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    Millions of jobs will disappear because of automation

    Mark Carney explicitly stated this on the day Amazon announced Amazon Go which completely changes the way people shop.

    Uber is looking at driverless taxis whilst driverless lorries are a reality already. Then there's the prospect of administrative job search disappearing whilst greater automation in production jobs will simply make jobs disappear.

    104 Comments

    Original Poster

    It's probably a bigger risk to society than terrorism, a greater threat to social cohesion than the fear of immigration and will likely be the greatest amount of upheaval to the social order than anything that has gone before.

    Thoughts? X)

    by the end of our lifetimes allot of stuff will be robotic / automated. The unskilled workforce will be phased out over time.

    Original Poster

    AStonedRaichu

    by the end of our lifetimes allot of stuff will be robotic / automated. … by the end of our lifetimes allot of stuff will be robotic / automated. The unskilled workforce will be phased out over time.



    I don't even think it will be that long (depending how old you are X) ).

    How we phase those jobs out is going to be the biggest challenge.

    You kept having kids and we don't know why! Where will they live or where will they work....?!
    Edited by: "groenleader" 6th Dec 2016

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    I don't even think it will be that long (depending how old you are X) … I don't even think it will be that long (depending how old you are X) ).How we phase those jobs out is going to be the biggest challenge.



    https://scifiinterfaces.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/walle-socialnetwork02.jpg

    Considering people were saying exactly the same thing in the 1950s when the potential of computers and industrial robotics first started to be realised, I'm not too worried.

    A.I. will be here far more quickly than people realise, maybe 10 years or so.

    "Millions of jobs will disappear because of automation"

    A bit late to mention this, after all, it has been happening for well over 100 years.

    A factory where I worked went from nearly 4,000 shop floor workers to barely 1,200 when electronic welders and industrial robots were introduced in the late 1970's/early 1980s.
    20 years later, and that factory was replaced by a newly designed one that produced twice the amount of goods, with a shop floor staff of less than 800 (that factory was in France, so the UK lost all of those jobs).

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    It's probably a bigger risk to society than terrorism, a greater threat … It's probably a bigger risk to society than terrorism, a greater threat to social cohesion than the fear of immigration and will likely be the greatest amount of upheaval to the social order than anything that has gone before.Thoughts? X)



    ​is it an aggregate risk or exclusive to the other risks eh?

    Old news, this happened to farming in the 1950's

    airfix

    Old news, this happened to farming in the 1950's


    A long time before that my friend.

    Original Poster

    spoo

    Considering people were saying exactly the same thing in the 1950s when … Considering people were saying exactly the same thing in the 1950s when the potential of computers and industrial robotics first started to be realised, I'm not too worried.



    Probably best not to view the next industrial revolution in the context of the 1950s.

    Automated driving has the potential to eliminate millions of jobs around the worlds on its own. Amazon Go's technology does away with the need for checkout staff. That's a huge proportion of low-skilled jobs right there.

    This is something the next generation will have to actually deal with.

    getmeone

    A long time before that my friend.



    I'm talking about the diesel engine and tractors, they became more common, post war production boom

    Yes I know all about jethro tull etc but big changes came after the war.

    Well we best close the door then, no more low skilled jobs for the immigrants. I guess we'll still have the Bankers though.

    Original Poster

    airfix

    Old news, this happened to farming in the 1950's



    How is it old news?

    Just because something similar happened in farming before (actually the biggest revolution in farming pre-dates yours by well over a century), doesn't make it old news.

    But your attitude is the type that will see millions of people around the world caught out by what isn't just some distant dream, but within the next decade or so.







    spoo

    Considering people were saying exactly the same thing in the 1950s when … Considering people were saying exactly the same thing in the 1950s when the potential of computers and industrial robotics first started to be realised, I'm not too worried.

