The £ likely to get Weaker? - HotUKDeals
We use cookie files to improve site functionality and personalisation. By continuing to use HUKD, you accept our cookie and privacy policy.
Get the HUKD app free at Google Play

Search Error

An error occurred when searching, please try again!

Login / Sign UpSubmit

The £ likely to get Weaker?

ajay87 Avatar
8y, 1m agoPosted 8 years, 1 month ago
Going to Bulgaria in January.

Bulgaria use the Lev. Been at 2.52 for a while, floating between .49 and .52. Today it has lost 4p against the pound, so question is do i buy now as it is likely to weaken even more??

Thanks :-)
ajay87 Avatar
8y, 1m agoPosted 8 years, 1 month ago
Options

All Comments

(11) Jump to unreadPost a comment
Comments/page:
1 Like #1
lol whats going on with this thread?


pound aint as weak as the ozzie dollar i have to say getting 2.50 at mo was just breaking 2 not long ago
1 Like #2
You should be ok with the Lev as currencies in this part of the world are looking even more precarious than sterling (which is being clobbered thanks to the idiots taht have been in charge for the last decade being found out). They have bounced a bit thanks to interest rate rises yesterday (300 bps in Hungary for example), but in such times such actions tend to have little affect or even the opposite to the desired affect (see Iceland a coupls of weeks ago and sterlings less than graceful exit from the ERM)
#3
If someone knew the answer to this one they could make a fortune out of currency speculation. Your guess is as good as anyone's. :roll:
#4
tony_s1
If someone knew the answer to this one they could make a fortune out of currency speculation. Your guess is as good as anyone's. :roll:


Yes and some people do.

Know where your coming from, but asking really is it likely too, not is it.
#5
I would hold off

As Andina noted, although the £ has weakened against the $ and the Yen chances of it weakening against countries such as Bulgaria are slim to say the least

I would actually anticipate for it to widen dramatically
#6
Andina
You should be ok with the Lev as currencies in this part of the world are looking even more precarious than sterling (which is being clobbered thanks to the idiots taht have been in charge for the last decade being found out). They have bounced a bit thanks to interest rate rises yesterday (300 bps in Hungary for example), but in such times such actions tend to have little affect or even the opposite to the desired affect (see Iceland a coupls of weeks ago and sterlings less than graceful exit from the ERM)



It isn't only "idiots" that have been in charge in the last decade - far from it and furthermore the pound had been strong in the past couple of years. The interest rate cut means that it is not worth depositing sterling and also the money used to bail out the banks causes all that money to be at risk. Furthermore, increase in inflation reduces the buying power of sterling. Consequently, it is not the "idiots" in charge but the consumer also has a part to play. A couple of years ago, the banks were raking in money as credit was cheap and in abundance but the realism is that nobody is at faule - just a natural correction to a false boom. Your reference to "last decade" is a very unconscious statement to make.

As for predicting whether it will drop further, nobody knows - not even the financial magazines that tip stock value and currency value. If they knew they wouldn't be selling the magazines. The rate at the moment is the correct rate that reflects current conditions. Of course, there will be winners such as lower mortgage payments for some people and high street prices have to go down. Obviously the mdeia doesn't reflect upon this because it is more sensational to publicise doom and gloom.
#7
ElliottC
It isn't only "idiots" that have been in charge in the last decade - far from it and furthermore the pound had been strong in the past couple of years. The interest rate cut means that it is not worth depositing sterling and also the money used to bail out the banks causes all that money to be at risk. Furthermore, increase in inflation reduces the buying power of sterling. Consequently, it is not the "idiots" in charge but the consumer also has a part to play. A couple of years ago, the banks were raking in money as credit was cheap and in abundance but the realism is that nobody is at faule - just a natural correction to a false boom. Your reference to "last decade" is a very unconscious statement to make.

As for predicting whether it will drop further, nobody knows - not even the financial magazines that tip stock value and currency value. If they knew they wouldn't be selling the magazines. The rate at the moment is the correct rate that reflects current conditions. Of course, there will be winners such as lower mortgage payments for some people and high street prices have to go down. Obviously the mdeia doesn't reflect upon this because it is more sensational to publicise doom and gloom.


In your opinion. There arent many major currencies the pound has done well against over the last couple of years. Dollar weakness was largely because of interest rate differentials. Now we are trading off the back of fundamentals.... hence the pound being whacked. As everyone knows what a mess our country is in compared to others.

Unfortunately the current government has managed to achieve growth per annum nothing more than in line with the average for the last 100 years on the back of the global boom (it was quick to take the glory of this feeble growth (largely thanks to economic reforms from the eighties) but not so quick to shoulder responsibility as it starts to go wrong, admittedly exacerbated by external factors). High taxes, the proceeds of which were frittered away on nothing but a huge bureaucratic public sector (no, not doctors and nurses, but overwhelmingly pen pushers etc) has meant that it's very hard to increase taxes now (and if they do revenue probably wont even rise, see the laffer curve). No money was saved and no money was used to pay back our massive debt which means we have to borrow more and our economy will suffer a longer and more painful recession than any of our economic rivals that a) didnt waste all the receipts of the good times b) made the most of it with shrewd investment decisions and c) didnt milk the taxpayer for everything they could when the going was good. The rainy day had to come sometime.

