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Stop complaining about Brexit – the economic benefits will be huge

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According to former head of the British Chamber of Commerce. Similar to other recent threads. Here is an opinion on Brexit. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/23/complaining-brex… Read More
colin4man Avatar
5m, 3w agoPosted 5 months, 3 weeks ago
According to former head of the British Chamber of Commerce.

Similar to other recent threads. Here is an opinion on Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/23/complaining-brexit-economic-benefits-government-cost-of-living-multinationals
colin4man Avatar
5m, 3w agoPosted 5 months, 3 weeks ago
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(5)
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colin4man
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colin4man
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colin4man

Primarily from flexibility.
As globalisation increasingly drags economic power East. We will be in a much better position, outside of the EU, to react to that.
Um, why would we be? As the finance centre of Europe at this point in time (and acknowledging the threat to jobs that Brexit provides) can you point to one way we could be in a better position outside of the EU rather than inside the EU? The EU is the largest trading bloc in the world and that provides significant leverage when dealing with nations such a China and America.
colin4man

Secondly, if America adopts a more protectionist agenda, as seems likely, to counter the shift in global economies, we are much better placed than the EU to take advantage of that and ride on the coat tails of it.
Again, how do you come to the conclusion that a more protectionist USA allows us (a nation of 65 million) to be better placed to (and this is a bizarre choice of words) 'take advantage of that'?
Firstly, in what ways do you fathom we could 'take advantage of' a more protectionist United States? Surely you must know the key areas that they'd target in any trade deal and our lack of leverage in discussions will leave us wide open to a bad deal.
Secondly, increased US trade wouldn't make up for the loss we could suffer from ditching the single market.
What's fascinating is that you're regurgitating arguments made six months ago when we had an outward looking President in power.
Now we've got a protectionist, nativist who stood at his inauguration and said 'America First' and you've not changed the record. That underlines how immune you are to reality, even when reality is changed in such a blatantly obvious way and a giant orange man spells it out for you.
But if you can come up with one specific industry that we could grow in (you could say car or farming or even finance if you fancy a giggle) through increased trade with a Trump presidency then I'll concede that you might have a shred of knowledge on trade and the economy.
Again you seem to have a very narrow view on the world, but let's continue....can you point to one way we could be in a better position outside of the EU
The leverage of being in the EU is tempered by the other 27 EU nations needing to agree terms before a deal can be signed, and, as was the case with the EU Canadian deal, quite often regions within those 27 nations need to sign off on the deal. This makes the whole process far more complex than would be the case if the UK were agreeing deals on their own.
I've never said trade with the US will increase or replace anything so not sure what you mean by the comments about 'six months ago' but.......
one the advantages of a protectionist USA are that they cannot be isolationist. Therefore they need access to the rest of the world including Europe for their exports/services etc. In this world it is very likely that the UK would be a far better place for US firms to do business than the EU. So growth would come from increased jobs, tax receipts and spending etc.
There are other advantages.
Let me ask you a simple question. What is your vision of the EU in 10 years time?
That is such a laughably poor answer that I can't break it all down now, but you couldn't even point to one specific industry that you thought we could grow our exports in. It's a very simple question and I even gave you some options.
Where you were right is that trade deals between trading blocs are made more complicated by the varied interests of the parties. That's the trade-off you make for leverage. We have one aim apparently but we're a smaller market than the EU.
My view of the EU in 10 years - complex. We seem to be entering a new period of trade wars with Trump looking to introduce punitive tariffs and China probably becoming more outward-looking. Therefore you'll have the EU, US and China as the three large powers and us probably struggling for relevancy. Maybe we can prosper through low taxation and relying on our services but I think our manufacturing sector is shredded through a combination of EU land grabs and Trump's tariffs.
Either way, low-skilled workers are going to struggle in the UK because they don't fit with May's vision.
Again you seem to be very narrow on your views. I didn't mention exports to the US because I don't see that as a major growth area.
However, as I said, being better equipped to work along side the US puts us in a stronger position than the EU to exploit the changing world we are living in.

But I've asked you for specific areas or ways in which we can grow and you give vague answers that don't demonstrate any knowledge or insight into the world economy, financial markets or even basic trade.

I asked you for ONE industry we could see growth in as a nation, I even gave you a few examples of what an industry was and yet you still couldn't do it. Don't feel bad though because that's a common theme on this form.

According to people on your level Brexit will be good and the benefits will be huge but you don't know how or why.

It's because 52%ers aren't problem solvers or doers. They've victims and blamers.


I'm out.

Your ego, attitude and ideology appears to be a major hurdle standing in the way of you understanding or accepting contrary views which unfortunately means you have ended up in the "not worth the effort" category. Shame really, it was fun for a while.
9 Likes
http://truegif.com/pictures/gif/11631.gif
6 Likes
colin4man
colin4man
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
Brexit will simply widen the gap in society.
If you are prospering then you'll likely continue to prosper although some will invariably see their jobs moved overseas. Some will go with them, others will hopefully find employment elsewhere.
If you are struggling or 'just about managing' then you'll struggle more. Price rises will impact you heavily whilst public services will see less funding. If you couldn't get on the housing ladder before, little will change and there's no great slew of jobs coming because of Brexit.
It'll sort the men from the boys.
So you don't agree with this expert opinion is what you are saying?
No.
My view is that the reality will be somewhere in between the harsh forecasts of many Brexit doubters and the rosy view of the Brexit lovers,
with an eventual significant improvement for the UK.