    Gentle_Giant

    "Millions of jobs will disappear because of automation"A bit late to … "Millions of jobs will disappear because of automation"A bit late to mention this, after all, it has been happening for well over 100 years.A factory where I worked went from nearly 4,000 shop floor workers to barely 1,200 when electronic welders and industrial robots were introduced in the late 1970's/early 1980s.20 years later, and that factory was replaced by a newly designed one that produced twice the amount of goods, with a shop floor staff of less than 800 (that factory was in France, so the UK lost all of those jobs).

    airfix

    Old news, this happened to farming in the 1950's

    airfix

    Old news, this happened to farming in the 1950's

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    Thoughts? X)




    Can everyone stop spoiling HEAWD's fun. If you don't want to take pleasure in the prospect of millions of lower-skilled workers losing their jobs - please leave the thread.



    Original Poster

    shauneco

    Well we best close the door then, no more low skilled jobs for the … Well we best close the door then, no more low skilled jobs for the immigrants. I guess we'll still have the Bankers though.



    This issue goes far, far beyond immigration. This isn't just competition for jobs increasing but whole occupations simply ceasing to exist because of automation.

    Banking has had far more automation introduced in just the time I've been in it. You still need a human hand guiding it but who knows for how long?

    1970's
    "Synthesisers will put all real musicians out of work".
    Edited by: "shasnir" 6th Dec 2016

    Original Poster

    spoo

    Considering people were saying exactly the same thing in the 1950s when … Considering people were saying exactly the same thing in the 1950s when the potential of computers and industrial robotics first started to be realised, I'm not too worried.

    Gentle_Giant

    "Millions of jobs will disappear because of automation"A bit late to … "Millions of jobs will disappear because of automation"A bit late to mention this, after all, it has been happening for well over 100 years.A factory where I worked went from nearly 4,000 shop floor workers to barely 1,200 when electronic welders and industrial robots were introduced in the late 1970's/early 1980s.20 years later, and that factory was replaced by a newly designed one that produced twice the amount of goods, with a shop floor staff of less than 800 (that factory was in France, so the UK lost all of those jobs).

    airfix

    Old news, this happened to farming in the 1950's

    airfix

    Old news, this happened to farming in the 1950's

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    Thoughts? X)



    I'm laughing at Just how unprepared humans are for this.

    Alternatively one could cry.

    LLe

    Less workers = less tax = bad idea

    A.I. was discussed by the bilderberg group a couple of years ago, they came up with the idea to introduce a minimum income for everyone. Sweden was chosen to introduce it as an experiment but unfortunately the sweed's rejected the idea in a referendum this year. A.I. is far more than just automation, it will lead to millions being out of work, and its not far away.

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    This issue goes far, far beyond immigration. This isn't just competition … This issue goes far, far beyond immigration. This isn't just competition for jobs increasing but whole occupations simply ceasing to exist because of automation.Banking has had far more automation introduced in just the time I've been in it. You still need a human hand guiding it but who knows for how long?


    Do you currently just press the odd button everyday?. Since you're on here 23/7 what does your job involve? Do you work with others?. I agree automation is taking over and has been for a long time.

    Original Poster

    shauneco

    Do you currently just press the odd button everyday?. Since you're on … Do you currently just press the odd button everyday?. Since you're on here 23/7 what does your job involve? Do you work with others?. I agree automation is taking over and has been for a long time.



    Your premise is faulty since I'm not on here 23/7, or even 24/7 which is what most of us measure our weeks in.

    shauneco

    Well we best close the door then, no more low skilled jobs for the … Well we best close the door then, no more low skilled jobs for the immigrants. I guess we'll still have the Bankers though.



    ​You and your rhyming slang!

    shauneco

    I agree automation is taking over and has been for a long time.

    Its not just automation Sean, its artificial inelegance. Machines will be able to make autonomous decisions without human intervention.

    As many have said on here automation isn't new nor is the social upheaval of it, think back to the original Luddites.

