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    'Hard Brexit' will lower incomes all round

    According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

    In a note to clients, the US investment bank highlighted the economic benefits of the customs union and single market, as well as the costs of leaving.

    Free trade via the customs union with the EU "has been a key driver of rising average living standards in recent decades (though of course there is much debate about the distribution of income)," analysts led by global economist Ethan S. Harris said in the note. "So cutting trade with the EU would be economically negative in our view."

    Meanwhile, the single market "helps economies of scale," the analysts said. "The UK attracts foreign direct investment from abroad in part because of its membership, which often boosts productivity by bringing in external expertise."

    "So exiting both the customs union and the single market would therefore be economically costly: it would introduce frictions to UK/EU trade that do not currently exist, which means reduced trade volumes between the UK and EU and therefore lower incomes all round."

    113 Comments

    Original Poster

    uk.businessinsider.com/ban…R=T

    Now obviously they're experts and experts are derided by some in society but this is not a unique or surprising forecast in the slightest. It's just a warning of what's to come.

    Truth is that the EU is not the biggest threat to wages and jobs. Globalisation has seen jobs sent overseas for decades now and in time automation will simply eliminate more jobs.

    So if you're unskilled or have few transferable skills, the next decade or so is going to make it hard for you to provide for your family. If you fall under this category and you voted for Brexit, then you've probably contributed to your kids having a lower quality of life.

    On the plus side... X)

    on the plus side.....
    do educate us

    and in other news...............

    I'm sure people knew what they were voting for - I'm sure they looked at the leaflets and looked at the economic repercussions of leaving the EU, as it would be not only very silly not to, but would be failing the country as a whole - having considered all the issues of staffing the NHS/retail/the food industry and even fruit picking, and particularly the care sector they made their choice - 10 years of economic uncertainty. Good luck everybody - there's a chance we're going to need it.

    BOAML have never been wrong before, why did ML merge with BOA again?

    shadey12

    on the plus side.....do educate us




    We've got that £350,000,000 a week for the NHS sorted.


    /s

    Original Poster

    caroline777upnorth

    I'm sure people knew what they were voting for - I'm sure they looked at … I'm sure people knew what they were voting for - I'm sure they looked at the leaflets and looked at the economic repercussions of leaving the EU, as it would be not only very silly not to, but would be failing the country as a whole - having considered all the issues of staffing the NHS/retail/the food industry and even fruit picking, and particularly the care sector they made their choice - 10 years of economic uncertainty. Good luck everybody - there's a chance we're going to need it.



    What I'd recommend is investing in American healthcare companies.

    The NHS is going to see massive funding issues because as wages fall, so will the tax take (income tax, corporation tax and VAT). In the meantime we'll negotiate a trade deal with the USA and they'll push hard for greater access for private medical companies.

    So you'll see the NHS get worse and worse because of a lack of money, and the case for private companies to take it over will grow and grow.

    The irony of Brexit ultimately leading to the destruction of the NHS as we know it really is rather amazing....so long as you haven't got dependents who might rely on it.

    As for social care....not a chance of that surviving in it's current form.

    shadey12

    on the plus side.....do educate us






    https://media.giphy.com/media/EOpZ7XsVfTN2E/giphy.gif


    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/bank-of-america-may-leaving-single-market-immigration-control-2017-1?r=US&IR=TNow obviously they're experts and experts are derided by some in society but this is not a unique or surprising forecast in the slightest. It's just a warning of what's to come.Truth is that the EU is not the biggest threat to wages and jobs. Globalisation has seen jobs sent overseas for decades now and in time automation will simply eliminate more jobs. So if you're unskilled or have few transferable skills, the next decade or so is going to make it hard for you to provide for your family. If you fall under this category and you voted for Brexit, then you've probably contributed to your kids having a lower quality of life. On the plus side... X)



    Apparently there's been a financial crisis since 2008, but I've only seen my income rise year on year, so I will take all this with a pinch of salt. Admittedly I won't take anything for granted, but I don't see why there will be any less opportunity in the coming years than there has in the past years.