Firstly, that's not between the two views. It's squarely in the 'rosy view of the Brexit lovers'.

But ok, where do you see that growth coming from?
6 Likes
Seriously, who is sad enough to create these accounts to like comments?
5 Likes
Looks like the mods have taken the duplicate thread down. Shame they chose to remove the one with more discussion.

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banned 2 Likes #1
cool post bro ;)
3 Likes #2
Let's hope so.
3 Likes #3
waterloo
Let's hope so.

That's all anyone can do now really so all this constant brexit chat is pointless really.

Edited By: g8spur on Jan 23, 2017 22:00: Spelling
5 Likes #4
Looks like the mods have taken the duplicate thread down. Shame they chose to remove the one with more discussion.
5 Likes #5
Brexit will simply widen the gap in society.

If you are prospering then you'll likely continue to prosper although some will invariably see their jobs moved overseas. Some will go with them, others will hopefully find employment elsewhere.

If you are struggling or 'just about managing' then you'll struggle more. Price rises will impact you heavily whilst public services will see less funding. If you couldn't get on the housing ladder before, little will change and there's no great slew of jobs coming because of Brexit.

It'll sort the men from the boys.
9 Likes #6
http://truegif.com/pictures/gif/11631.gif
2 Likes #7
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
Brexit will simply widen the gap in society.

If you are prospering then you'll likely continue to prosper although some will invariably see their jobs moved overseas. Some will go with them, others will hopefully find employment elsewhere.

If you are struggling or 'just about managing' then you'll struggle more. Price rises will impact you heavily whilst public services will see less funding. If you couldn't get on the housing ladder before, little will change and there's no great slew of jobs coming because of Brexit.

It'll sort the men from the boys.


So you don't agree with this expert opinion is what you are saying?
2 Likes #8
colin4man
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
Brexit will simply widen the gap in society.
If you are prospering then you'll likely continue to prosper although some will invariably see their jobs moved overseas. Some will go with them, others will hopefully find employment elsewhere.
If you are struggling or 'just about managing' then you'll struggle more. Price rises will impact you heavily whilst public services will see less funding. If you couldn't get on the housing ladder before, little will change and there's no great slew of jobs coming because of Brexit.
It'll sort the men from the boys.
So you don't agree with this expert opinion is what you are saying?

You posted it. Are you agreeing with everything he says?
2 Likes #9
Too much talk,too little action.
2 Likes #10
colin4man
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
Brexit will simply widen the gap in society.

If you are prospering then you'll likely continue to prosper although some will invariably see their jobs moved overseas. Some will go with them, others will hopefully find employment elsewhere.

If you are struggling or 'just about managing' then you'll struggle more. Price rises will impact you heavily whilst public services will see less funding. If you couldn't get on the housing ladder before, little will change and there's no great slew of jobs coming because of Brexit.

It'll sort the men from the boys.


So you don't agree with this expert opinion is what you are saying?


No.

My view is that the reality will be somewhere in between the harsh forecasts of many Brexit doubters and the rosy view of the Brexit lovers,
with an eventual significant improvement for the UK.
6 Likes #11
colin4man
colin4man
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
Brexit will simply widen the gap in society.
If you are prospering then you'll likely continue to prosper although some will invariably see their jobs moved overseas. Some will go with them, others will hopefully find employment elsewhere.
If you are struggling or 'just about managing' then you'll struggle more. Price rises will impact you heavily whilst public services will see less funding. If you couldn't get on the housing ladder before, little will change and there's no great slew of jobs coming because of Brexit.
It'll sort the men from the boys.
So you don't agree with this expert opinion is what you are saying?
No.
My view is that the reality will be somewhere in between the harsh forecasts of many Brexit doubters and the rosy view of the Brexit lovers,
with an eventual significant improvement for the UK.

Firstly, that's not between the two views. It's squarely in the 'rosy view of the Brexit lovers'.

But ok, where do you see that growth coming from?
3 Likes #12
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
colin4man
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
Brexit will simply widen the gap in society.
If you are prospering then you'll likely continue to prosper although some will invariably see their jobs moved overseas. Some will go with them, others will hopefully find employment elsewhere.
If you are struggling or 'just about managing' then you'll struggle more. Price rises will impact you heavily whilst public services will see less funding. If you couldn't get on the housing ladder before, little will change and there's no great slew of jobs coming because of Brexit.
It'll sort the men from the boys.
So you don't agree with this expert opinion is what you are saying?
You posted it. Are you agreeing with everything he says?
It's just another opinion piece from a Brexiteer. Quite why anybody would take someone who was sacked (I mean resigned) from the British Chamber of Commerce seriously is something of a mystery. The Grauniad probably only publish his articles so that the majority of their readers can laugh at how ludicrously desperate Brexiteers are.
1 Like #13
Some more Brexit spam. Awesome.
6 Likes #14
Seriously, who is sad enough to create these accounts to like comments?
2 Likes #15
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
colin4man
colin4man
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
Brexit will simply widen the gap in society.
If you are prospering then you'll likely continue to prosper although some will invariably see their jobs moved overseas. Some will go with them, others will hopefully find employment elsewhere.
If you are struggling or 'just about managing' then you'll struggle more. Price rises will impact you heavily whilst public services will see less funding. If you couldn't get on the housing ladder before, little will change and there's no great slew of jobs coming because of Brexit.
It'll sort the men from the boys.
So you don't agree with this expert opinion is what you are saying?
No.
My view is that the reality will be somewhere in between the harsh forecasts of many Brexit doubters and the rosy view of the Brexit lovers,
with an eventual significant improvement for the UK.

