Local election results will give clue to national poll

110 replies
Found 5th May
Will be interesting to see whether Conservatives and SNP will push Labour and UKIP out of seats.

update:

The Conservatives have made gains while almost all the other parties have lost ground.
Labour has lost more than 200 council seats, UKIP has suffered heavy losses and the Lib Dems have not make the gains they had hoped for.
The Conservatives appear to have been the main beneficiaries of a decline in support for UKIP.
The party is now in charge of Warwickshire, Lincolnshire, Gloucestershire, the Isle of Wight and Monmouthshire, all of which were previously under no overall control.

Meanwhile, it has been a less successful night for Labour.
The party has lost control of Glasgow as well as Bridgend and Blaenau Gwent. It described its performance as "disappointing" five weeks before the general election.

The Lib Dems have had a mixed performance, with some seats won and others lost.
Lib Dem former business secretary Vince Cable said the night had been "neutral" for his party.
"We're in a relatively encouraging position, though there hasn't been a spectacular breakthrough," he said.

UKIP suffered a bad night - losing all but one of its contested seats that have been declared so far.
The party lost all of its seats in Lincolnshire, Warwickshire, Hampshire, Essex and the Isle of Wight.

But it has been a good night for those unaffiliated to any political party, with more independents gaining seats.

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A sad day, probably indicating an even sadder day in June. It seems the voters are falling for the "strong leadership" rhetoric and ignoring the fact that our services are about to collapse. I feel helpless and can only hope that an application to Canada is successful (if there is a Tory landslide). I don't want to live in a country full of people who choose to line the pockets of the rich over investing in services that are there to benefit everyone
Edited by: "Mermoo" 5th May

Mermoo

A sad day, probably indicating an even sadder day in June. It seems the … A sad day, probably indicating an even sadder day in June. It seems the voters are falling for the "strong leadership" rhetoric and ignoring the fact that our services are about to collapse. I feel helpless and can only hope that an application to Canada is successful (if there is a Tory landslide). I don't want to live in a country full of people who choose to line the pockets of the rich over investing in services that are there to benefit everyone



Bye! Be sure keep us up-to-date when you emigrate to Canada.
110 Comments

Original Poster

bbc.co.uk/new…138

4,851 seats being contested.

Results so far across England and Wales
Posted at
3:56
Across the nine English and Welsh counties that have fully declared results, the Tories have control of six authorities - including three gains - and 300 seats, a net gain of 70.

Labour have won 103 seats, a net loss of 36, the Lib Dems have won 75, a net loss of 14 and UKIP has failed to win any seats, a net loss of 20.


Elections are taking place in all 32 Scottish Councils. Results are expected from 1130 on Friday.

Edited by: "davewave" 5th May

Labour and LibDems will put a spin on the results, make out they were winners and that they have the vote of the majority. It will give Tim Farron a chance to film yet another annoying Party Political Broadcast.

Not much of a clue dave the last two times we had locals during a GE campaign
http://i.imgur.com/EG1ms6K.jpg

Original Poster

thewongwing101

Not much of a clue dave the last two times we had locals during a GE … Not much of a clue dave the last two times we had locals during a GE campaign


you cannot see a correlation there? Even though its not 1:1 ... Con Local win = Con GE win

Looks like the candidate I voted for got the West of England Mayoral election. I'm happy with that.

davewave

you cannot see a correlation there? Even though its not 1:1 ... Con Local … you cannot see a correlation there? Even though its not 1:1 ... Con Local win = Con GE win


The correlation is people don't vote the same way in locals as they do in a GE election

Original Poster

thewongwing101

The correlation is people don't vote the same way in locals as they do in … The correlation is people don't vote the same way in locals as they do in a GE election


More people vote in General Elections but based on your chart the Locals are at least representative in terms of places for Con and Lab.

davewave

More people vote in General Elections but based on your chart the Locals … More people vote in General Elections but based on your chart the Locals are at least representative in terms of places for Con and Lab.


