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    Pound value, rise or decline?

    Hi all,

    Maybe a difficult question because if we knew the answer we wouldn't be sat on a HUKD forum maybe. But I am due to spend a considerable sum of money with a Chinese supplier and was wondering if anyone has any informed decisions in regards to how the pound may go over the next few weeks? Wondering if it's best to cut my losses now and order before it drops further or could it pickup and I could save some money.

    Any help greatly appreciated

    22 Comments

    The only way is down, the financial papers are talking about it being down to $1.10 by spring
    Edited by: "jase.2" 15th Oct 2016

    If they keep up the whole brexit thing then it's only going to keep dropping.
    About the only way it will rise any time soon is if they forget about brexit and stay in the EU, otherwise it's 2+ years of the pound being devalued

    low pound - and high-inflation (due to imports)! Once Art. 50 button is pushed... then we will see how the markets fare.

    The low pound is not good for imports however it will be excellent for exports & also make UK goods more competitive on the market as they will be cheaper compared to rivals from other nations. Is it not possible to order the goods you want from China from the UK, they will be far more closer in value now the £ has dropped

    not sure why down-votes - fact, Brexiteers forgot to say what the economic consequences might be... but its ok, we will have secure borders lol

    Pound will be low until after the german election next year

    Pound will stay around this level may be 5% down until we get near the Brexit date, then it will fall big time and then steadily climb back up to around these levels until some good comes out of the talks or France and Germany vote to leave the EU then it will jump up 10-15% . These are my opinions.

    It's a simple answer, if the so called experts think it's going lower then it will go higher. But to be honest it's hardly going to be a risk to wait as it shouldn't go much lower but you could always balance it out by buying another currency now.

    The currency market is just another bookmakers shop, doesn't really reflect what's going on in the world, I remember 1992. In my opinion those talking about the meaning are just offering excuses. The very reason it will rise is because they only make money on the ebb and flow, slowly buying now at the level in the hope to sell later, it's not rocket science and not hard when you are using other people money.

    Splodger101

    not sure why down-votes - fact, Brexiteers forgot to say what the … not sure why down-votes - fact, Brexiteers forgot to say what the economic consequences might be... but its ok, we will have secure borders lol



    Pfft, you can prove anything with facts

    I had a large swap to make into euros and did it when the rate was 1.37 luckily. It will drop to around 1:1 as long as they keep discussing brexit. What I can't understand is they fail to reflect the underlying issues in the eurozone - these haven't gone away. It seems the rate is purely linked to confidence - and a lot of big boys playing with mass amounts of money. The rates will always hover around milestone points like 1.10 as big investors have purchase and sell options on these points - that's why it drops below for a short period and comes back - unless there is underlying data which supports movement. But this doesn't seem to matter either. Draghi can also not be trusted to deliver the change you want - when he speaks the euro strengthens even if it is bad news lol. When BoE speaks pound always falls lol !! US interest rate is also likely to go up soon which will strengthen USD and weaken euro and pound. That is my experience anyway - what I have learnt is if you can't afford to do it if it drops further do it now or puta stop order in I think they call it.

    BoE are also talking of potentially lower interest rates which will weaken pound !!

    It will be about 3-4 years until the pound bounces back to a better rate, It'll all be worth it in the long term, The market is merely reacting to the announcement, It was predicted and it's to be expected.

    joedastudd

    If they keep up the whole brexit thing then it's only going to keep … If they keep up the whole brexit thing then it's only going to keep dropping. About the only way it will rise any time soon is if they forget about brexit and stay in the EU, otherwise it's 2+ years of the pound being devalued



    Not really. If the government went against the referendum then that would also cause damage to the pound.

    At this point there aren't any good options, it's just about minimising the damage of Brexit.

