Mathematician please

44
Posted 11th Jan
Over the years I've had a few double yolked eggs but they are few and far between. I live in a country village and buy my eggs from a place in the village with an honesty box. I've just finished a box of six very large eggs, all six double yolkers. I've looked it up and the chance of getting one is about 1 in a thousand, what would be the chance of getting 6 in the same box.
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Do you live near Springfield nuclear power plant?
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How many boxes are there in the world? That info is needed.
Slim
Still one in Thousand ,5 other people will not get one.
Do you live near Springfield nuclear power plant?
Had a few double yolkers from a similar batch before so I doubt it's really 1 in a thousand. I would guess certain hens would be more likely to produce double yolkers via genetics etc.. so you vastly reduce your odds, Still obviously very unlikely.
Edited by: ".MUFC." 11th Jan
Those large producer could identify double yorked from ten of thousands of eggs they've got everyday and put in one box.

If it is a mathematical question, it is 1/(1000^6) for a box of 6
Edited by: "Cisco060606" 11th Jan
"This Guy Cracked a Dozen Double-Yolk Eggs in a Row"
[ myrecipes.com/ext…row ]

Cisco06060611/01/2020 11:05

Those large producer could identify double yorkers from ten of thousands …Those large producer could identify double yorkers from ten of thousands of eggs they've got everyday and put in one box.If it is a mathematical question, it is 1/(1000^6) for a box of 6


@Cisco060606
Has it right. So it would be 0.00000000000000001%

BUT just because it is in general 1/1000 chance, doesnt mean the chances for your specific farm arent higher. Typcially double yolkers are done by younger chicks and usually the eggs are larger, so often if you buy L/XL eggs, your chances for a double Yolked go up by choosing larger eggs.
So your farm probably has hens in the "right" age.
Cisco06060611/01/2020 11:05

....If it is a mathematical question, it is 1/(1000^6) for a box of 6


I suppose you could look at this way too.

1 in 1000 chance (0.001%). 6 eggs in a box so 6 in 1000 (0.006%) chance of finding one. After you’ve cracked the first egg you have five eggs left so 5 in 1000 (0.005%) then 4 in 1000 & so on.

Chances of all 6 being double yokes would then be (0.006 x 0.005 x 0.004 x 0.003 x 0.002 x 0.001) which equals 0.00000000000000000144%.
Edited by: "captainbeaky" 11th Jan
39648908-elzaX.jpg
captainbeaky11/01/2020 11:32

I suppose you could look at this way too.1 in 1000 chance (0.001%). 6 eggs …I suppose you could look at this way too.1 in 1000 chance (0.001%). 6 eggs in a box so 6 in 1000 (0.006%) chance of finding one. After you’ve cracked the first egg you have five eggs left so 5 in 1000 (0.005%) then 4 in 1000 & so on.Chances of all 6 being double yokes would then be (0.006 x 0.005 x 0.004 x 0.003 x 0.002 x 0.001) which equals 0.00000000000000000144%.


Not sure that calculation is correct.

Using your logic, the event of getting 2 heads from 2 coin flips gives a 0.5 chance or 50% which is incorrect as it is 1 in 4 chance or 25%.


Think the OP is a trick question, they state in the same box so 0% as it's now eggless.
Edited by: "mug51" 11th Jan
"...and buy my eggs from a place in the village with an honesty box..." so obvsly depends how many honesty boxes OP has available.
mug5111/01/2020 12:38

Not sure that calculation is correct. Using your logic, the event of …Not sure that calculation is correct. Using your logic, the event of getting 2 heads from 2 coin flips gives a 0.5 chance or 50% which is incorrect as it is 1 in 4 chance or 25%.Think the OP is a trick question, they state in the same box so 0% as it's now eggless.


It's not a trick question. I've lived in the village for getting on 3 years and never had a double yolk egg before, then I get a box with six of them in.
AndyRoyd11/01/2020 12:52

"...and buy my eggs from a place in the village with an honesty box..." so …"...and buy my eggs from a place in the village with an honesty box..." so obvsly depends how many honesty boxes OP has available.