    You seem to be worried that there is likely to be a step change in current automation levels which will affect many low paid jobs. This is inevitable and is likely to affect much more than low paid jobs. If you are a banker, for example, then you should be worried about the threat of AI on your prospects for employment.

    Society is good at adapting to these threats simply because the money made by people who benefit from automation still needs to be spent. So service jobs will appear to help those fortunate ones spend their money. Maybe hire a personal chef or bodyguard, or pay someone to go to Amazon Go on their behalf or pay people to be in a club so they are not dancing on their own, who knows?

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    Your premise is faulty since I'm not on here 23/7, or even 24/7 which is … Your premise is faulty since I'm not on here 23/7, or even 24/7 which is what most of us measure our weeks in.



    He was allowing you an hour a day to go take a dump and pick up you pizza order.

    Original Poster

    colin4man

    As many have said on here automation isn't new nor is the social upheaval … As many have said on here automation isn't new nor is the social upheaval of it, think back to the original Luddites.You seem to be worried that there is likely to be a step change in current automation levels which will affect many low paid jobs. This is inevitable and is likely to affect much more than low paid jobs. If you are a banker, for example, then you should be worried about the threat of AI on your prospects for employment.Society is good at adapting to these threats simply because the money made by people who benefit from automation still needs to be spent. So service jobs will appear to help those fortunate ones spend their money. Maybe hire a personal chef or bodyguard, or pay someone to go to Amazon Go on their behalf or pay people to be in a club so they are not dancing on their own, who knows?



    I like the idea of paying someone to go to the shops on your behalf. Maybe Amazon could create a system whereby you purchase things without having to leave the house. Is that something you could imagine? X)

    There's absolutely scope for more automation in the banking sector but I think that there will always be scope for skilled workers in areas that require the 'human touch', be it in business, education, healthcare etc.

    The issue we face is that millions of low skilled jobs will disappear and we don't currently have a system to cope. Maybe we have a minimum guaranteed income but that fundamentally alters human life as we've known it.

    spoo

    Considering people were saying exactly the same thing in the 1950s when … Considering people were saying exactly the same thing in the 1950s when the potential of computers and industrial robotics first started to be realised, I'm not too worried.

    Gentle_Giant

    "Millions of jobs will disappear because of automation"A bit late to … "Millions of jobs will disappear because of automation"A bit late to mention this, after all, it has been happening for well over 100 years.A factory where I worked went from nearly 4,000 shop floor workers to barely 1,200 when electronic welders and industrial robots were introduced in the late 1970's/early 1980s.20 years later, and that factory was replaced by a newly designed one that produced twice the amount of goods, with a shop floor staff of less than 800 (that factory was in France, so the UK lost all of those jobs).

    airfix

    Old news, this happened to farming in the 1950's

    airfix

    Old news, this happened to farming in the 1950's

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    Thoughts? X)



    Not just lowly workers though, the stock market is pretty much run by AI these days, with the paper wavers being mostly for decoration.

    Someone mentioned synths, well I hate to tell you this, but unless you achieve mega stardom, being a genuine musician is a road to starvation these days, unless you are prepared to teach children privately (state school music lessons have been cut to the bone marrow)

    in the 70s and 80s we were told that we would be working 3 days a week, everything would be automated and robots would be running everything. Reality is most people are working a lot more than 40 hours a week now, factories have changed and employ less people than ever at least in the west.

    Robotics has become a new buzz word in many areas of business at the moment but people will still be needed just how many is the question.

    Get a job in cyber security. Job done.

    shauneco

    Well we best close the door then, no more low skilled jobs for the … Well we best close the door then, no more low skilled jobs for the immigrants. I guess we'll still have the Bankers though.


    Nooo we need low skilled immigrants . They come here , do ALL the horrible jobs (for minimum wage) , never use the NHS , don't use schools , don't get any benefits whatsoever , pay thousands in tax ... That's cheaper than a robot .

