# Who's good with probability?

I thought of something this morning whilst snoozing my alarm...

If you play the National Lottery and pick the same numbers each week, do you have a greater probability each week of winning? I'm trying to remember back to what I was taught at school but its all a blur!

Surely if, for example, number 6 doesn't come up this week, there is an ever so slightly greater chance it will come up next week, and again the following week etc.

If you play the National Lottery and pick the same numbers each week, do you have a greater probability each week of winning? I'm trying to remember back to what I was taught at school but its all a blur!

Surely if, for example, number 6 doesn't come up this week, there is an ever so slightly greater chance it will come up next week, and again the following week etc.

Original Poster

WHITCH MAKES YOU REALISE THE PROBABLE CHANCE OF WINNING IS PROBABLY NOT WORTH DOING,PROBABLY:):oops:

Here's a quick example.....

6 numbers on a dice.....

the probability of 1 coming up is 1 in 6

1st roll: 1

2nd roll: 1

3rd roll: 1

4th roll: 1

5th roll: 1

for the 6th roll you must be thinking got to be 2,3,4,5 or 6 but any number still has a 1 in 6 chance of coming up including the 1 again.

Think roulette.......red or black, if red came up 24 times in a row you'd be thinking got to be black next but its still a 1 in 2 chance, same as red again.

That's the difference between 'possible' & 'probable'.

(Did you know that you can predict randomness? I had to study this as part of a course - all I could hear was a whooshing sound, as everything was flying well over my head :-D)

Original Poster

Banned

Thats your problem right there....

I try and do it as less as possible and rely on instinct...

makes the world a better place

That seems to work for my wife :thumbsup: . Every time we go to a casino I am good with numbers so I go by probability, she goes by instinct.

Guess who wins most of the time. You were quite right she does. Between the two at least we broke even :oops:

Lets take a example, if only 1 number is selected. You chose 3, your probability of winning between 0-9 is 1/10

lets say a draw is done, and it draws 2. Now you have two possibilities.

If the ball is then put back into the pool of balls for another draw, then the probability is back to 1/10

But if the ball is removed from the draw, your probability increases to 1/9 as only 9 balls are left.

and so on!!

In a casino, if you are playing Blackjack, you can use this principle to guess or predict the crads left in the deck, as everytime you play a hand, the cards are removed from the deck. Thus if your hand as all low numbers, your probability of higher value cards in the next hand increases.

Hope it helps

alottery!good read about it here

morning all

Don't forget that nasty green zero in there. :x

I still say the probability of winning the lottery is 50:50.

You either win or you don't. :w00t:

Choose a big rollover week as well.

Make a note of my email address and send me a share.

Half will be fine - I'm not a greedy person.

Suppose you're on a game show and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. The car and the goats were placed randomly behind the doors before the show. The rules of the game show are as follows: After you have chosen a door, the door remains closed for the time being. The game show host, Monty Hall, who knows what is behind the doors, now has to open one of the two remaining doors, and the door he opens must have a goat behind it. If both remaining doors have goats behind them, he chooses one randomly. After Monty Hall opens a door with a goat, he will ask you to decide whether you want to stay with your first choice or to switch to the last remaining door. Imagine that you chose Door 1 and the host opens Door 3, which has a goat. He then asks you "Do you want to switch to Door Number 2?" Is it to your advantage to change your choice?

give it some thought, it will suprise you.

You are obviously picking the wrong numbers every week.

Instead of 6 pick 43 numbers as you are brilliant at picking numbers that do not win (probably been picking the wrong numbers since it started haven't you)

Put your money on the 6 numers left, these should be the winning ones if your past record is anything to go by.

I've seen this before.

It's quite amazing. :thumbsup:

]http//ww…ll/

Not read through whole thread but this isn't correct. Same odds every time you roll the dice.

Banned

Better to switch as you originally had a 1 in 3 chance of picking the car leaving monty with a 2 in 3 chance of picking the car. Then monty has to eliminate a door with a goat.

Banned

Just noticed this!

Honest Guv :thumbsup:

technically less than a 1 in 2 chance on roulette as there is a green zero