Covid Weekly/Daily Death Count To Be Scrapped

47
Posted 11th Aug
Starting with Scotland - "No deaths have been recorded north of the border among patients who tested positive for coronavirus in the last 28 days.

The National Records of Scotland has said deaths are now back at “average levels” and while fatalities remain “very low” the organisation will be reverting back to publishing monthly, rather than weekly, data."

England to fall in line too soon as Matt Hancock admits to 'statistical flaw' that means officials are 'over-exaggerating' the daily toll.

Finally some truth, balance, clarity and hope.

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Can't stand Hancock but here's the simple fact; PHE figures (the offical UK figures that ministers receive but do not prepare) show that NO-ONE in Blightly has ever recovered from COVID. That's why we have such a high toll of COVID deaths. Yup. Its true. Go to the website and look at the column for recovered cases. It says N/A

France and others search for the actual cause of death if 28 days elapse from recovery. That's why they have relatively low deaths per million.
Edited by: "ccnp" 11th Aug
47 Comments
Good, about time, a load of doom and gloom which scares people into sitting indoors for the rest of their lives.
‘Over-exaggerating’ must be worse than plain old exaggerating. Maybe they are content with exaggerated figures but draw the line at over-exaggerated figures. Truth, balance, clarity & hope - sounds like a camp superhero slogan; pass me the sick bucket
Jump_Out_Gang11/08/2020 10:06

‘Over-exaggerating’ must be worse than plain old exaggerating. Maybe they a …‘Over-exaggerating’ must be worse than plain old exaggerating. Maybe they are content with exaggerated figures but draw the line at over-exaggerated figures. Truth, balance, clarity & hope - sounds like a camp superhero slogan; pass me the sick bucket


Kratos6911/08/2020 09:49

Good, about time, a load of doom and gloom which scares people into …Good, about time, a load of doom and gloom which scares people into sitting indoors for the rest of their lives.


How about Doom, Gloom & Sonic Booms. How about that for a cool slogan
Jump_Out_Gang11/08/2020 10:12

How about Doom, Gloom & Sonic Booms. How about that for a cool slogan …How about Doom, Gloom & Sonic Booms. How about that for a cool slogan


Wait did Guile from SF2 already claim that one
joyf453611/08/2020 10:16

Comment deleted


You can see from the news that appetite is waning for this COVID-19 product. Oh sure it’s making a comeback that’d make Take That proud but let’s not talk about all that. Let’s move onto something new now; how about oh I don’t know tips for surviving in a heatwave even though it’s raining outside
Can't stand Hancock but here's the simple fact; PHE figures (the offical UK figures that ministers receive but do not prepare) show that NO-ONE in Blightly has ever recovered from COVID. That's why we have such a high toll of COVID deaths. Yup. Its true. Go to the website and look at the column for recovered cases. It says N/A

France and others search for the actual cause of death if 28 days elapse from recovery. That's why they have relatively low deaths per million.
Edited by: "ccnp" 11th Aug
ccnp11/08/2020 10:56

Can't stand Hancock but here's the simple fact; PHE figures (the offical …Can't stand Hancock but here's the simple fact; PHE figures (the offical UK figures that ministers receive but do not prepare) show that NO-ONE in Blightly has ever recovered from COVID. That's why we have such a high toll of COVID deaths. Yup. Its true. Go to the website and look at the column for recovered cases. It says N/AFrance and others search for the actual cause of death if 28 days elapse from recovery. That's why they have relatively low deaths per million.


What do you mean no one ever recovered? I recovered or at least I thought I had
Jump_Out_Gang11/08/2020 11:44

What do you mean no one ever recovered? I recovered or at …What do you mean no one ever recovered? I recovered or at least I thought I had


Statistically you must be dead.

Any good is it?
splatsplatsplat11/08/2020 12:04

Statistically you must be dead. Any good is it?


Well it’s alright like. I feel fine. The sun is shining & I’m not in work. Being dead ain’t half bad you know
Jump_Out_Gang11/08/2020 11:44

What do you mean no one ever recovered? I recovered or at …What do you mean no one ever recovered? I recovered or at least I thought I had


Not according to PHE (Public Health England). If you die today, you will be scored as having had a COVID related death EVEN IF you step under a bus. WHich I of course hope you won't. Delighted for you and your family/friends sake that you recovered..
ccnp11/08/2020 12:17

Not according to PHE (Public Health England). If you die today, you will …Not according to PHE (Public Health England). If you die today, you will be scored as having had a COVID related death EVEN IF you step under a bus. WHich I of course hope you won't. Delighted for you and your family/friends sake that you recovered..