Firstly, that's not between the two views. It's squarely in the 'rosy view of the Brexit lovers'.

But ok, where do you see that growth coming from?


Primarily from flexibility.

As globalisation increasingly drags economic power East. We will be in a much better position, outside of the EU, to react to that.

Secondly, if America adopts a more protectionist agenda, as seems likely, to counter the shift in global economies, we are much better placed than the EU to take advantage of that and ride on the coat tails of it.

As I've said before, I believe the EU is a failing and doomed political and economic experiment which will drag it's member states through the mud during it's decline.
1 Like #16
http://www.shaunareid.com/admin/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/bannatyne.gif
1 Like #17
colin4man

Primarily from flexibility.
As globalisation increasingly drags economic power East. We will be in a much better position, outside of the EU, to react to that.

Um, why would we be? As the finance centre of Europe at this point in time (and acknowledging the threat to jobs that Brexit provides) can you point to one way we could be in a better position outside of the EU rather than inside the EU? The EU is the largest trading bloc in the world and that provides significant leverage when dealing with nations such a China and America.


colin4man

Secondly, if America adopts a more protectionist agenda, as seems likely, to counter the shift in global economies, we are much better placed than the EU to take advantage of that and ride on the coat tails of it.

Again, how do you come to the conclusion that a more protectionist USA allows us (a nation of 65 million) to be better placed to (and this is a bizarre choice of words) 'take advantage of that'?

Firstly, in what ways do you fathom we could 'take advantage of' a more protectionist United States? Surely you must know the key areas that they'd target in any trade deal and our lack of leverage in discussions will leave us wide open to a bad deal.

Secondly, increased US trade wouldn't make up for the loss we could suffer from ditching the single market.

What's fascinating is that you're regurgitating arguments made six months ago when we had an outward looking President in power.

Now we've got a protectionist, nativist who stood at his inauguration and said 'America First' and you've not changed the record. That underlines how immune you are to reality, even when reality is changed in such a blatantly obvious way and a giant orange man spells it out for you.

But if you can come up with one specific industry that we could grow in (you could say car or farming or even finance if you fancy a giggle) through increased trade with a Trump presidency then I'll concede that you might have a shred of knowledge on trade and the economy.
2 Likes #18
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
Brexit will simply widen the gap in society.

If you are prospering then you'll likely continue to prosper although some will invariably see their jobs moved overseas. Some will go with them, others will hopefully find employment elsewhere.

If you are struggling or 'just about managing' then you'll struggle more. Price rises will impact you heavily whilst public services will see less funding. If you couldn't get on the housing ladder before, little will change and there's no great slew of jobs coming because of Brexit.

It'll sort the men from the boys.


Nonsense. Prices will not rise heavily.
2 Likes #19
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
Brexit will simply widen the gap in society.
If you are prospering then you'll likely continue to prosper although some will invariably see their jobs moved overseas. Some will go with them, others will hopefully find employment elsewhere.
If you are struggling or 'just about managing' then you'll struggle more. Price rises will impact you heavily whilst public services will see less funding. If you couldn't get on the housing ladder before, little will change and there's no great slew of jobs coming because of Brexit.
It'll sort the men from the boys.
Nonsense. Prices will not rise heavily.

'Price rises will impact you heavily'.

Small rises on essential goods will impact those who are already struggling 'heavily'. That okay? It's what I already wrote but now there's more words. Maybe that'll work.
2 Likes #20
Like most of Europe proping up the EU we have built up huge debts which need to be paid. I was sitting on the fence when it came to Brexit but did vote to remain but long term I think we will benefit and we may partially avoid a economic collapse of the eu in the future which will be worse if we remained inside.

Being able to make your own decisions and protect your own industries independently is a huge benefit. We have a huge trade deficit with Europe and are haemorrhaging money to them anyway. If the eu puts up trade barriers and duty charges it could make their products uncompetitive and we buy more goods from outside Europe. If they punish us so sterling drops in value that could have a positive effect on exports. So many things have both positive and negative effects that the actual real movement overall whether for better or worse can sometimes be quite minimal.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/09/uks-trade-deficit-with-eu-hits-record-high-just-before-brexit-vo/
1 Like #21
mutley1
http://www.shaunareid.com/admin/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/bannatyne.gif


we're all out mutley, happy days
2 Likes #22
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
Brexit will simply widen the gap in society.
If you are prospering then you'll likely continue to prosper although some will invariably see their jobs moved overseas. Some will go with them, others will hopefully find employment elsewhere.
If you are struggling or 'just about managing' then you'll struggle more. Price rises will impact you heavily whilst public services will see less funding. If you couldn't get on the housing ladder before, little will change and there's no great slew of jobs coming because of Brexit.
It'll sort the men from the boys.
Nonsense. Prices will not rise heavily.

'Price rises will impact you heavily'.

Small rises on essential goods will impact those who are already struggling 'heavily'. That okay? It's what I already wrote but now there's more words. Maybe that'll work.


Go to EU Amazon sites and compare prices. In most cases the U.K. prices are cheaper. Even with a weak pound. And your beloved EU keeps food prices £400 a year more than they should be due to subsidizing lazy French farmers and excluding many third world countries from sending us their cheaper produce.
1 Like #23
bonzobanana
We have a huge trade deficit with Europe and are haemorrhaging money to them anyway. If the eu puts up trade barriers and duty charges it could make their products uncompetitive and we buy more goods from outside Europe.

