Groups

    UK in 2030 - Older population, greater automation and widespread frustration?

    The analysis, which draws on data from the OECD, the ONS and numerous economists and researchers, forecasts a 30% increase in the number of over-65s in the population by 2030, and a doubling of the number of over-85s. It predicts that the proportion of the population that is non-white will climb to more than one in five within 12 years.

    The world of work will be revolutionised with millions of jobs in retail and manufacturing disappearing as a result of automation and the internet, the report says. Income inequality will become more entrenched, as will the wealth gap between London and the rest of the country

    71 Comments

    yes and no. predictions are usually wrong such as the public won't vote Brexit, banks are too big to fail, Trump won't become President, we will all have flying cars, Calais jungle won't be razed to the ground etc. etc.

    Original Poster

    A fairly wide-ranging report that surmises a lot of points people have been discussing for the last six months and presents a less than rosy picture of the next decade.

    The ageing population issue will grow, jobs will simply vanish as automation creeps into more professions, low-skilled workers will see their wages stagnate which will lead to a greater wage gap and there will also be a spending gap.

    My advice - don't let yourself become a victim of what is on the horizon.

    I agree, wie spread frustration?

    Original Poster

    davewave

    yes and no. predictions are usually wrong such as the public won't vote … yes and no. predictions are usually wrong such as the public won't vote Brexit, banks are too big to fail, Trump won't become President, we will all have flying cars, Calais jungle won't be razed to the ground etc. etc.



    Polls can be inaccurate but you seem to be conflating long-term trends with that, and science fiction apparently.

    Automation is certainly coming, the population is certainly ageing and wage stagnation for low-earners has been ongoing for years so I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with.

    Banned

    Nice to see misc back to normal.

    MrScotchBonnet

    Nice to see misc back to normal.



    Nice isn't the word id use

    Original Poster



    MrScotchBonnet

    Nice to see misc back to normal.

    MrScotchBonnet

    Nice to see misc back to normal.



    I trust you both had a joyous Christmas.

    This report basically takes all the issues people have been arguing about and puts them into sharp focus. It's not really a depressing future because it paints an idea of 'two Britains' (something I've mentioned for a while now), but if you're on the wrong side then life is going to be tough.

    It has little to do with immigration or Brexit in my opinion. Jobs are going to disappear and if you don't have something unique to offer then it's only going to get harder.

    I fully expect flying cars by 2030.

    Original Poster

    david_wavid

    I fully expect flying cars by 2030.



    No chance. No reason for them to be honest beyond novelty value.

    Self-driving cars are going to be commonplace by then though. That'll be one of the drivers of greater automation and huge job losses.

    david_wavid

    I fully expect flying cars by 2030.


    Presumably piloted by pigs.

    You say all this without adding a source ?

    I hope it's not the same one ran by the Guardian which is EU funded.

    Original Poster

    rodders443

    You say all this without adding a source ?I hope it's not the same one … You say all this without adding a source ?I hope it's not the same one ran by the Guardian which is EU funded.



    bbc.co.uk/new…135

    There is nothing at all extreme about the conclusions they draw. Look past the EU element and you'll see that populations are ageing, greater automation is in the near future and wages amongst low earners have been stagnant for a while now - that's all independent of Brexit's ramifications.

    Nice thread

    So uh, if there is automation there be some jobs for techies!

    But wont everyone else slowly start to buy shares in businesses? Or the government, like Norway did with the oil is to take a major investment in industry and then pay people and provide through the revenue.

    Seems to be me if your bleak and bleary the future is a dump. If your smart then future will surely be one where robots work for us. We work less and enjoy more time for "ourselves".

    Worth noting, most of eastern Europe will probably be under Russian influence and control by 2030 anyway, and if you wish to live and work like its 1999 then maybe that's where you should get a one way ticket too!

    Original Poster

    groenleader

    So uh, if there is automation there be some jobs for techies!But wont … So uh, if there is automation there be some jobs for techies!But wont everyone else slowly start to buy shares in businesses? Or the government, like Norway did with the oil is to take a major investment in industry and then pay people and provide through the revenue.Seems to be me if your bleak and bleary the future is a dump. If your smart then future will surely be one where robots work for us. We work less and enjoy more time for "ourselves".Worth noting, most of eastern Europe will probably be under Russian influence and control by 2030 anyway, and if you wish to live and work like its 1999 then maybe that's where you should get a one way ticket too!



    A guaranteed minimum income is a possibility but it would be a massive change for society to make, especially under the current government.

    Of course there will be jobs created to deal with these new technologies too, but the report seems to suggest they'd be greatly outnumbered by the number of jobs that would be under threat. What I think is more likely is that (as the report suggests) the gap between the vulnerable and those who thrive would become greater and deeper entrenched.

    It is a gloomy future for some but also one of great opportunity if people are suitably prepared.

    The biggest Remoaners in the land, the BBC. A Corporation anti everything except change to their cushy organisation.