Ah well see I live in Wales - Wales are always behind the rest of the country - they haven’t noticed I’m dead yet 🙃
Edited by: "Jump_Out_Gang" 11th Aug
Jump_Out_Gang11/08/2020 11:44

What do you mean no one ever recovered? I recovered or at …What do you mean no one ever recovered? I recovered or at least I thought I had


Very glad you recovered and didn't join the 45,000 - 65,000 who didn't.
ccnp11/08/2020 10:56

Can't stand Hancock but here's the simple fact; PHE figures (the offical …Can't stand Hancock but here's the simple fact; PHE figures (the offical UK figures that ministers receive but do not prepare) show that NO-ONE in Blightly has ever recovered from COVID. That's why we have such a high toll of COVID deaths. Yup. Its true. Go to the website and look at the column for recovered cases. It says N/AFrance and others search for the actual cause of death if 28 days elapse from recovery. That's why they have relatively low deaths per million.


Are you saying that the recovered figure is being allocated to the death figure?
joyf453611/08/2020 12:32

Very glad you recovered and didn't join the 45,000 - 65,000 who didn't.


Well apparently I didn’t recover so hold up on your joy, joy
ccnp11/08/2020 10:56

Can't stand Hancock but here's the simple fact; PHE figures (the offical …Can't stand Hancock but here's the simple fact; PHE figures (the offical UK figures that ministers receive but do not prepare) show that NO-ONE in Blightly has ever recovered from COVID. That's why we have such a high toll of COVID deaths. Yup. Its true. Go to the website and look at the column for recovered cases. It says N/AFrance and others search for the actual cause of death if 28 days elapse from recovery. That's why they have relatively low deaths per million.


Regardless of (non)recoveries, there is a certain sensibility in ceasing to directly compare post-March2020 death rate for a specific period compared to same period in previous years. After all: people can only die once, and tragically the people that have been directly taken early by effects of CV19 effectively lessen the death rate in future periods had they not been taken early, thereby skewing comparison figures.
HappyShopper11/08/2020 13:00

Are you saying that the recovered figure is being allocated to the death …Are you saying that the recovered figure is being allocated to the death figure?


Not quite. As far as PHE are concerned, no-one recovers. Look at teh columns. So when you die after having had COVID 3 months ago, very mildly and have fully recovered and then walk under a bus, PHE will count your death as COVID related.
ccnp11/08/2020 13:48

Not quite. As far as PHE are concerned, no-one recovers. Look at teh …Not quite. As far as PHE are concerned, no-one recovers. Look at teh columns. So when you die after having had COVID 3 months ago, very mildly and have fully recovered and then walk under a bus, PHE will count your death as COVID related.


Thing that really scares be about it (aside from a chance of dying of course) is CAN you fully recover from Covid i.e. to the exact same state you were before? There has been no long term study of the after effects yet (because it obviously hasn't been around long enough) but there are reports that even mild cases suffer with reduced lung capacity and cognitive ability afterwards and they said it could well be permanent.

That is the really scary thing TBH, could think you got through it fine, then find in later years it's cut your life expectancy in half...
Edited by: "ST3123" 11th Aug
ST312311/08/2020 17:08

Thing that really scares be about it (aside from a chance of dying of …Thing that really scares be about it (aside from a chance of dying of course) is CAN you fully recover from Covid i.e. to the exact same state you were before? There has been no long term study of the after effects yet (because it obviously hasn't been around long enough) but there are reports that even mild cases suffer with reduced lung capacity and cognitive ability afterwards and they said it could well be permanent. That is the really scary thing TBH, could think you got through it fine, then find in later years it's cut your life expectancy in half...


To be honest, after effects can be felt from a wide range of diseases/illnesses. Especially when the immune system is involved. Complications involving blood circulation and lack of oxygen to the brain can be a consequence for any illness. We really don't fully recover due to these aspects. But yeah it is too early to have any definite outcome related results.
If they scrap it in England it will be because a resurgence is coming (if anyone hasn't noticed).
Willy_Wonka11/08/2020 17:23

If they scrap it in England it will be because a resurgence is coming (if …If they scrap it in England it will be because a resurgence is coming (if anyone hasn't noticed).


No. They will start reporting accurate data on a weekly basis.

