Lego have confirmed Black Friday 21st Nov for VIP Early Access - see the Lego Catalogue at lego.com/cdn…pdf
it is expected that the 40410: Charles Dickens Tribute will be the free promo set for the initial offer. However they also have an 40416 Ice Skating Set that should be available early December as they always do two promos. In addition Double VIP points often occurs around Black Friday with reduced sets thou COVID may limit that.
In addition with the stores closed, when they re-open in the UK they may do some double ups on the Promo's as my own store was giving away multiple promos on re-opening when you purchased sets. Stock is also limited online on the newer Christmas Items such as the Wreath which is sold out online already, but i have seen/purchased in store just before lockdown 2.0