    In my opinion, there's no such thing as lower incomes all round, as some lose out others will benefit.

    Original Poster

    Of course there are plus sides to a hard Brexit.

    If you have transferable skills you'll continue to do well. If you export products then the low Pound makes your goods more attractive, whilst I'd be certain that in the next decade you'll be able to cut wages and conditions for your staff. That's the only way we'll compete in manufacturing (unless you think the government is going to invest in education and skills that will see us compete with countries like Germany - they won't).

    There is no great mystery to this. Brexit is bad for you if you're low-skilled, vulnerable, require social care or the NHS (or any public services to be honest), have a fixed-income or develop a serious or chronic illness over the next decade.

    The same lie that was told to Americans has been told to people who voted Leave. There is no silver bullet for the effects of Globalisation. People who were forgotten won't suddenly be remembered and greater automation will see even more low-skilled jobs disappear. Forever!

    So my advice - invest in property now, invest in private healthcare companies over the long-term, don't get sick, don't let your family get sick and if you have kids then they need to learn skills in either science or engineering to have the best chance in the future.

    If your kids leave school with mediocre grades and no skills, they likely don't have a future.

    Yawn, It's like you want to depress everyone on a Monday. I think those "Experts" are probably paid too much ;). I very much doubt you could predict much until it's happened which it hasn't yet.

    Original Poster

    paulsalmon77

    Apparently there's been a financial crisis since 2008, but I've only seen … Apparently there's been a financial crisis since 2008, but I've only seen my income rise year on year, so I will take all this with a pinch of salt. Admittedly I won't take anything for granted, but I don't see why there will be any less opportunity in the coming years than there has in the past years. In my opinion, there's no such thing as lower incomes all round, as some lose out others will benefit.



    A lot of people have seen their wages rise year on year and I'd imagine that you'd have some valuable skills. The majority of people haven't seen wage rises though.

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    Of course there are plus sides to a hard Brexit.If you have transferable … Of course there are plus sides to a hard Brexit.If you have transferable skills you'll continue to do well. If you export products then the low Pound makes your goods more attractive, whilst I'd be certain that in the next decade you'll be able to cut wages and conditions for your staff. That's the only way we'll compete in manufacturing (unless you think the government is going to invest in education and skills that will see us compete with countries like Germany - they won't).There is no great mystery to this. Brexit is bad for you if you're low-skilled, vulnerable, require social care or the NHS (or any public services to be honest), have a fixed-income or develop a serious or chronic illness over the next decade.The same lie that was told to Americans has been told to people who voted Leave. There is no silver bullet for the effects of Globalisation. People who were forgotten won't suddenly be remembered and greater automation will see even more low-skilled jobs disappear. Forever!So my advice - invest in property now, invest in private healthcare companies over the long-term, don't get sick, don't let your family get sick and if you have kids then they need to learn skills in either science or engineering to have the best chance in the future.If your kids leave school with mediocre grades and no skills, they likely don't have a future.



    ​paying attention and writing it all down,
    don't tell everyone, we don't want all the others in on this valuable info.

    Original Poster

    shauneco

    Yawn, It's like you want to depress everyone on a Monday. I think those … Yawn, It's like you want to depress everyone on a Monday. I think those "Experts" are probably paid too much ;). I very much doubt you could predict much until it's happened which it hasn't yet.



    If you wait until something has happened, it's not a prediction Shaune. X)

    If I remember rightly, you voted Brexit and you've said a few times that you work in an industry that is not only extremely vulnerable to consumer confidence but is also one of the areas that will see greater competition from automation. Hence your repeated claims that you'll crash into self-driving cars to cause accidents in a vain attempt to protect your livelihood.

    I've tried explaining this to you before but you seem not to want to acknowledge 'reality'.