Quite, quiet unbelievable that we didn't have a good system in place in the year 2020 to report deaths. Utterly astounding that we dont have a good system in place after 4-5 months of COVID.

Although I still have my doubts. My father's death certificate was a simple trawl through his file to list any illness he'd had in the prior 20 (I kid you not) years starting with a cancer that had been declared fully cured. They aren't called quacks for nothing. Clever they may be but a large dose of humility wouldn't go amiss with most. The one phrase very few of them use is 'I/we don't know'. Instead they trot out some witches cauldron rememdy, especially in the private sector
Jump_Out_Gang11/08/2020 11:44

What do you mean no one ever recovered? I recovered or at …What do you mean no one ever recovered? I recovered or at least I thought I had



What they mean is. If somebody catches Covid-19 and then 6 months later dies of heart failure, the patient still goes down as a covid death. This is incorrect as that then means that nobody can ever recover from Covid because no matter what kills them and when they will always be reported as a Covid death
MonkeyMan9011/08/2020 18:51

What they mean is. If somebody catches Covid-19 and then 6 months later …What they mean is. If somebody catches Covid-19 and then 6 months later dies of heart failure, the patient still goes down as a covid death. This is incorrect as that then means that nobody can ever recover from Covid because no matter what kills them and when they will always be reported as a Covid death


So I will die of Covid?
MonkeyMan9011/08/2020 19:36

I don't know lol


Well it’s half a job for half the pay I’m afraid
splatsplatsplat11/08/2020 12:04

Statistically you must be dead. Any good is it?


When they die it will go down as covid. That's the problem.
So, this image of Italian Army vehicles brought in to move dozens of coffins from Bergamo was part of a conspiracy, too?

news.sky.com/sto…994
Edited by: "gorgo2015" 11th Aug
Willy_Wonka11/08/2020 17:23

If they scrap it in England it will be because a resurgence is coming (if …If they scrap it in England it will be because a resurgence is coming (if anyone hasn't noticed).


Current new cases are unchanged in the last month as a ratio of tests. Wait until they achieve 500, 000 tests per day. Our figures will look awful. Deaths are going to be reported over 3 separate daily figures which is ridiculous (deaths from people who tested positive ever, last 60 days and last 28 days)

cebm.net/cov…hy/


Why public health England did far more deaths than the ons

cebm.net/cov…he/


The only meaningful stats now are hospital admissions and people in icu

1100 in hospital currently so less than 1 person per hospital

57 people in icu in england


41640895-zIB5D.jpg



Three times as many people died from flu / pneumonia in the week 21st-28th July as Covid19 (567 vs 193) according to the latest ons report

41640895-HPhWg.jpg
Edited by: "chocci" 11th Aug
chocci11/08/2020 21:05

Current new cases are unchanged in the last month as a ratio of tests. …Current new cases are unchanged in the last month as a ratio of tests. Wait until they achieve 500, 000 tests per day. Our figures will look awful. Deaths are going to be reported over 3 separate daily figures which is ridiculous (deaths from people who tested positive ever, last 60 days and last 28 days) The only meaningful stats now are hospital admissions and people in icu1100 in hospital currently so less than 1 person per hospital 57 people in icu in englandThree times as many people died from flu / pneumonia in the week 21st-28th July as Covid19 (567 vs 193) according to the latest ons report[Image]



If you can & able do that same graph from January to today x That would be an interesting view.
Willy_Wonka11/08/2020 21:12

If you can & able do that same graph from January to today x That would be …If you can & able do that same graph from January to today x That would be an interesting view.


Just added the hospital admissions chart from March above
"England will join the rest of the UK and disregard a COVID-19 diagnosis if the death occurs 28 days after the test."

Sky News

A review of how deaths from coronavirus are counted in England has reduced the UK death toll by more than 5,000, to 41,329, the government has announced.

BBC News
Edited by: "Frankie77" 12th Aug
Frankie7712/08/2020 18:49

"England will join the rest of the UK and disregard a COVID-19 diagnosis …"England will join the rest of the UK and disregard a COVID-19 diagnosis if the death occurs 28 days after the test."Sky NewsA review of how deaths from coronavirus are counted in England has reduced the UK death toll by more than 5,000, to 41,329, the government has announced.BBC News


While the existing count was definitely flawed that is too simplistic and will likely under represent the numbers now since it is entirely possible the patient may die after the 28 days from some damage the Covid did to that persons body e.g. caused a premature organ failure etc, which now would be ignored. Though it makes us look bad vs the rest of the world, though 41k deaths doesn't exactly look great anyway, I actually prefer a more inclusive model as this new one will undoubtedly let a lot of deaths caused by the after effects slip through the cracks...
Edited by: "ST3123" 12th Aug
ST312312/08/2020 19:34