What percentage of our exports go to the EU?

What percentage of their exports go to us?

How is that a trade deficit?
2 Likes #24
landros1
Too much talk,too little action.

Thanks for this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zx1_6F-nCaw

May it plague your mind too.
1 Like #25
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
Brexit will simply widen the gap in society.
If you are prospering then you'll likely continue to prosper although some will invariably see their jobs moved overseas. Some will go with them, others will hopefully find employment elsewhere.
If you are struggling or 'just about managing' then you'll struggle more. Price rises will impact you heavily whilst public services will see less funding. If you couldn't get on the housing ladder before, little will change and there's no great slew of jobs coming because of Brexit.
It'll sort the men from the boys.
Nonsense. Prices will not rise heavily.
'Price rises will impact you heavily'.

Small rises on essential goods will impact those who are already struggling 'heavily'. That okay? It's what I already wrote but now there's more words. Maybe that'll work.

Go to EU Amazon sites and compare prices. In most cases the U.K. prices are cheaper. Even with a weak pound. And your beloved EU keeps food prices £400 a year more than they should be due to subsidizing lazy French farmers and excluding many third world countries from sending us their cheaper produce.

Compare prices on what? I'm talking about basics, food, drink, fruit etc. The weak £ has seen prices increasing on many goods and that will continue.

Now we can all say that exports will be cheaper and that is true, but how quickly are companies giving people pay rises and how many people does that really impact? The vast majority will see wages (continue to) stagnate whilst everyday goods increase in price.

This is the reality of a fall in the value of the £. No 'project fear', no lies, just plain old boring GCSE Economics.
1 Like #26
Brexit is supposedly good for the economy and the fat cats, not really good for us average joes. We get hit with higher fuel costs for the home and for travelling. We get hit as consumers as retailers make any excuse to push up prices.
3 Likes #27
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
bonzobanana
We have a huge trade deficit with Europe and are haemorrhaging money to them anyway. If the eu puts up trade barriers and duty charges it could make their products uncompetitive and we buy more goods from outside Europe.

What percentage of our exports go to the EU?

What percentage of their exports go to us?

How is that a trade deficit?


What? You're not very good at maths are you? We sell them 44% of our exports and they sell us 16% of theirs. They sell us around £70bn more in goods than we sell to them. That is a deficit. We are also the biggest market for EU goods in the world which is why all their we won't trade with you nonsense is pathetic Sabre rattling.

Edited By: mtuk1 on Jan 23, 2017 23:09: .
2 Likes #28
pothole
Brexit is supposedly good for the economy and the fat cats, not really good for us average joes. We get hit with higher fuel costs for the home and for travelling. We get hit as consumers as retailers make any excuse to push up prices.


You have a short memory. The Pound was at €1.03 in 2010 or so. There wasn't massive price rises back then.
1 Like #29
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
Brexit will simply widen the gap in society.
If you are prospering then you'll likely continue to prosper although some will invariably see their jobs moved overseas. Some will go with them, others will hopefully find employment elsewhere.
If you are struggling or 'just about managing' then you'll struggle more. Price rises will impact you heavily whilst public services will see less funding. If you couldn't get on the housing ladder before, little will change and there's no great slew of jobs coming because of Brexit.
It'll sort the men from the boys.
Nonsense. Prices will not rise heavily.
'Price rises will impact you heavily'.

Small rises on essential goods will impact those who are already struggling 'heavily'. That okay? It's what I already wrote but now there's more words. Maybe that'll work.

Go to EU Amazon sites and compare prices. In most cases the U.K. prices are cheaper. Even with a weak pound. And your beloved EU keeps food prices £400 a year more than they should be due to subsidizing lazy French farmers and excluding many third world countries from sending us their cheaper produce.

Compare prices on what? I'm talking about basics, food, drink, fruit etc. The weak £ has seen prices increasing on many goods and that will continue.

Now we can all say that exports will be cheaper and that is true, but how quickly are companies giving people pay rises and how many people does that really impact? The vast majority will see wages (continue to) stagnate whilst everyday goods increase in price.

This is the reality of a fall in the value of the £. No 'project fear', no lies, just plain old boring GCSE Economics.


And can you comment on what your beloved EU is doing is doing in relation to the CAP? Or are they above criticism?
2 Likes #30
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
bonzobanana
We have a huge trade deficit with Europe and are haemorrhaging money to them anyway. If the eu puts up trade barriers and duty charges it could make their products uncompetitive and we buy more goods from outside Europe.
What percentage of our exports go to the EU?
What percentage of their exports go to us?
How is that a trade deficit?
What? You're not very good at maths are you? We sell them 44% of our exports and they sell us 16% of theirs. They sell us around £70bn more in goods than we sell to them. That is a deficit. We are also the biggest market for EU goods in the world which is why all their we won't trade with you nonsense is pathetic Sabre rattling.

The point is that they constitute a far greater percentage of our exports than we do for them. They can threaten almost half of all our exports whereas we are talking about 10-15% for them.

When you're approaching a trade deal that matters, especially when time is a consideration (and that's ignoring the access we need for financial services exports to the EU).


mtuk1

And can you comment on what your beloved EU is doing is doing in relation to the CAP? Or are they above criticism?