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    If you wait until something has happened, it's not a prediction Shaune. … If you wait until something has happened, it's not a prediction Shaune. X)If I remember rightly, you voted Brexit and you've said a few times that you work in an industry that is not only extremely vulnerable to consumer confidence but is also one of the areas that will see greater competition from automation. Hence your repeated claims that you'll crash into self-driving cars to cause accidents in a vain attempt to protect your livelihood.I've tried explaining this to you before but you seem not to want to acknowledge 'reality'.


    No, They will crash into me, Stop twisting it, Just like you're twisting Brexit to suit your own agenda. Brexit twister is what you shall be renown as ;).

    Original Poster

    shauneco

    No, They will crash into me, Stop twisting it, Just like you're twisting … No, They will crash into me, Stop twisting it, Just like you're twisting Brexit to suit your own agenda. Brexit twister is what you shall be renown as ;).



    You realise they are covered in cameras which will record every incident. You can't outsmart them Shaune, just like you can't out-drive them. X)

    I'm not twisting Brexit either. If you think I'm wrong then feel free to disagree but here's the thing Shaune, and listen carefully.

    You voted for Brexit and in six months you've failed to come up with a single way in which it will benefit you or your family. I voted to remain and not only have I benefitted financially (as have my family) but I can see how I can benefit in the future.

    What does that make you Shaune? You don't seem to be winning from the situation. X)

    And this is news how?

    Edward, your getting boring now, brexit is going to happen whether you like it or not.

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    You realise they are covered in cameras which will record every incident. … You realise they are covered in cameras which will record every incident. You can't outsmart them Shaune, just like you can't out-drive them. X)I'm not twisting Brexit either. If you think I'm wrong then feel free to disagree but here's the thing Shaune, and listen carefully.You voted for Brexit and in six months you've failed to come up with a single way in which it will benefit you or your family. I voted to remain and not only have I benefitted financially (as have my family) but I can see how I can benefit in the future.What does that make you Shaune? You don't seem to be winning from the situation. X)



    The thing that confuses me most is the mixture of doom mongering with the happy/laughing smiley.

    I don't know what to make of it, like an evil super villan that proclaims exactly what they are going to do but they spent too long saying it and so it never materialises in the end..

    Not trying to be rude, just an observation on your outlook which always contains miserable subject matter but you (seem to) enjoy it a lot.
    Edited by: "delusion" 23rd Jan

    glad my kids past that age where education will mean so much in the future.
    if they were I would spend all my free time trying to give them a head start.

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    You realise they are covered in cameras which will record every incident. … You realise they are covered in cameras which will record every incident. You can't outsmart them Shaune, just like you can't out-drive them. X)I'm not twisting Brexit either. If you think I'm wrong then feel free to disagree but here's the thing Shaune, and listen carefully.You voted for Brexit and in six months you've failed to come up with a single way in which it will benefit you or your family. I voted to remain and not only have I benefitted financially (as have my family) but I can see how I can benefit in the future.What does that make you Shaune? You don't seem to be winning from the situation. X)


    You do realise I wasn't serious when it comes to causing accidents i,e slamming brakes on etc.. If that situation happened and it banged into me then obviously it'd be there fault anyway, Not mine.

    So you've benefited from it but moan repulsively about it?, Why is that?.

    Surely you must be delighted? No?.

    I can understand why the financial market might be negative about Brexit, They don't really like change but once things settle down the markets will settle down.

    It's going to be a long bumpy road but it will be worth it.

    I genuinely can't wait to give the dictatorship the middle finger.

    Original Poster

    shauneco

    You do realise I wasn't serious when it comes to causing accidents i,e … You do realise I wasn't serious when it comes to causing accidents i,e slamming brakes on etc.. If that situation happened and it banged into me then obviously it'd be there fault anyway, Not mine.So you've benefited from it but moan repulsively about it?, Why is that?. Surely you must be delighted? No?.I can understand why the financial market might be negative about Brexit, They don't really like change but once things settle down the markets will settle down. It's going to be a long bumpy road but it will be worth it.I genuinely can't wait to give the dictatorship the middle finger.