While the existing count was definitely flawed that is too simplistic and …While the existing count was definitely flawed that is too simplistic and will likely under represent the numbers now since it is entirely possible the patient may die after the 28 days from some damage the Covid did to that persons body e.g. caused a premature organ failure etc, which now would be ignored. Though it makes us look bad vs the rest of the world, though 41k deaths doesn't exactly look great anyway, I actually prefer a more inclusive model as this new one will undoubtedly let a lot of deaths caused by the after effects slip through the cracks...


Conversely, the previous method meant that all 310,000 people who have tested positive would eventually be a covid death which was ludicrous.

Further, most of the deaths are people who died WITH Covid19 but were seriously ill so even now, many are counted as Covid19 deaths despite the fact they probably died due to cancer, heart disease etc.

Thankfully, the hospital admissions are now very low and there is little sign of any second wave across Europe. Shamefully, we have ended up with the second highest death rate in Europe, the worst recession of any major economy in the world and the highest mitigation expenditure per capita.

The big worry is the huge excess deaths that will be coming as a direct result of the nhs shutdown (40,000 missed cancer victims for starters). The nhs need to get back up and running now that there's an average of 1 covid case per hospital and only 57 people in icu in England. Deaths from the massive forthcoming levels of poverty are going to be catastrophic.

On the plus side, flu / pneumonia deaths are well down for the week ending 31st July (928 deaths vs 1365 average)
Edited by: "chocci" 13th Aug
ST312312/08/2020 19:34

While the existing count was definitely flawed that is too simplistic and …While the existing count was definitely flawed that is too simplistic and will likely under represent the numbers now since it is entirely possible the patient may die after the 28 days from some damage the Covid did to that persons body e.g. caused a premature organ failure etc, which now would be ignored. Though it makes us look bad vs the rest of the world, though 41k deaths doesn't exactly look great anyway, I actually prefer a more inclusive model as this new one will undoubtedly let a lot of deaths caused by the after effects slip through the cracks...


Although I understand your point, I think the emphasis is on the actual cause of death to give a more accurate picture. Especially when we are trying to keep track of a 'pandemic' and imposing restrictions to the general public based on these figures. Take a patient in your example for instance, they would be re-admitted to hospital again with complications. They will then be tested again throughout various examinations. Would this highlight Covid being still active in their system and recognised as an active cause? Therefore re-igniting the statistic status? Just a thought. It's basically to cease the situations that have been occurring as discussed by many in this thread as false numbers. Where the initial positive test is used after 28 days to diagnose when it is not conclusive.
chocci13/08/2020 08:06

Conversely, the previous method meant that all 310,000 people who have …Conversely, the previous method meant that all 310,000 people who have tested positive would eventually be a covid death which was ludicrous.Further, most of the deaths are people who died WITH Covid19 but were seriously ill so even now, many are counted as Covid19 deaths despite the fact they probably died due to cancer, heart disease etc.Thankfully, the hospital admissions are now very low and there is little sign of any second wave across Europe. Shamefully, we have ended up with the second highest death rate in Europe, the worst recession of any major economy in the world and the highest mitigation expenditure per capita.The big worry is the huge excess deaths that will be coming as a direct result of the nhs shutdown (40,000 missed cancer victims for starters). The nhs need to get back up and running now that there's an average of 1 covid case per hospital and only 57 people in icu in England. Deaths from the massive forthcoming levels of poverty are going to be catastrophic. On the plus side, flu / pneumonia deaths are well down for the week ending 31st July (928 deaths vs 1365 average)


Yeah it was reported that 16,000 people may have died as direct result of lockdown. I was highlighting this back in March and shot down many times because of it. There is the argument of the unknown and we really did not know the overall consequence of the initial herd immunity strategy at the time. However, this excess death fact was always ignored at the time.

"Another 81,500 lives could be lost over the next half century because of a combination of the recession caused by the lockdown and increased waiting times for hospital care, according to the figures."


Source.
Edited by: "Frankie77" 13th Aug
"Coronavirus: Health Secretary to replace Public Health England with specialist pandemic unit, says report"

It's encouraging to see actions are being taken over this. This has surprised me a bit.

Source.
Edited by: "Frankie77" 16th Aug
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