The EU aren't my beloved anything. They're a flawed model, as are all trade and governmental models. I'm not arguing they're beyond reproach, I'm simply stating that the loss to our economy is far too great to simply walk away from the single market, in my opinion.

Ultimately the issue I have with trade deals with both the US and the EU is our lack of leverage compared to both markets. We've done very well out of our EU membership and we're risking all of our gains for very spurious reasons.
1 Like #31
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
bonzobanana
We have a huge trade deficit with Europe and are haemorrhaging money to them anyway. If the eu puts up trade barriers and duty charges it could make their products uncompetitive and we buy more goods from outside Europe.
What percentage of our exports go to the EU?
What percentage of their exports go to us?
How is that a trade deficit?
What? You're not very good at maths are you? We sell them 44% of our exports and they sell us 16% of theirs. They sell us around £70bn more in goods than we sell to them. That is a deficit. We are also the biggest market for EU goods in the world which is why all their we won't trade with you nonsense is pathetic Sabre rattling.

The point is that they constitute a far greater percentage of our exports than we do for them. They can threaten almost half of all our exports whereas we are talking about 10-15% for them.

When you're approaching a trade deal that matters, especially when time is a consideration (and that's ignoring the access we need for financial services exports to the EU).


mtuk1

And can you comment on what your beloved EU is doing is doing in relation to the CAP? Or are they above criticism?

The EU aren't my beloved anything. They're a flawed model, as are all trade and governmental models. I'm not arguing they're beyond reproach, I'm simply stating that the loss to our economy is far too great to simply walk away from the single market, in my opinion.

Ultimately the issue I have with trade deals with both the US and the EU is our lack of leverage compared to both markets. We've done very well out of our EU membership and we're risking all of our gains for very spurious reasons.


Wrong on both fronts.

Which is a bigger figure monetarily? 44% of U.K. to EU exports or 16% our EU to U.K. exports?

We are the biggest inward investor to the US and they are our biggest inward investor. How is that not having any leverage? I do get annoyed with people who say we are some insignificant little speck that nobody wants to trade or do business with.
#32
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
bonzobanana
We have a huge trade deficit with Europe and are haemorrhaging money to them anyway. If the eu puts up trade barriers and duty charges it could make their products uncompetitive and we buy more goods from outside Europe.
What percentage of our exports go to the EU?
What percentage of their exports go to us?
How is that a trade deficit?
What? You're not very good at maths are you? We sell them 44% of our exports and they sell us 16% of theirs. They sell us around £70bn more in goods than we sell to them. That is a deficit. We are also the biggest market for EU goods in the world which is why all their we won't trade with you nonsense is pathetic Sabre rattling.
The point is that they constitute a far greater percentage of our exports than we do for them. They can threaten almost half of all our exports whereas we are talking about 10-15% for them.
When you're approaching a trade deal that matters, especially when time is a consideration (and that's ignoring the access we need for financial services exports to the EU).
mtuk1

And can you comment on what your beloved EU is doing is doing in relation to the CAP? Or are they above criticism?
The EU aren't my beloved anything. They're a flawed model, as are all trade and governmental models. I'm not arguing they're beyond reproach, I'm simply stating that the loss to our economy is far too great to simply walk away from the single market, in my opinion.
Ultimately the issue I have with trade deals with both the US and the EU is our lack of leverage compared to both markets. We've done very well out of our EU membership and we're risking all of our gains for very spurious reasons.
Wrong on both fronts.
Which is a bigger figure monetarily? 44% of U.K. to EU exports or 16% our EU to U.K. exports?
We are the biggest inward investor to the US and they are our biggest inward investor. How is that not having any leverage? I do get annoyed with people who say we are some insignificant little speck that nobody wants to trade or do business with.

Monetarily doesn't matter. We're talking about what we represent to one another as a proportion of our total exports. 10-15% is a considerable amount but the EU represents three times that to our total exports. In a trade negotiation that constitutes leverage. It's why Brexiters will always refer to the cash figure and not the percentage because the percentage provides one thing definitively.

Context.

And I've not said we're an insignificant speck. Due to our relationship with the EU whilst outside the Euro, we've actually been in a fantastic position for inward investment. That won't stop but US banks need single market access and they'll go wherever they need to for that.

The other issue is that we have a President who has explicitly stated he wants people to buy American. Striking a new trade deal with the United States means something different now we have a protectionist in charge.
1 Like #33
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
bonzobanana
We have a huge trade deficit with Europe and are haemorrhaging money to them anyway. If the eu puts up trade barriers and duty charges it could make their products uncompetitive and we buy more goods from outside Europe.
What percentage of our exports go to the EU?
What percentage of their exports go to us?
How is that a trade deficit?
What? You're not very good at maths are you? We sell them 44% of our exports and they sell us 16% of theirs. They sell us around £70bn more in goods than we sell to them. That is a deficit. We are also the biggest market for EU goods in the world which is why all their we won't trade with you nonsense is pathetic Sabre rattling.
The point is that they constitute a far greater percentage of our exports than we do for them. They can threaten almost half of all our exports whereas we are talking about 10-15% for them.
When you're approaching a trade deal that matters, especially when time is a consideration (and that's ignoring the access we need for financial services exports to the EU).
mtuk1

And can you comment on what your beloved EU is doing is doing in relation to the CAP? Or are they above criticism?
The EU aren't my beloved anything. They're a flawed model, as are all trade and governmental models. I'm not arguing they're beyond reproach, I'm simply stating that the loss to our economy is far too great to simply walk away from the single market, in my opinion.
Ultimately the issue I have with trade deals with both the US and the EU is our lack of leverage compared to both markets. We've done very well out of our EU membership and we're risking all of our gains for very spurious reasons.
Wrong on both fronts.
Which is a bigger figure monetarily? 44% of U.K. to EU exports or 16% our EU to U.K. exports?
We are the biggest inward investor to the US and they are our biggest inward investor. How is that not having any leverage? I do get annoyed with people who say we are some insignificant little speck that nobody wants to trade or do business with.