    Op, I thought you were at the Supreme Court today giving advice to the EU Brexit negotiator?

    anyone who believes this hasn't seen a robot go bat **** crazy when it loses calibration or position oO Not so funny when it tears itself apart when it goes nuts. Well funny to watch...

    kester76

    anyone who believes this hasn't seen a robot go bat **** crazy when it … anyone who believes this hasn't seen a robot go bat **** crazy when it loses calibration or position oO Not so funny when it tears itself apart when it goes nuts. Well funny to watch...


    Yeah I saw terminator .. He would be crap at packing boxes or assembling washing machines I bet .
    Edited by: "plodging" 6th Dec 2016

    Original Poster

    eslick

    in the 70s and 80s we were told that we would be working 3 days a week, … in the 70s and 80s we were told that we would be working 3 days a week, everything would be automated and robots would be running everything. Reality is most people are working a lot more than 40 hours a week now, factories have changed and employ less people than ever at least in the west. Robotics has become a new buzz word in many areas of business at the moment but people will still be needed just how many is the question.



    As you said, a lot of those factory jobs did disappear either through automation or exported to cheaper markets.

    The next industrial revolution will be that on steroids.

    There are 300,000 taxi/private hire drivers in the U.K., 250,000 hgv drivers and however many delivery drivers in the U.K. none of which will be as safe, as efficient or as cost effective over time as a human.

    So that's maybe 600,000 jobs at least that could disappear simply because of self-driving vehicles.

    If this new amazon go tech takes off, how many supermarket staff do you lose?

    Not all shop staff would go, but if you have a system that works 24/7, is a better customer experience, does a better job of eliminating theft, never gets tired, never kicks up a stink and is cheaper then a lot of stores would move over.

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    As you said, a lot of those factory jobs did disappear either through … As you said, a lot of those factory jobs did disappear either through automation or exported to cheaper markets.The next industrial revolution will be that on steroids. There are 300,000 taxi/private hire drivers in the U.K., 250,000 hgv drivers and however many delivery drivers in the U.K. none of which will be as safe, as efficient or as cost effective over time as a human.So that's maybe 600,000 jobs at least that could disappear simply because of self-driving vehicles.If this new amazon go tech takes off, how many supermarket staff do you lose?Not all shop staff would go, but if you have a system that works 24/7, is a better customer experience, does a better job of eliminating theft, never gets tired, never kicks up a stink and is cheaper then a lot of stores would move over.


    The governments of the west could all collude , start a meaningless war and get rid of the poor unskilled that way .. Job done .

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    I like the idea of paying someone to go to the shops on your behalf. … I like the idea of paying someone to go to the shops on your behalf. Maybe Amazon could create a system whereby you purchase things without having to leave the house. Is that something you could imagine? X)There's absolutely scope for more automation in the banking sector but I think that there will always be scope for skilled workers in areas that require the 'human touch', be it in business, education, healthcare etc.The issue we face is that millions of low skilled jobs will disappear and we don't currently have a system to cope. Maybe we have a minimum guaranteed income but that fundamentally alters human life as we've known it.



    Judging by your reply you seem to have missed the main concept of Amazon Go. They are not introducing this service to compete against themselves, that would be silly. The concept is that Amazon Go is for those items that "you just can't wait for".

    I wonder how many people over time have said exactly what you are saying about their jobs. 'Human touch' I can think of only one industry, the oldest profession in the world, where the human touch is a vital element.

    Like I said, society has a long history of adapting to these situations and the rise of the service sectors is testament to that. Like all change there are opportunities which appear that people will take advantage of.

    Paying someone to do nothing is a possible solution, but would need to be funded in the form of taxes and tariffs, probably by the very people who most benefit from automation or those lucky enough to still have a job.
    Maybe the gamers on here, who you seem to have a problem with, are one step ahead of the rest of us on this and we will all find different ways of filling our time.

    plodging

    The governments of the west could all collude , start a meaningless war … The governments of the west could all collude , start a meaningless war and get rid of the poor unskilled that way .. Job done .

    They do that anyway.
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