cant be bothered anymore, im sure you know better, take care.
#30
You obviously also lack the ability to read because if you had read my previous posts you wouldnt have bothered with your questions and/or your personal attacks

As to knowing better, I usually let others make that conclusion instead of stating that my opinions are fact

Finally, throwing ones toys out of the pram says alot about ones mental state / maturity

Good luck "daytrading". Youll need it based on everything Ive picked up on...
#31
To OP:

Depends on what sort of risk you want to take, how much money you have, how long your investment term is and how likely you are to need the money in an emergency etc.

I would say that if you are in a secure job, have a small mortgague etc can afford to take risks and potentially invest long term then buy equities. I would recommend video game publishers / manufacturers in the medium / short term, oil / energy companies in the medium / long term and water supply companies in the long term.

If you are not in a secure job and can't afford risks and are only looking at a short term investment, I recommend spreading your savings through different banks and institutions like N,S and I

If you have a large amount of money I'd be tempted to try and buy cut price property without a mortguage. Depending on location and situation you might be able to by a house for 30% below the asking price. If you can do this I'd recommend it as long term (10 years) property prices should grow.

Very difficult to say without knowing your situation but hopefully this will give you some ideas.
#32
I was going through a few of my things yesterday and came across some of these which may potentially be of interest to you if you can put aside some time to read them

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Come-into-My-Trading-Room/dp/0471225347/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1226506812&sr=8-4
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Trade-Your-Way-Financial-Freedom/dp/007147871X/ref=sr_1_7?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1226506812&sr=8-7
http://www.amazon.co.uk/High-Probability-trading-Become-Successful/dp/0071381562/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1226506812&sr=8-1
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Naked-Trader-Anyone-Trading-Shares/dp/1905641516/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1226507013&sr=8-1

Good books which should give you a solid base to build on

GBP USD is heading towards 1.40 quicker than I anticipated as we were at the 1.58-1.60 range when I first replied to your post - its currently at 1.4945. Nice little profit ...

On the energy front, having had a quick look at the charts, it seems like $50 may be a good entry for oil should you decide to go down that route. Another commodity you may want to consider is nat gas. Support for it has been material and manifest at or near $6/Mbtu over the past five years. You can either buy it outright or own it through nat gas trusts that usually pay any income streams out to investors via distributions and at their current levels - distributions are at 20%+. One last commodity that you may not want to overlook at these levels is cotton. It's trading at historically "silly" prices

Equity markets are looking very ugly atm so you may want to hold off for now. If you do decide to jump in, I suggest you use the "drip" method.

EUR JPY has been a great indicator for the past year or so and its looking very ugly atm...

Feel free to send me a PM if you have any further queries.
#33
interesting that all what i said is still true as of today, sterling,oil,gold all hammered and dollar as strong as ever, and markets in very bad state, shorted the dow for 3k+ today, dow under 8000 and ftse under 4000 by end week maybe, any how what do i know, good luck in your trading what ever route you go.
banned#34
Daytrader;3447109
interesting that all what i said is still true as of today, sterling,oil,gold all hammered and dollar as strong as ever, and markets in very bad state, shorted the dow for 3k+ today, dow under 8000 and ftse under 4000 by end week maybe, any how what do i know, good luck in your trading what ever route you go.

I thought we'd heard the last from you on this thread :?

One can only hope I suppose :whistling:
banned#35
Forsaken;3443447
I was going through a few of my things yesterday and came across some of these which may potentially be of interest to you if you can put aside some time to read them

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Come-into-My-Trading-Room/dp/0471225347/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1226506812&sr=8-4
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Trade-Your-Way-Financial-Freedom/dp/007147871X/ref=sr_1_7?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1226506812&sr=8-7
http://www.amazon.co.uk/High-Probability-trading-Become-Successful/dp/0071381562/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1226506812&sr=8-1
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Naked-Trader-Anyone-Trading-Shares/dp/1905641516/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1226507013&sr=8-1

Good books which should give you a solid base to build on

GBP USD is heading towards 1.40 quicker than I anticipated as we were at the 1.58-1.60 range when I first replied to your post - its currently at 1.4945. Nice little profit ...

On the energy front, having had a quick look at the charts, it seems like $50 may be a good entry for oil should you decide to go down that route. Another commodity you may want to consider is nat gas. Support for it has been material and manifest at or near $6/Mbtu over the past five years. You can either buy it outright or own it through nat gas trusts that usually pay any income streams out to investors via dividends and at their current levels - dividends are at 20%+. One last commodity that you may not want to overlook at these levels is cotton. It's trading at historically "silly" prices

Equity markets are looking very ugly atm so you may want to hold off for now. If you do decide to jump in, I suggest you use the "drip" method.

EUR JPY has been a great indicator for the past year or so and its looking very ugly atm...

Feel free to send me a PM if you have any further queries.

Now here is someone offering good advice without implying that it is going to happen as they know better than everyone else :thumbsup:
#36
csiman
I thought we'd heard the last from you on this thread :?

One can only hope I suppose :whistling:


just thought you needed someone here that knows what there on about thats all, also forsaken only wrote what i had already confirmed in my previous posts, some people just dont want to hear the truth, move on guys, oh and it is going to happen ressecion is here, try reading a paper or watch the news.
#37
"Someone here that knows what there on about" ??

When did this become a competition??

Lets get one thing straight you arrogant twit - since you like facts, Ill give you fact.

A wannabe daytrader who worked at a small time broker for 20 odd years is trying to climb the wrong tree and is about to fall flat on his ****... Thats a fact

Do you seriously think youre impressing anyone with 3k profit? Its chump change. I suggest - unless you have anything constructive to add - you stop swinging in thin air as youre only making a fool out of yourself...
#38
never said i worked as a broker, i just have been buying stocks shares for 25 years, and i doubt i will fall flat on my face, i havent yet in all this time, also i short the market when its falling so i wont loose there either, your correct 3k aint alot for a days work that was just a example, im happy makeing 200 to 500 a day usually, dont see where im making a fool out of myself stating facts was just telling the origial poster a few things that were all correct, i think your the fool denying what i state, anyway i dont want to get into a slaging match with you thats just childish im above that, cheers

EDIT: ok guys reading back at a few of my posts, i can see how i may have come across a bit twatish and know it all, so sorry lets put a line now through it, life is to short, take care all.
#39
I hope you all bought gold like I suggested

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-g-20s-secret-debt-solution-27996

Gold would be priced at over $10,000 an ounce.
banned#40
Daytrader;3450515

EDIT: ok guys reading back at a few of my posts, i can see how i may have come across a bit twatish and know it all, so sorry lets put a line now through it, life is to short, take care all.

Fair enough :thumbsup:

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