Monetarily doesn't matter. We're talking about what we represent to one another as a proportion of our total exports. 10-15% is a considerable amount but the EU represents three times that to our total exports. In a trade negotiation that constitutes leverage. It's why Brexiters will always refer to the cash figure and not the percentage because the percentage provides one thing definitively.

Context.

And I've not said we're an insignificant speck. Due to our relationship with the EU whilst outside the Euro, we've actually been in a fantastic position for inward investment. That won't stop but US banks need single market access and they'll go wherever they need to for that.

The other issue is that we have a President who has explicitly stated he wants people to buy American. Striking a new trade deal with the United States means something different now we have a protectionist in charge.


Monetarily doesn't matter? I hope you don't run a business. I've already said we are worth £70bn more in goods and services to them, then they are to us. They are not going to want to lose us. We won't want to lose them.

President Trump has said what you've said, I agree. But there are 2 things in our favour, being half British, he's much more pro British than President Obama was. And he will be quite aware of the UK's strategic position in terms of intelligence and our economic position being their biggest inward investor. He's going to be pro American, but he will also give us a good deal too. He also despises the EU and who can blame him? He understands the EU's democratic deficit too.

Edited By: mtuk1 on Jan 23, 2017 23:41: .
1 Like #34
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
colin4man

Primarily from flexibility.
As globalisation increasingly drags economic power East. We will be in a much better position, outside of the EU, to react to that.
Um, why would we be? As the finance centre of Europe at this point in time (and acknowledging the threat to jobs that Brexit provides) can you point to one way we could be in a better position outside of the EU rather than inside the EU? The EU is the largest trading bloc in the world and that provides significant leverage when dealing with nations such a China and America.
colin4man

Secondly, if America adopts a more protectionist agenda, as seems likely, to counter the shift in global economies, we are much better placed than the EU to take advantage of that and ride on the coat tails of it.
Again, how do you come to the conclusion that a more protectionist USA allows us (a nation of 65 million) to be better placed to (and this is a bizarre choice of words) 'take advantage of that'?
Firstly, in what ways do you fathom we could 'take advantage of' a more protectionist United States? Surely you must know the key areas that they'd target in any trade deal and our lack of leverage in discussions will leave us wide open to a bad deal.
Secondly, increased US trade wouldn't make up for the loss we could suffer from ditching the single market.
What's fascinating is that you're regurgitating arguments made six months ago when we had an outward looking President in power.
Now we've got a protectionist, nativist who stood at his inauguration and said 'America First' and you've not changed the record. That underlines how immune you are to reality, even when reality is changed in such a blatantly obvious way and a giant orange man spells it out for you.
But if you can come up with one specific industry that we could grow in (you could say car or farming or even finance if you fancy a giggle) through increased trade with a Trump presidency then I'll concede that you might have a shred of knowledge on trade and the economy.

Again you seem to have a very narrow view on the world, but let's continue....

can you point to one way we could be in a better position outside of the EU

The leverage of being in the EU is tempered by the other 27 EU nations needing to agree terms before a deal can be signed, and, as was the case with the EU Canadian deal, quite often regions within those 27 nations need to sign off on the deal. This makes the whole process far more complex than would be the case if the UK were agreeing deals on their own.

I've never said trade with the US will increase or replace anything so not sure what you mean by the comments about 'six months ago' but.......
one the advantages of a protectionist USA are that they cannot be isolationist. Therefore they need access to the rest of the world including Europe for their exports/services etc. In this world it is very likely that the UK would be a far better place for US firms to do business than the EU. So growth would come from increased jobs, tax receipts and spending etc.
There are other advantages.

Let me ask you a simple question. What is your vision of the EU in 10 years time?
#35
Not read anything on here about us going begging for trade deals and places like india and Australia are willing but only if laxing immigration is part of the deal.

So much for taking control of immigration.
#36
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
bonzobanana
We have a huge trade deficit with Europe and are haemorrhaging money to them anyway. If the eu puts up trade barriers and duty charges it could make their products uncompetitive and we buy more goods from outside Europe.
What percentage of our exports go to the EU?
What percentage of their exports go to us?
How is that a trade deficit?
What? You're not very good at maths are you? We sell them 44% of our exports and they sell us 16% of theirs. They sell us around £70bn more in goods than we sell to them. That is a deficit. We are also the biggest market for EU goods in the world which is why all their we won't trade with you nonsense is pathetic Sabre rattling.
The point is that they constitute a far greater percentage of our exports than we do for them. They can threaten almost half of all our exports whereas we are talking about 10-15% for them.
When you're approaching a trade deal that matters, especially when time is a consideration (and that's ignoring the access we need for financial services exports to the EU).
mtuk1