    I'm finding it hard to care

    Original Poster

    coathanger

    The biggest Remoaners in the land, the BBC. A Corporation anti everything … The biggest Remoaners in the land, the BBC. A Corporation anti everything except change to their cushy organisation.



    Brexit will certainly provide challenges but setting that to one side the issues of an ageing population, greater automation and wage stagnation are not going away. In fact they're getting worse.

    That means that low-skilled workers are going to see drops in their standard of living.

    Pithy name-calling won't alter that.

    Original Poster

    DarkEnergy2012

    I'm finding it hard to care



    That's fine. You're either financially stable to the point where issues such as the one's highlighted won't affect you or you don't want to acknowledge the coming issues.

    If it's the latter then you may be in trouble. Anyone not ensuring that themselves and their families are prepared will find themselves in the 'other' Britain.

    Banned

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    That's fine. You're either financially stable to the point where issues … That's fine. You're either financially stable to the point where issues such as the one's highlighted won't affect you or you don't want to acknowledge the coming issues.If it's the latter then you may be in trouble. Anyone not ensuring that themselves and their families are prepared will find themselves in the 'other' Britain.



    Is the pound note the only thing that makes you tick?

    Automated wife that you can turn off?, Can't wait :).

    Original Poster

    cchopps

    Is the pound note the only thing that makes you tick?



    No, my family and personal ambition drives me. Hope you had a lovely Christmas.


    shauneco

    Automated wife that you can turn off?, Can't wait :).



    That's.....revealing.

    That's it!

    I am going to commit to following Islam & move to Syria.

    How worse can it be?

    I fail to see the news?
    People have been getting older for generations now. Why is the next 13 years any different to the 13 before of after?

    As for automation taking jobs this is not news either. It's been killing jobs for decade's. Steel, coal, textiles have all been hit by automation over the last 100 years. 13 more years wont make a difference.

    As for "My advice - don't let yourself become a victim of what is on the horizon."

    There is only one way to not become a victim of getting old and that is death. Are you promoting suicide?

    Banned

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    No, my family and personal ambition drives me. Hope you had a lovely … No, my family and personal ambition drives me. Hope you had a lovely Christmas.That's.....revealing.



    I did, thank you. And I hope you did too
    Edited by: "cchopps" 29th Dec 2016

    Original Poster

    GAVINLEWISHUKD

    I fail to see the news?People have been getting older for generations … I fail to see the news?People have been getting older for generations now. Why is the next 13 years any different to the 13 before of after?As for automation taking jobs this is not news either. It's been killing jobs for decade's. Steel, coal, textiles have all been hit by automation over the last 100 years. 13 more years wont make a difference.As for "My advice - don't let yourself become a victim of what is on the horizon."There is only one way to not become a victim of getting old and that is death. Are you promoting suicide?



    I'm not sure if you think an 'ageing population' is simply people getting old, in which case I can see why you'd think this wasn't news.

    Actually the 'ageing population' refers to their being more people above the ages of 65 and 85, and the associated costs with looking after these people.

    Automation is going to increase at a faster rate because that's what technology tends to do, and that's going to lead to jobs disappearing.

    The report also factors in the effects of Brexit but including that would've upset some people (despite their employers almost certainly factoring it into their short and mid-term projections).

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    I'm not sure if you think an 'ageing population' is simply people getting … I'm not sure if you think an 'ageing population' is simply people getting old, in which case I can see why you'd think this wasn't news. Actually the 'ageing population' refers to their being more people above the ages of 65 and 85, and the associated costs with looking after these people.Automation is going to increase at a faster rate because that's what technology tends to do, and that's going to lead to jobs disappearing.The report also factors in the effects of Brexit but including that would've upset some people (despite their employers almost certainly factoring it into their short and mid-term projections).



    So are you saying before this "news" you were unaware of an "aging population"?

    Actually I disagree about mechanical and electo-machanical automation increasing faster. It's hardly increased at all in recent times. The majority of jobs taken by it have gone already. Yes more will go but not many by comparison.

    As for brexit. These jobs won't be lost by automation but by the lower demand for products.

    Example. 40 years ago it took 20 people to build a car. 20 years ago it took 10. Today it takes 3. In 2030 it may only take 1. Is it news you lost 2 jobs?

    GAVINLEWISHUKD

    Actually I disagree about mechanical and electo-machanical automation … Actually I disagree about mechanical and electo-machanical automation increasing faster. It's hardly increased at all in recent times. The majority of jobs taken by it have gone already. Yes more will go but not many by comparison.



    There have been exponential advances in robotics and artificial intelligence in recent years, those advances continue to happen, and there are more companies seizing on those advances to create robots, other machines or software specifically to complete tasks that could previously only be done by humans. What makes you think there won't be increase in jobs being replaced by automation? If companies can save money by using technology to replace humans they will do it for the sake of their bottom line and the shareholders, or they will lose out to competitors that do. It's inevitable.

    spaceinvader

    There have been exponential advances in robotics and artificial … There have been exponential advances in robotics and artificial intelligence in recent years, those advances continue to happen, and there are more companies seizing on those advances to create robots, other machines or software specifically to complete tasks that could previously only be done by humans. What makes you think there won't be increase in jobs being replaced by automation? If companies can save money by using technology to replace humans they will do it for the sake of their bottom line and the shareholders, or they will lose out to competitors that do. It's inevitable.