    Original Poster

    Hi all

    Thanks for the comments is really helpful. Unfortunately buying same in U.K. Is not possible for anywhere near the same price even with this fluctuation. As the business is based on great value unfortunately price is everything
    Thanks again

    JboyJayJason

    Hi allThanks for the comments is really helpful. Unfortunately buying … Hi allThanks for the comments is really helpful. Unfortunately buying same in U.K. Is not possible for anywhere near the same price even with this fluctuation. As the business is based on great value unfortunately price is everythingThanks again




    Do you sell on the UK marketplaces like eBay and Amazon? Or do you sell to the US market - so again Amazon US and Shopify perhaps?

    I found that my Amazon US and Shopify payments in USD make up for the devaluing of the GBP.

    EndlessWaves

    Not really. If the government went against the referendum then that would … Not really. If the government went against the referendum then that would also cause damage to the pound. At this point there aren't any good options, it's just about minimising the damage of Brexit.


    Not really while anyone pro leave would be annoyed, the government would look strong and the future of the country would be a lot less uncertain.
    The drop in the pound is all down to the uncertainty over the future of the country and the weaker position it would be in after article 50 especially without a clear plan.

    Anything giving stability to the country's future would help the pound.
    Even if the government made public a fully detailed exit plan, got 100% backing of the nation and the politicians and set it all in stone noone knows for sure that's going to happen to the UK and if successful if any other EU countries would follow and cause trouble for the EU and single market.

    wait.

    Original Poster

    Zak_K

    Do you sell on the UK marketplaces like eBay and Amazon? Or do you sell … Do you sell on the UK marketplaces like eBay and Amazon? Or do you sell to the US market - so again Amazon US and Shopify perhaps?I found that my Amazon US and Shopify payments in USD make up for the devaluing of the GBP.



    Hi Zak

    Sell via Shopify to all countries. Business has become quite international over the past few months so I receive majority in Pounds but some other currencies too.

    joedastudd

    Not really while anyone pro leave would be annoyed, the government would … Not really while anyone pro leave would be annoyed, the government would look strong and the future of the country would be a lot less uncertain.The drop in the pound is all down to the uncertainty over the future of the country and the weaker position it would be in after article 50 especially without a clear plan.Anything giving stability to the country's future would help the pound.Even if the government made public a fully detailed exit plan, got 100% backing of the nation and the politicians and set it all in stone noone knows for sure that's going to happen to the UK and if successful if any other EU countries would follow and cause trouble for the EU and single market.



    and as soon as people get bored of the UK they will focus on the fact that actually Europe is very unstable - migrant crisis, OPEC reducing the supply of oil, debt issues in Greece and Spain and the key fact that a weak pound is really bad for EU countries. The UK should have got on with it, they have created this issue by delaying it all, I know it all takes time but this doesn't help sterling does it. I voted to stay but leaving isnt so bad, we should just do it. Cameron and farage and even corbin haven't helped - but look at the US - Clinton and Trump, how on earth does that fill you with confidence and strengthen the dollar !!!! It all stems from the currency dealers - they are as bad as the bankers - playing with everyones money

    this has driven me mad over the past 12 months, it is like gambling - waiting for the next bit of data to see if it will be good or bad - and it never really affected the exchange rate the right way eg good UK data, pound went up initially then down; Draghi said additional stimulus, euro strengthened, we do it, pound drops like a stone ! the rate should be 1:1.50 minimum. £100 shopping in UK costs around 200 euros in Ireland from experience

    JboyJayJason

    Hi ZakSell via Shopify to all countries. Business has become quite … Hi ZakSell via Shopify to all countries. Business has become quite international over the past few months so I receive majority in Pounds but some other currencies too.



    Are you dropshipping? I find that the margins are quite low with dropshipping so any fluctuation like we have now with GBP can wipe you out.

    If you're using Shopify I'd recommend using Payoneer and then withdraw funds when the exchange rate is a bit more favourable.

    i would do it now, it's only going to drop further until quite a while away when there's more certainty in the market.
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