Remember the same man who came to the rescue of the banks (by copying the Swedish model from the 80s (?) and nationalising them was the man who not only sold our gold at $275 but announced he planned to do so! An idiot, but only too typical an example of Labours economic know how!

PS. You wont see many financial magazines on city trading desks... theyre for the mug punters at home. Most in the know have been selling cable (£ v $) for months... The only surprise was that it took so long to finally move with any gusto. Dont forget everyone else cut rates a couple of weeks ago and is suffering from similar inflation concerns.
#8
Good post Andina. Early 90s in re Swedish banking probs FYI

I would have to agree with Andina in re mags. No mags lying around on tradings desks as they would be out of date by the time they get published especially in this environment

Cable and the unwinding of the carry trades (more specifically yen vs US / EUR) have been the main plays for the last 3 months or so.

Another 50 bps cut is a definite for 2008 - with a 3% or so target for 2009
#9
Andina
In your opinion. There arent many major currencies the pound has done well against over the last couple of years. Dollar weakness was largely because of interest rate differentials. Now we are trading off the back of fundamentals.... hence the pound being whacked. As everyone knows what a mess our country is in compared to others.

Unfortunately the current government has managed to achieve growth per annum nothing more than in line with the average for the last 100 years on the back of the global boom (it was quick to take the glory of this feeble growth (largely thanks to economic reforms from the eighties) but not so quick to shoulder responsibility as it starts to go wrong, admittedly exacerbated by external factors). High taxes, the proceeds of which were frittered away on nothing but a huge bureaucratic public sector (no, not doctors and nurses, but overwhelmingly pen pushers etc) has meant that it's very hard to increase taxes now (and if they do revenue probably wont even rise, see the laffer curve). No money was saved and no money was used to pay back our massive debt which means we have to borrow more and our economy will suffer a longer and more painful recession than any of our economic rivals that a) didnt waste all the receipts of the good times b) made the most of it with shrewd investment decisions and c) didnt milk the taxpayer for everything they could when the going was good. The rainy day had to come sometime.

Remember the same man who came to the rescue of the banks (by copying the Swedish model from the 80s (?) and nationalising them was the man who not only sold our gold at $275 but announced he planned to do so! An idiot, but only too typical an example of Labours economic know how!

PS. You wont see many financial magazines on city trading desks... theyre for the mug punters at home. Most in the know have been selling cable (£ v $) for months... The only surprise was that it took so long to finally move with any gusto. Dont forget everyone else cut rates a couple of weeks ago and is suffering from similar inflation concerns.


Yes, a very stimulating post. Sweden's banking problems were indeed caused by a very badly managed deregulation leading to a house price boom that collapsed but one of the responses was to raise interest rates to 500% to protect the currency. In today's climate, it isn't purely poor management that is accountable for the weak Sterling. Factors such as a decline in economic growth ensues lower interest rates and as mentioned, my opinion or not, this does reduce the buying power of Sterling. Paradoxically, consumer debt has also played a role in a decrease in interest rates after initially setting in motion incremental interest rate rises - purely due to the debts being insuperable for many consumers.

Totally agree with the magazines but not purely for the obsolescence of the information but also for the predictions that are made which tend to be very subjective.
banned#10
Andina;3273464
In your opinion. There arent many major currencies the pound has done well against over the last couple of years. Dollar weakness was largely because of interest rate differentials. Now we are trading off the back of fundamentals.... hence the pound being whacked. As everyone knows what a mess our country is in compared to others.

Unfortunately the current government has managed to achieve growth per annum nothing more than in line with the average for the last 100 years on the back of the global boom (it was quick to take the glory of this feeble growth (largely thanks to economic reforms from the eighties) but not so quick to shoulder responsibility as it starts to go wrong, admittedly exacerbated by external factors). High taxes, the proceeds of which were frittered away on nothing but a huge bureaucratic public sector (no, not doctors and nurses, but overwhelmingly pen pushers etc) has meant that it's very hard to increase taxes now (and if they do revenue probably wont even rise, see the laffer curve). No money was saved and no money was used to pay back our massive debt which means we have to borrow more and our economy will suffer a longer and more painful recession than any of our economic rivals that a) didnt waste all the receipts of the good times b) made the most of it with shrewd investment decisions and c) didnt milk the taxpayer for everything they could when the going was good. The rainy day had to come sometime.

Remember the same man who came to the rescue of the banks (by copying the Swedish model from the 80s (?) and nationalising them was the man who not only sold our gold at $275 but announced he planned to do so! An idiot, but only too typical an example of Labours economic know how!

PS. You wont see many financial magazines on city trading desks... theyre for the mug punters at home. Most in the know have been selling cable (£ v $) for months... The only surprise was that it took so long to finally move with any gusto. Dont forget everyone else cut rates a couple of weeks ago and is suffering from similar inflation concerns.

Great post! Still shocks me that there are people out there still eager to vote Labour in yet again. They have crippled this country in the long term.
#11
csiman
Great post! Still shocks me that there are people out there still eager to vote Labour in yet again. They have crippled this country in the long term.


Aw shucks *blush*

Post a Comment

You don't need an account to leave a comment. Just enter your email address. We'll keep it private.

...OR log in with your social account

...OR comment using your social account

Thanks for your comment! Keep it up!
We just need to have a quick look and it will be live soon.
The community is happy to hear your opinion! Keep contributing!