    Shaune, honest question time.

    Do you have a single transferrable skill?

    You talk about the financial markets but have no experience so I'm genuinely curious as to how you plan to provide for your family in the coming years. You dodge this issue enough.

    Also the reason I'm against Brexit is that it will negatively impact the most vulnerable in society. It will push up prices for basics, lead to the privatisation of the NHS and generally affect all public services.

    Edited by: "HotEnglishAndWelshDeals" 23rd Jan

    I'd try and get a bit more reputable and trusted source if I were you.

    justice.gov/opa…ing

    Original Poster

    Thanks for restoring this thread too Mods - you do a wonderful job in sometimes tricky circumstances.

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    Shaune, honest question time.Do you have a single transferrable skill? … Shaune, honest question time.Do you have a single transferrable skill? You talk about the financial markets but have no experience so I'm genuinely curious as to how you plan to provide for your family in the coming years. You dodge this issue enough.




    Talking of experience of financial markets, HEAWD. What is your specific area of expertise in the sector? I have a few relevant questions if it is within your sphere.

    Original Poster

    rodders443

    I'd try and get a bit more reputable and trusted source if I were … I'd try and get a bit more reputable and trusted source if I were you.https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/bank-america-pay-1665-billion-historic-justice-department-settlement-financial-fraud-leading



    I don't think there's a single source who would be 100% clean and perfect.

    I daresay some of the things brought up in this thread hit too close to home for many so they don't want to believe they're true.

    Unfortunately Brexit, Trump and Globalisation all mean one thing.

    Low-skilled jobs are going to disappear overseas, become worse-paid or fail to exist altogether.

    If you don't have a skill then in the modern economy you're not going to earn a wage. Amazon are trialling a system that eliminates huge numbers of shop workers. Uber are trialling cars that drive themselves that will eliminate taxi drivers whilst others are trialling systems on the roads right now that eliminate haulage and delivery drivers.

    Nobody here seems to disagree with any of this, or they haven't thus far. This is the world not of the future, but of the next five years and if you aren't raising your children cognisant of that fact then you're setting them up for a life of poverty.

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    Shaune, honest question time.Do you have a single transferrable skill? … Shaune, honest question time.Do you have a single transferrable skill? You talk about the financial markets but have no experience so I'm genuinely curious as to how you plan to provide for your family in the coming years. You dodge this issue enough.Also the reason I'm against Brexit is that it will negatively impact the most vulnerable in society. It will push up prices for basics, lead to the privatisation of the NHS and generally affect all public services.


    Yes, I've got loads of skills, I'm great with cars, computers looking after people etc.. I'm pretty safe regardless.

    The NHS was becoming privatised long before Brexit was even thought about, Businesses all over the UK have been relocated abroad etc.. Most financed by the dictatorship.

    It's easy to blame Brexit for everything that has been happening for years though hey.


    "Theresa May and Donald Trump to hold talks on trade deal that cuts tariffs and allows workers to move between the US and UK"

    The Prime Minister will on Friday become the first foreign leader to hold talks with the new President in the White House following assurances by Mr Trump’s team that he wants to do a major free trade deal with Britain that can be announced in the weeks after Brexit.
    One option understood to be being discussed in Whitehall is to agree to cut – or even drop – tariffs on items Britain and America already export to one another.

    Odd isn't it that it looks almost certain we will have a trade deal with the USA plus allow workers to come here and work whilst having control of our borders and yet the EU is not capable of doing such a deal.


    telegraph.co.uk/new…fs/

    Experts do not have a good track record on BREXIT predictions !