And can you comment on what your beloved EU is doing is doing in relation to the CAP? Or are they above criticism?
The EU aren't my beloved anything. They're a flawed model, as are all trade and governmental models. I'm not arguing they're beyond reproach, I'm simply stating that the loss to our economy is far too great to simply walk away from the single market, in my opinion.
Ultimately the issue I have with trade deals with both the US and the EU is our lack of leverage compared to both markets. We've done very well out of our EU membership and we're risking all of our gains for very spurious reasons.
Wrong on both fronts.
Which is a bigger figure monetarily? 44% of U.K. to EU exports or 16% our EU to U.K. exports?
We are the biggest inward investor to the US and they are our biggest inward investor. How is that not having any leverage? I do get annoyed with people who say we are some insignificant little speck that nobody wants to trade or do business with.
Monetarily doesn't matter. We're talking about what we represent to one another as a proportion of our total exports. 10-15% is a considerable amount but the EU represents three times that to our total exports. In a trade negotiation that constitutes leverage. It's why Brexiters will always refer to the cash figure and not the percentage because the percentage provides one thing definitively.
Context.
And I've not said we're an insignificant speck. Due to our relationship with the EU whilst outside the Euro, we've actually been in a fantastic position for inward investment. That won't stop but US banks need single market access and they'll go wherever they need to for that.
The other issue is that we have a President who has explicitly stated he wants people to buy American. Striking a new trade deal with the United States means something different now we have a protectionist in charge.
Monetarily doesn't matter? I hope you don't run a business. I've already said we are worth £70bn more in goods and services to them, then they are to us. They are not going to want to lose us. We won't want to lose them.
President Trump has said what you've said, I agree. But there are 2 things in our favour, being half British, he's much more pro British than President Obama was. And he will be quite aware of the UK's strategic position in terms of intelligence and our economic position being their biggest inward investor. He's going to be pro American, but he will also give us a good deal too. He also despises the EU and who can blame him? He understands the EU's democratic deficit too.

£70 billion is a lot of money but again, you have to place these figures in context and that context is the total exports of both parties. We represent a fraction of what they represent in terms of total exports. Maybe I can think of an analogy to explain this to you in the morning. Neither wants to lose the other, but they have far greater leverage when negotiating a deal.

Trump's primary focus is the US and he wants people to buy US. Being British doesn't mean anything because all he's looking at is securing a second term and he does that by bringing jobs back to America. If he can increase how much farmers sell in Britain then he'll target that, or he'll look to make it easier for American healthcare companies to take areas of the NHS. We're very much the junior partner in any deal, whereas being part of the EU and negotiating a deal (whilst longer and for good reason) would've possibly seen us in a stronger position. Although that's by no means certain.
#37
colin4man
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
colin4man

Primarily from flexibility.
As globalisation increasingly drags economic power East. We will be in a much better position, outside of the EU, to react to that.
Um, why would we be? As the finance centre of Europe at this point in time (and acknowledging the threat to jobs that Brexit provides) can you point to one way we could be in a better position outside of the EU rather than inside the EU? The EU is the largest trading bloc in the world and that provides significant leverage when dealing with nations such a China and America.
colin4man

Secondly, if America adopts a more protectionist agenda, as seems likely, to counter the shift in global economies, we are much better placed than the EU to take advantage of that and ride on the coat tails of it.
Again, how do you come to the conclusion that a more protectionist USA allows us (a nation of 65 million) to be better placed to (and this is a bizarre choice of words) 'take advantage of that'?
Firstly, in what ways do you fathom we could 'take advantage of' a more protectionist United States? Surely you must know the key areas that they'd target in any trade deal and our lack of leverage in discussions will leave us wide open to a bad deal.
Secondly, increased US trade wouldn't make up for the loss we could suffer from ditching the single market.
What's fascinating is that you're regurgitating arguments made six months ago when we had an outward looking President in power.
Now we've got a protectionist, nativist who stood at his inauguration and said 'America First' and you've not changed the record. That underlines how immune you are to reality, even when reality is changed in such a blatantly obvious way and a giant orange man spells it out for you.
But if you can come up with one specific industry that we could grow in (you could say car or farming or even finance if you fancy a giggle) through increased trade with a Trump presidency then I'll concede that you might have a shred of knowledge on trade and the economy.
Again you seem to have a very narrow view on the world, but let's continue....

can you point to one way we could be in a better position outside of the EU

The leverage of being in the EU is tempered by the other 27 EU nations needing to agree terms before a deal can be signed, and, as was the case with the EU Canadian deal, quite often regions within those 27 nations need to sign off on the deal. This makes the whole process far more complex than would be the case if the UK were agreeing deals on their own.

I've never said trade with the US will increase or replace anything so not sure what you mean by the comments about 'six months ago' but.......
one the advantages of a protectionist USA are that they cannot be isolationist. Therefore they need access to the rest of the world including Europe for their exports/services etc. In this world it is very likely that the UK would be a far better place for US firms to do business than the EU. So growth would come from increased jobs, tax receipts and spending etc.
There are other advantages.

Let me ask you a simple question. What is your vision of the EU in 10 years time?

That is such a laughably poor answer that I can't break it all down now, but you couldn't even point to one specific industry that you thought we could grow our exports in. It's a very simple question and I even gave you some options.

Where you were right is that trade deals between trading blocs are made more complicated by the varied interests of the parties. That's the trade-off you make for leverage. We have one aim apparently but we're a smaller market than the EU.

My view of the EU in 10 years - complex. We seem to be entering a new period of trade wars with Trump looking to introduce punitive tariffs and China probably becoming more outward-looking. Therefore you'll have the EU, US and China as the three large powers and us probably struggling for relevancy. Maybe we can prosper through low taxation and relying on our services but I think our manufacturing sector is shredded through a combination of EU land grabs and Trump's tariffs.