There's one in the village and a few scattered around the area, but I always buy mine from the village one. £1.25 for 6 very large eggs.
bigbaz11/01/2020 13:01

There's one in the village and a few scattered around the area, but I …There's one in the village and a few scattered around the area, but I always buy mine from the village one. £1.25 for 6 very large eggs.


Is buying the honesty box cheaper than directly paying cash for the eggs / box of eggs?
AndyRoyd11/01/2020 13:08

Is buying the honesty box cheaper than directly paying cash for the eggs / …Is buying the honesty box cheaper than directly paying cash for the eggs / box of eggs?


£1.25 very large, £1 for large.
"Over the years I've had a few double yolked eggs but they are few and far between..."

bigbaz11/01/2020 12:58

I've lived in the village for getting on 3 years and never had a double …I've lived in the village for getting on 3 years and never had a double yolk egg before, then I get a box with six of them in.


Presumably the previous double-yolks you received were not while you were living in this same village, or I am very confused here.
fanpages11/01/2020 15:31

"Over the years I've had a few double yolked eggs but they are few and …"Over the years I've had a few double yolked eggs but they are few and far between..."Presumably the previous double-yolks you received were not while you were living in this same village, or I am very confused here.


The only double yolks I've had in the village were the box of six, no previous.
fanpages11/01/2020 15:31

"Over the years I've had a few double yolked eggs but they are few and …"Over the years I've had a few double yolked eggs but they are few and far between..."Presumably the previous double-yolks you received were not while you were living in this same village, or I am very confused here.



bigbaz11/01/2020 16:09

The only double yolks I've had in the village were the box of six, no …The only double yolks I've had in the village were the box of six, no previous.



Have you had double yolks before being in the village?
fanpages11/01/2020 16:14

Have you had double yolks before being in the village?


Yes but there's a long time between them.
fanpages11/01/2020 16:14

Have you had double yolks before being in the village?



bigbaz11/01/2020 16:54

Yes but there's a long time between them.



That's fine. I was just trying to find which of your various statements (from the opening comment/thread description & throughout the thread until here) was misleading.

Carry on.
fanpages11/01/2020 17:22

That's fine. I was just trying to find which of your various statements …That's fine. I was just trying to find which of your various statements (from the opening comment/thread description & throughout the thread until here) was misleading.Carry on.


I don't think I've wrote anything that's misleading, maybe you can explain.
bigbaz11/01/2020 17:47

I don't think I've wrote anything that's misleading, maybe you can explain.


In this comment (of mine), I quoted a statement from the thread description & a subsequent comment you made, making it sound like you had not had ("never") a double yolk before, followed by a contradiction. Hence, this is why I clarified whether you had one previously (when not living where you do now):

[ hotukdeals.com/com…312 ]
fanpages11/01/2020 18:02

In this comment (of mine), I quoted a statement from the thread …In this comment (of mine), I quoted a statement from the thread description & a subsequent comment you made, making it sound like you had not had ("never") a double yolk before, followed by a contradiction. Hence, this is why I clarified whether you had one previously (when not living where you do now):[ https://www.hotukdeals.com/comments/permalink/39650312 ]


Sorry if its a bit confusing. I've lived in the village 32 months and regularly bought eggs from the egg station where I got a box of six eggs all were double yolks, while living in the village always buying eggs from the same place I've never had never had a double yolker before. Previous to living in the village I've had double yolk eggs over the years but they have been few and far between.
No offence or sarcasm was intended in my previous posts.
Generally you calculate odds of something happening in a row by multiplying the odds togther together. E.g. The chances of getting 2 heads in a row is 1/2 * 1/2, which is 1/4. Or 2 dice rolls both being 6 is 1/36 (1/6 * 1/6).

So the chances of 6 1/1000 events (Although it sounds like that may not be the true odds for double yolker eggs) happening in a row is 1/ (1000 * 1000 * 1000 * 1000 * 1000 * 1000) or 1/1,000,000,000,000,000,000, which google reckons is 1 in a Quintillion, but I'm not sure about that.
Edited by: "UKBFG" 11th Jan
bigbaz11/01/2020 18:28

Sorry if its a bit confusing. I've lived in the village 32 months and …Sorry if its a bit confusing. I've lived in the village 32 months and regularly bought eggs from the egg station where I got a box of six eggs all were double yolks, while living in the village always buying eggs from the same place I've never had never had a double yolker before. Previous to living in the village I've had double yolk eggs over the years but they have been few and far between.No offence or sarcasm was intended in my previous posts.