They are just different sorts of elections dave
Whether Mrs Miggins needs more books for the library
or the military need their **** extension renewed

just completely different things

Original Poster

thewongwing101

They are just different sorts of elections daveWhether Mrs Miggins needs … They are just different sorts of elections daveWhether Mrs Miggins needs more books for the libraryor the military need their **** extension renewed just completely different things


your chart shows a direct correlation between them - doesnt support your view tbh. Historically both Local and GE = ConWin, Labrunner up

A sad day, probably indicating an even sadder day in June. It seems the voters are falling for the "strong leadership" rhetoric and ignoring the fact that our services are about to collapse. I feel helpless and can only hope that an application to Canada is successful (if there is a Tory landslide). I don't want to live in a country full of people who choose to line the pockets of the rich over investing in services that are there to benefit everyone
Edited by: "Mermoo" 5th May

It will take a general election to get rid of Corbyn, he should have listened to his MP's and stood aside.

I had a choice of three candidates, UKIP - he lives in a town 7 miles away.
An Independent ( previously a LibDem ) - They support a pedophile hence them changing parties to try and fool people and Labour - A genuine nice lady.

So in Local I had no other choice but to vote Labour but won't be in the GE.

I voted for my local resident associations. There's little room for national agendas in local government, unless you want them to sit back and happily accept more cuts!

Of course I am very happy for cuts to happen in other areas, just not NIMBY. You understand of course
Edited by: "groenleader" 5th May

I never vote in the Council elections. Europeans are allowed to vote for this particular election and that puts me off.

Original Poster

Mermoo

A sad day, probably indicating an even sadder day in June. It seems the … A sad day, probably indicating an even sadder day in June. It seems the voters are falling for the "strong leadership" rhetoric and ignoring the fact that our services are about to collapse. I feel helpless and can only hope that an application to Canada is successful (if there is a Tory landslide). I don't want to live in a country full of people who choose to line the pockets of the rich over investing in services that are there to benefit everyone



​not falling for weak leadership of Labour.

Mermoo

A sad day, probably indicating an even sadder day in June. It seems the … A sad day, probably indicating an even sadder day in June. It seems the voters are falling for the "strong leadership" rhetoric and ignoring the fact that our services are about to collapse. I feel helpless and can only hope that an application to Canada is successful (if there is a Tory landslide). I don't want to live in a country full of people who choose to line the pockets of the rich over investing in services that are there to benefit everyone



Bye! Be sure keep us up-to-date when you emigrate to Canada.

davewave

Local election results will give clue to national poll\x09\x09\x09\x09\x09




Thanks, Dave' - very thought-provoking. Many will never have conceived of a possible link between these two events.

Original Poster

Saturn

Thanks, Dave' - very thought-provoking. Many will never have conceived of … Thanks, Dave' - very thought-provoking. Many will never have conceived of a possible link between these two events.


Well to be fair, some here firmly disagree with it (the basis for discussion).

Historically Labour tend to do better at the Council Seat Elections than they do in a General Election.

For Labour, the signs are ominous.

davewave

Well to be fair, some here firmly disagree with it (the basis for … Well to be fair, some here firmly disagree with it (the basis for discussion).




No, I really think you have uncovered something a bit special here, Dave'.

Original Poster

Saturn

No, I really think you have uncovered something a bit special here, Dave'.


Your sarcasm isn't adding much to the discussion, as such if you aren't keen on contributing to the post then kindly leave.

davewave

Your sarcasm isn't adding much to the discussion, as such if you aren't … Your sarcasm isn't adding much to the discussion, as such if you aren't keen on contributing to the post then kindly leave.




I thought I had been rather supportive, Dave'. Oh well, no worries, I will do as you ask and let others comment on this revelation.

I know that the conservatives are hated right now but they are still winning. I personally think even in GE they will easily take majority all because there's no strong opposition. People would like to vote labour but the leadership in Labour is rather shaken. people don't want to choose "not a strong leader" at least conservatives to some extent have succeeded in getting that rhetoric right since it's working g now. To be honest I personally think that conservatives don't deserve to win, but I look at other options there aren't any actually.

John McDonnell on Jeremy Corbyn, "I think that the more people that see of him, the more opportunity they get to think, "Well, this is the leader I want"".

Eh, no!
Edited by: "Predikuesi" 5th May

Delighted to see tim farrons lib dems bite the dust along with ukip.

UKIP are largely irrelevant now. Lib Dems sold their soul and are paying the price locally for the foreseeable future. Labour will plod onto the GE, lose, new leader for Labour (Hippys will start up - momentum? with Corbyn) This will weaken Labours support for the next election in 5yrs time (or until May wants more MP's like now). Tories will use the easy win to tread on the poor once more, probably using Brexit as the next reason for removing workers rights etc.
No idea about SNP, hopefully the broken record will lose support and wipe the smile of its face.