Either way, low-skilled workers are going to struggle in the UK because they don't fit with May's vision.
2 Likes #38
I may be a bit late to the table regarding debate over Brexit, but after retrospectively listening to the debate on forums such as this, I do believe Brexit was the right and sensible decision.

With charges due to be introduced into the healthcare system (for non UK citizens), that will soon ease the pressure on our doctors and hospitals.

Additionally, with the withdrawal of access to the benefits system (for non UK citizens), that will also help remove fuel to the fire that's been driving up prices and rentals.

Without Housing benefit, low skilled workers will have no option other than to try Germany, France or elsewhere in the EU to settle.

Pressure off healthcare. Pressure off public services. Pressure off housing.

On the downside, I'm not too sure how Germany will cope though what with the imminent collapse of the EU.
3 Likes #39
coathanger
I may be a bit late to the table regarding debate over Brexit, but after retrospectively listening to the debate on forums such as this, I do believe Brexit was the right and sensible decision.

With charges due to be introduced into the healthcare system (for non UK citizens), that will soon ease the pressure on our doctors and hospitals.

Additionally, with the withdrawal of access to the benefits system (for non UK citizens), that will also help remove fuel to the fire that's been driving up prices and rentals.

Without Housing benefit, low skilled workers will have no option other than to try Germany, France or elsewhere in the EU to settle.

Pressure off healthcare. Pressure off public services. Pressure off housing.

On the downside, I'm not too sure how Germany will cope though what with the imminent collapse of the EU.


don't forget all the vacant property in and around the capital, that according to heawd all the bankers will leave.
2 Likes #40
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
mtuk1
HotEnglishAndWelshDeals
bonzobanana
We have a huge trade deficit with Europe and are haemorrhaging money to them anyway. If the eu puts up trade barriers and duty charges it could make their products uncompetitive and we buy more goods from outside Europe.
What percentage of our exports go to the EU?
What percentage of their exports go to us?
How is that a trade deficit?
What? You're not very good at maths are you? We sell them 44% of our exports and they sell us 16% of theirs. They sell us around £70bn more in goods than we sell to them. That is a deficit. We are also the biggest market for EU goods in the world which is why all their we won't trade with you nonsense is pathetic Sabre rattling.
The point is that they constitute a far greater percentage of our exports than we do for them. They can threaten almost half of all our exports whereas we are talking about 10-15% for them.
When you're approaching a trade deal that matters, especially when time is a consideration (and that's ignoring the access we need for financial services exports to the EU).
mtuk1

And can you comment on what your beloved EU is doing is doing in relation to the CAP? Or are they above criticism?
The EU aren't my beloved anything. They're a flawed model, as are all trade and governmental models. I'm not arguing they're beyond reproach, I'm simply stating that the loss to our economy is far too great to simply walk away from the single market, in my opinion.
Ultimately the issue I have with trade deals with both the US and the EU is our lack of leverage compared to both markets. We've done very well out of our EU membership and we're risking all of our gains for very spurious reasons.
Wrong on both fronts.
Which is a bigger figure monetarily? 44% of U.K. to EU exports or 16% our EU to U.K. exports?
We are the biggest inward investor to the US and they are our biggest inward investor. How is that not having any leverage? I do get annoyed with people who say we are some insignificant little speck that nobody wants to trade or do business with.
Monetarily doesn't matter. We're talking about what we represent to one another as a proportion of our total exports. 10-15% is a considerable amount but the EU represents three times that to our total exports. In a trade negotiation that constitutes leverage. It's why Brexiters will always refer to the cash figure and not the percentage because the percentage provides one thing definitively.
Context.
And I've not said we're an insignificant speck. Due to our relationship with the EU whilst outside the Euro, we've actually been in a fantastic position for inward investment. That won't stop but US banks need single market access and they'll go wherever they need to for that.
The other issue is that we have a President who has explicitly stated he wants people to buy American. Striking a new trade deal with the United States means something different now we have a protectionist in charge.
Monetarily doesn't matter? I hope you don't run a business. I've already said we are worth £70bn more in goods and services to them, then they are to us. They are not going to want to lose us. We won't want to lose them.
President Trump has said what you've said, I agree. But there are 2 things in our favour, being half British, he's much more pro British than President Obama was. And he will be quite aware of the UK's strategic position in terms of intelligence and our economic position being their biggest inward investor. He's going to be pro American, but he will also give us a good deal too. He also despises the EU and who can blame him? He understands the EU's democratic deficit too.

£70 billion is a lot of money but again, you have to place these figures in context and that context is the total exports of both parties. We represent a fraction of what they represent in terms of total exports. Maybe I can think of an analogy to explain this to you in the morning. Neither wants to lose the other, but they have far greater leverage when negotiating a deal.

Trump's primary focus is the US and he wants people to buy US. Being British doesn't mean anything because all he's looking at is securing a second term and he does that by bringing jobs back to America. If he can increase how much farmers sell in Britain then he'll target that, or he'll look to make it easier for American healthcare companies to take areas of the NHS. We're very much the junior partner in any deal, whereas being part of the EU and negotiating a deal (whilst longer and for good reason) would've possibly seen us in a stronger position. Although that's by no means certain.


Lol. You're sticking your fingers in your ears and not listening again. I give up. I expect from your obtuse and disingenuous answers that's what you wanted.

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