    Original Poster

    shasnir

    "Theresa May and Donald Trump to hold talks on trade deal that cuts … "Theresa May and Donald Trump to hold talks on trade deal that cuts tariffs and allows workers to move between the US and UK"The Prime Minister will on Friday become the first foreign leader to hold talks with the new President in the White House following assurances by Mr Trump’s team that he wants to do a major free trade deal with Britain that can be announced in the weeks after Brexit.One option understood to be being discussed in Whitehall is to agree to cut – or even drop – tariffs on items Britain and America already export to one another.Odd isn't it that it looks almost certain we will have a trade deal with the USA plus allow workers to come here and work whilst having control of our borders and yet the EU is not capable of doing such a deal.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/22/theresa-may-donald-trump-hold-talks-trade-deal-cuts-tariffs/



    Great news if you're invested in American healthcare companies or American agricultural concerns because that's where they'll be looking for greater access. Plus obviously the financial access.

    Manufacturing might also see an upswing but here's the cold, hard facts. The USA has an America First policy, they have all the cards in this discussion and we have a weak leader in Theresa May who is desperate for a deal.

    Can't see any new news here. Also it's one opinion. Everyone has an opinion, some more informed than others. Lots of opinions are paid for and biased towards who is paying. Follow the money .

    Original Poster

    colin4man

    Can't see any new news here. Also it's one opinion. Everyone has an … Can't see any new news here. Also it's one opinion. Everyone has an opinion, some more informed than others. Lots of opinions are paid for and biased towards who is paying. Follow the money .



    Colin, you've spoken before of some interest in the economy so I'd be interested in your view on something.

    What do you predict for low-skilled jobs in this country over the next decade? Simple enough question.

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    Great news if you're invested in American healthcare companies or … Great news if you're invested in American healthcare companies or American agricultural concerns because that's where they'll be looking for greater access. Plus obviously the financial access.Manufacturing might also see an upswing but here's the cold, hard facts. The USA has an America First policy, they have all the cards in this discussion and we have a weak leader in Theresa May who is desperate for a deal.



    Don't want to have to break your left wing Liberal bubble but EVERY country should put their country first and if you read the article you will of seen -

    'The job creation plan in both countries would allow President Trump to stand by his “America first” pledge whilst still agreeing to a deal that benefits both America and the UK'.

    HEAWD, honest question time.

    Do you have a single transferrable skill?

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    'Great with cars, computers, looking after old people'. They sound less … 'Great with cars, computers, looking after old people'. They sound less like skills and more like hobbies. X)If you were that great, you'd already be working in these sectors wouldn't you? I'm not picking on you but you've been resolute about the benefits of Brexit yet the reality is that it will simply accelerate the existing effects of Globalisation and that's something you repeatedly blame for negatively impacting you and your family's life.I don't blame Brexit for everything. I think people (like you) have been left behind by globalisation. Jobs that you might have done in previous generations have been sent overseas and never replaced, whilst the jobs you currently do will disappear because of automation.But you've been told that the EU, the dictatorship and immigrants are to blame when they're not. There are people who you went to school with who worked hard, learnt skills, maybe went to uni and who have been gainfully employed and prosperous because of the global market that has exploded over the last decades.They don't bemoan these things you do because they CHOSE not to let them be at the mercy of them. That may sound callous but it's the truth.The world got tougher and lots of people have struggled. Brexit won't change that and in my opinion it will make things a whole lot tougher for more people. That's why I despise Brexit.


    You really shouldn't mock people, I'm a foster carer, Looking after children isn't an hobby it's real life and I get paid a decent wage doing it to be fair. I have experience in those other areas hence it being a skill. Looking after children you're forever learning new skills etc..

    It's ok having a opinion but that doesn't mean you're right, You should also try to respect democracy and stop thinking you're better than everyone else. I hope you're very different in real life because your online persona is really sad. Your head is so far up your behind it is unreal.

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    Colin, you've spoken before of some interest in the economy so I'd be … Colin, you've spoken before of some interest in the economy so I'd be interested in your view on something.What do you predict for low-skilled jobs in this country over the next decade? Simple enough question.