    I'm not saying there won't be more jobs lost (but that is not news). What I am pointing out is many jobs that can be automated have already done so over many years. I'm not expecting any leaps in this technology that can be rolled out in the next 13 years that has not already done so in the past. This counts for skilled and unskilled jobs.

    shauneco

    Automated wife that you can turn off?, Can't wait :).



    Im hoping for an automated wife i can turn on!

    So are you saying flying cars are a feature of these predictions, or not?

    We are not the only country in the world facing such problems, it's a world wide problem. We are actually not even in top 10 countries with an aging population.

    mapsofworld.com/wor…tml

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38459135There is nothing at all … http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38459135There is nothing at all extreme about the conclusions they draw. Look past the EU element and you'll see that populations are ageing, greater automation is in the near future and wages amongst low earners have been stagnant for a while now - that's all independent of Brexit's ramifications.



    The BBC got billions from the EU and refused to fully give a break down of what it went in. You've seen nothing but hysterical reporting on Brexit with a stunning sneering bias. Anything the BBC does,reports on or produces is tripe.

    They were stating the (from memory) 90% of 40-60 year olds are obese yesterday.

    Do these "experts" just have a bag of random/contradicting numbers to pluck from?

    I always seem to get a strong sense of déjà vu whenever the OP posts anything here!

    Original Poster

    rodders443

    We are not the only country in the world facing such problems, it's a … We are not the only country in the world facing such problems, it's a world wide problem. We are actually not even in top 10 countries with an aging population.http://www.mapsofworld.com/world-top-ten/world-top-ten-countries-with-oldest-population-map.html



    That doesn't mean it isn't an issue facing us, especially when it comes to social care costs.
    GAVINLEWISHUKD

    I'm not saying there won't be more jobs lost (but that is not news). What … I'm not saying there won't be more jobs lost (but that is not news). What I am pointing out is many jobs that can be automated have already done so over many years. I'm not expecting any leaps in this technology that can be rolled out in the next 13 years that has not already done so in the past. This counts for skilled and unskilled jobs.



    Taking your car example from earlier, automated cars are on the horizon and that will mean then end of jobs like lorry driving, taxi driving etc. I know people don't like to hear that but it's the truth.

    People can bury their heads in the sand if they like but technological unemployment will likely define the next half-century and if you don't have a skill that is required in the future then you and your family will struggle.

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    That doesn't mean it isn't an issue facing us, especially when it comes … That doesn't mean it isn't an issue facing us, especially when it comes to social care costs.Taking your car example from earlier, automated cars are on the horizon and that will mean then end of jobs like lorry driving, taxi driving etc. I know people don't like to hear that but it's the truth.People can bury their heads in the sand if they like but technological unemployment will likely define the next half-century and if you don't have a skill that is required in the future then you and your family will struggle.



    Normal lorry driving is very unlikely in the short term to be automated. Trunking between depots may well but not by 2030.
    As for taxis I would not expect it to be commonplace in the next 13 years.

    Now you have jumped from next 13 years to 50 years, that's quite a leap. But considering we went to the moon nearly 50 years ago and we can't get that technology into every day life I'm not so sure.

    As for jobs, all jobs are under threat not just these 'low skilled' jobs you keep talking about. In the next 13 years I suspect the biggest jobs will be lost in the financial services industry. But they are 'non skilled' rather than 'low skilled'.

    Original Poster

    GAVINLEWISHUKD

    Normal lorry driving is very unlikely in the short term to be automated. … Normal lorry driving is very unlikely in the short term to be automated. Trunking between depots may well but not by 2030.As for taxis I would not expect it to be commonplace in the next 13 years.Now you have jumped from next 13 years to 50 years, that's quite a leap. But considering we went to the moon nearly 50 years ago and we can't get that technology into every day life I'm not so sure.As for jobs, all jobs are under threat not just these 'low skilled' jobs you keep talking about. In the next 13 years I suspect the biggest jobs will be lost in the financial services industry. But they are 'non skilled' rather than 'low skilled'.




    I feel as though you're proving my point. Best of luck with that approach.

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    I feel as though you're proving my point. Best of luck with that approach.



    Which part of this discussion has been your point, rather than the findings of a report you have transposed?

    HotEnglishAndWelshDeals

    I feel as though you're proving my point. Best of luck with that approach.



    Well I'm sure fanpages will jump back to this thread in 13 years with an update. As we will all be unemployed by then I expect lots of input from people.
    Post a comment
    Avatar
    @
      Text
      Top Discussions
      1. What are you loving on the BBC at the moment?63218
      2. Can't delete friends on Xbox 360 or accept any friend requests, anyone know…33
      3. Sad Gazza anecdote August 8th 2017 - Beyond help?1118
      4. Sad news about Barcelona26113

      See more discussions