"I've never had never had a double yolker before..."

Thanks. That's made it so much clearer.
UKBFG11/01/2020 18:42

Generally you calculate odds of something happening in a row by …Generally you calculate odds of something happening in a row by multiplying the odds togther together. E.g. The chances of getting 2 heads in a row is 1/2 * 1/2, which is 1/4. Or 2 dice rolls both being 6 is 1/36 (1/6 * 1/6). So the chances of 6 1/1000 events (Although it sounds like that may not be the true odds for double yolker eggs) happening in a row is 1/ (1000 * 1000 * 1000 * 1000 * 1000 * 1000) or 1/1,000,000,000,000,000,000, which google reckons is 1 in a Quintillion, but I'm not sure about that.



It depends if you are taking into account (& limiting the question to) a box of 6 (or 12, or whatever) eggs, & the chances of getting a double yolk in succession.

If, for example, in a box of 6, the first egg is a double yolk, then the chances of getting a double yolk (next, or within the others) reduce (as there are now only 5 eggs (remaining) in the box.

Now we have established that @bigbaz has had double yolks before (at least, I think that is what we have established), the number of eggs produced/sold by the retailer needs to be quantified or, if the question is about the entire quantity of eggs ever produced (within the UK, or in a wider catchment area) to date, what that quantity is, before any accurate calculations can be performed.
I disagree. if the odds of any egg being a double yokers are 1000 to 1, then the rest is irrlevant. The odds of each egg from the box are also 1000/1.
Are double yolkers really that rare? We live in a rural area with an egg hut at the local farm. We buy the jumbo eggs (plenty of availability) and I’d say we have had 5/6 as double yolkers per box over the summer and perhaps 1 or 2/6 over winter.
Double yolks?

@fanpages where's my double yolk thread?

Too slow mate, I found it myself

OP, I beat you with 7 out of the first 7 in a box of 10. I can't remember if the rest were double, it was 9 years ago
Edited by: "deeky" 11th Jan
Surely it would be a statistician you need not a mathematician
psychobitchfromhell11/01/2020 21:21

Surely it would be a statistician you need not a mathematician


Or/and a biologist ?
Edited by: "Wongy110" 11th Jan
UKBFG11/01/2020 18:42

Generally you calculate odds of something happening in a row by …Generally you calculate odds of something happening in a row by multiplying the odds togther together. E.g. The chances of getting 2 heads in a row is 1/2 * 1/2, which is 1/4. Or 2 dice rolls both being 6 is 1/36 (1/6 * 1/6). So the chances of 6 1/1000 events (Although it sounds like that may not be the true odds for double yolker eggs) happening in a row is 1/ (1000 * 1000 * 1000 * 1000 * 1000 * 1000) or 1/1,000,000,000,000,000,000, which google reckons is 1 in a Quintillion, but I'm not sure about that.



fanpages11/01/2020 19:21

It depends if you are taking into account (& limiting the question to) a …It depends if you are taking into account (& limiting the question to) a box of 6 (or 12, or whatever) eggs, & the chances of getting a double yolk in succession.If, for example, in a box of 6, the first egg is a double yolk, then the chances of getting a double yolk (next, or within the others) reduce (as there are now only 5 eggs (remaining) in the box.Now we have established that @bigbaz has had double yolks before (at least, I think that is what we have established), the number of eggs produced/sold by the retailer needs to be quantified or, if the question is about the entire quantity of eggs ever produced (within the UK, or in a wider catchment area) to date, what that quantity is, before any accurate calculations can be performed.



UKBFG11/01/2020 19:40

I disagree. if the odds of any egg being a double yokers are 1000 to 1, …I disagree. if the odds of any egg being a double yokers are 1000 to 1, then the rest is irrlevant. The odds of each egg from the box are also 1000/1.



I feel you really didn't really grasp what I was attempting to convey but never mind; it was probably my eggcessive use of brackets.
psychobitchfromhell11/01/2020 21:21

Surely it would be a statistician you need not a mathematician



A mathematical statistician, probably, but a mathematician in any respect.
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