    ​Low skilled jobs have always been at risk, by there very nature, and are likely to continue to be impacted in this country by cheap labour from elsewhere, automation etc. forever.

    Other areas that I see compensating for this are in the semi skilled jobs in service sectors like personal care, domestic services, tuition, leisure etc.
    Edited by: "colin4man" 23rd Jan

    Original Poster

    123thisisme

    HEAWD, honest question time. Do you have a single transferrable skill?



    No, I have a number of transferable skills as does my partner. Do you?


    shasnir

    Don't want to have to break your left wing Liberal bubble but EVERY … Don't want to have to break your left wing Liberal bubble but EVERY country should put their country first and if you read the article you will of seen -'The job creation plan in both countries would allow President Trump to stand by his “America first” pledge whilst still agreeing to a deal that benefits both America and the UK'.



    Sorry Shasnir but if we're talking about bubbles have you ever actually gone out and got a job? Bought a house? What real-world experience do you even have?

    That plan does sound great but I think America will (and should) put their own interests first. They are a much bigger market and they will push for what benefits them best.

    The truth is that those with skills who have benefitted over the last few decades will continue to benefit under any deal, on the whole. Low-skilled workers in both countries are going to be in massive trouble not just because their jobs were shipped overseas but because increased automation and technological advances will see them unemployable.

    That's the reality of the future unfortunately.

    Original Poster

    colin4man

    ​Low skilled jobs have always been at risk, by there very nature, and are … ​Low skilled jobs have always been at risk, by there very nature, and are likely to continue to be impacted in this country by cheap labour elsewhere forever.



    Cheap labour isn't the biggest threat anymore and it hasn't been for about five years, so you're a bit out of date. I've referenced it many times but technological unemployment is what everyone is focussing on.

    It's rather strange it wasn't the first thing you mentioned.
    shauneco

    You really shouldn't mock people, I'm a foster carer, Looking after … You really shouldn't mock people, I'm a foster carer, Looking after children isn't an hobby it's real life and I get paid a decent wage doing it to be fair. I have experience in those other areas hence it being a skill. Looking after children you're forever learning new skills etc..It's ok having a opinion but that doesn't mean you're right, You should also try to respect democracy and stop thinking you're better than everyone else. I hope you're very different in real life because your online persona is really sad. Your head is so far up your behind it is unreal.



    I'm not mocking you Shaune - I'm being honest with you.

    People with no real skills are already at threat and the economic effects of Brexit will exacerbate that. This is not conjecture or idle predictions but the direction of travel for the economy (except if you're Colin apparently where outsourcing is still the buzzword).

    Vulnerable people in this country are going to have it extremely tough for a long-time and whilst it's easy to say 'well they already have', when prices of essentials go up as public services receive less funding then it's an unfortunate perfect storm.

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    Cheap labour isn't the biggest threat anymore and it hasn't been for … Cheap labour isn't the biggest threat anymore and it hasn't been for about five years, so you're a bit out of date. I've referenced it many times but technological unemployment is what everyone is focussing on.It's rather strange it wasn't the first thing you mentioned. I'm not mocking you Shaune - I'm being honest with you.People with no real skills are already at threat and the economic effects of Brexit will exacerbate that. This is not conjecture or idle predictions but the direction of travel for the economy (except if you're Colin apparently where outsourcing is still the buzzword).Vulnerable people in this country are going to have it extremely tough for a long-time and whilst it's easy to say 'well they already have', when prices of essentials go up as public services receive less funding then it's an unfortunate perfect storm.


    If "Great with cars, computers, looking after old people'. They sound less like skills and more like hobbies" isn't mocking then I don't really know what is, You constantly bait people, I'm not sure if the only reason you create or respond on threads like this is so you can big your own ego up or something, I'm not the only member who sees a pattern. It's as if you believe you're a superior race.



    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    No, I have a number of transferable skills as does my partner. Do you?.


    Yes, I have a number of transferable skills as does my partner.
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