Predikuesi

John McDonnell on Jeremy Corbyn, "I think that the more people that see … John McDonnell on Jeremy Corbyn, "I think that the more people that see of him, the more opportunity they get to think, "Well, this is the leader I want"".Eh, no!



On Sky earlier didn't he say something along the lines of "It wasn't a complete disaster - we've got Doncaster" or something like that? I laughed.

Do you really need a clue as to what's going to happen in the general election? It's clear the Tories are going to have landslide victory. There really is no viable alternative unless you live in Scotland and even then I think people are probably fed up the the SNPs relentless whinging about wanting more autonomy whilst not actually achieving anything.
If you're looking for a 'clue' as to what might happen, look to the elections 2 years ago and add on another 100 or so to the Tory majority to make up for all the UKIP and labour voters.

UKIP are finished. Not even their BNPlite policies can save them from electoral oblivion.

splatsplatsplat

It will take a general election to get rid of Corbyn, he should have … It will take a general election to get rid of Corbyn, he should have listened to his MP's and stood aside.



It might take a general election to oust Corbin, but reckon it may well not be this one. Even if the Labour vote collapses to an all time low, I can imagine him sitting there banging on about how he should still be leader.

Original Poster

​UKIP and BNP are very different. It's a lazy equivalence.

Politics has certainly gotten interesting since Brexit and Trump, looks like total carnage for the labour party in the local elections.
All those tories who spent £3 to vote for Comrade Corby must be laughing their socks off, mission almost accomplished.

davewave

your chart shows a direct correlation between them - doesnt support your … your chart shows a direct correlation between them - doesnt support your view tbh. Historically both Local and GE = ConWin, Labrunner up


So Dave 11690 people voted Tory here yesterday
11035 Voted Lib Dem and under 3000 'others'
Let us say for arguments sake a 10 % 'swing' in national 'voter intention' from Con to Lib Dem in the next five weeks
who do you think will win here on the 8th of June ?

Oh and bear in mind we vote Remain here and we paid for the A-hole Tories MP's mini castle


Edited by: "Wongy110" 5th May

Original Poster

thewongwing101

So Dave 11690 people voted Tory here yesterday11035 Voted Lib Dem and … So Dave 11690 people voted Tory here yesterday11035 Voted Lib Dem and under 3000 'others'Let us say for arguments sake a 10 % 'swing' in national 'voter intention' from Con to Lib Dem in the next five weekswho do you think will win here on the 8th of June ?Oh and bear in mind we vote Remain here and we paid for the A-hole Tories MP's mini castle


UKIP and Green coalition - what's your beef?

davewave

UKIP and Green coalition - what's your beef?


Not got got any beef
plenty of chicken and lamb mind

davewave

you cannot see a correlation there? Even though its not 1:1 ... Con Local … you cannot see a correlation there? Even though its not 1:1 ... Con Local win = Con GE win



And Labour took a pasting in the general election in those years highlighted by that graphic.
Edited by: "Fred.Smith" 5th May

I don't know if you are being stubborn,stupid or just tricky dave
and I don't care (_;)
The share of the vote in the locals if repeated in June would mean we are back where we started
(but that is just stupid)
http://i.imgur.com/KxnP6bR.png

thewongwing101

I don't know if you are being stubborn,stupid or just tricky dave and I … I don't know if you are being stubborn,stupid or just tricky dave and I don't care (_;)The share of the vote in the locals if repeated in June would mean we are back where we started(but that is just stupid)


And with 30 odd Tory MPs still facing prosecution for election fraud it might seem that Mrs May has wasted an awful lot of money holding an unnecessary election.

RonChew

And with 30 odd Tory MPs still facing prosecution for election fraud it … And with 30 odd Tory MPs still facing prosecution for election fraud it might seem that Mrs May has wasted an awful lot of money holding an unnecessary election.


Sorry but just posted that to prove how wrong the OP's
correlation is
Highly unlikely the Lib Dems will get 18%
people vote differently in local elections

thewongwing101

The correlation is people don't vote the same way in locals as they do in … The correlation is people don't vote the same way in locals as they do in a GE election



Another correlation - 1983 general election Labour leader far-left Tony Ben. 1987 general election Labour leader far-left Neil Kinnock. 2015 general election Labour leader far-left unions choice Ed Miliband.
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