Yesterday, the UK had over 4,000 new cases of COVID-19 & over 400 deaths. Let's worry about getting to 0

55
Posted 27th Apr
We need to focus on how to get to 0 new cases and 0 deaths, not whether we go out to garden centres and the shops. This is about real lives of your parents/kids/relatives/friends.

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE. Let's all simply focus on fewer infections/deaths/lives ruined. We can throw blame labelled bricks in due course.

Today, it's about lives.
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Lets not waste all these weeks we've stayed in , Keep Calm and Carry on. Don't come within 2M of me either.
I don’t know why they are reporting there were only 400 deaths! 400 is ALOT of people dying in one day. Think about all the families that have lost loved ones. Just stay at home, you have your whole life to go out and enjoy yourself unlike some people who will not make it.
To get cases of deaths to zero is pretty simple, just return to reporting people with terminals illnesses cause of death as their terminal illness rather than the flu.

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You what?
55 Comments
You what?
Think op might be against the re-opening of shops,

Lets hope Boris is an avid HUKDer so he knows ccnp says so despite the wealth of scientific knowledge he has around him I think this may trump it.
dont forget weekend and Mondays are always down, yes yesterdays were down significantly but dont think its time to get our hopes up just yet.
Lets not waste all these weeks we've stayed in , Keep Calm and Carry on. Don't come within 2M of me either.
The numbers are misleading as nothing gets reported over the weekend so those numbers aren't a true reflection of what's going on.
I don’t know why they are reporting there were only 400 deaths! 400 is ALOT of people dying in one day. Think about all the families that have lost loved ones. Just stay at home, you have your whole life to go out and enjoy yourself unlike some people who will not make it.
yet sweden with no lockdown had 2 deaths and they include community and care home deaths. weird!

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Deal.hunter12327/04/2020 09:51

Think op might be against the re-opening of shops,Lets hope Boris is an …Think op might be against the re-opening of shops,Lets hope Boris is an avid HUKDer so he knows ccnp says so despite the wealth of scientific knowledge he has around him I think this may trump it.


even italy are re-opening their bars and restaurants. That is definitely a step too far! Greece are planning on tourists from 1st July!

independent.co.uk/new…tml
To get cases of deaths to zero is pretty simple, just return to reporting people with terminals illnesses cause of death as their terminal illness rather than the flu.

40552275-OWapZ.jpg
chocci27/04/2020 11:27

even italy are re-opening their bars and restaurants. That is definitely a …even italy are re-opening their bars and restaurants. That is definitely a step too far! Greece are planning on tourists from 1st July! https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-lockdown-shops-bars-restaurants-work-schools-conte-a9485076.html


Greece has had a far stricter lockdown, that too starting very early. Unfortunately, our dithering and a light lockdown is probably going to drag this on even further. In turn, that will push even more people to break social contact rules. The fabulous weather hasn't helped as well.
It seems a very "sensitive" subject.
as soon as the lockdown is lifted, people are gonna act like coronavirus doesn’t exist anymore, and start meeting friends in bars, FACT!

it’s gonna be a total mess
If you stop testing you'll get 0 new cases thats the only way for at least the next 3 months especially given that not many test relative to the population are being done.

The death toll is misleading and not enough information is given to be able to make judgements
also, as @jimhuf said, stop reporting every death as coronavirus related

someone in hospital with a terminal illness, and 3 days to live, dies in 3 days,
they do tests and see they had coronavirus, they put this on the coronavirus death stats
they probably died from their terminal illness
chocci27/04/2020 11:27

even italy are re-opening their bars and restaurants. That is definitely a …even italy are re-opening their bars and restaurants. That is definitely a step too far! Greece are planning on tourists from 1st July! https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-lockdown-shops-bars-restaurants-work-schools-conte-a9485076.html



The Italian government follow the sciences.
The UK government follows the sciences.

====> corollary , follow the same sciences but pick n mix what you like <====

money.it/bar…ono
ilmessaggero.it/pol…tml

Italian takeaways, banned with re-open 4 May (home deliveries too).
British takeaways, allowed.

Italian restaurants, banned but planned 1 June with caveats for re-open (depends on stable R0 index of ~0.5, when every two people infected by COVID-19 infects one new person, restaurants have separated entry and exit, digital payment only, 1m distance etc. )

British restaurants, banned with no date and epidemiological instructions for re-ope as yet

Italian schools, shut till new academic year in September.
British schools, don't know.
Edited by: "splender" 27th Apr
Mendoza27/04/2020 12:18

as soon as the lockdown is lifted, people are gonna act like coronavirus …as soon as the lockdown is lifted, people are gonna act like coronavirus doesn’t exist anymore, and start meeting friends in bars, FACT!it’s gonna be a total mess



You are so right, Mendoza. This is my biggest fear. Some seem to think the Covid-19 virus is a "switch" and when it's turned off, life will go back to complete normality at a mere flick. Cinemas will be packed and pubs, bars and restaurants will be heaving due to many desperate to get out again if these businesses do nothing except open the doors.

This Government needs to REALLY tread carefully here. A gradual lockdown release is the only way to go but as we have already seen - people given an inch, take a mile! I have no real answers and I don't pretend to know how to achieve this. However, whilst I'm not in favour of masks WHILST frontline workers who need them are doing their best to manage this, I think that once lockdown IS lifted or relaxed, masks SHOULD be compulsory in public areas to contain transmission for a period of time.

What I do know is that we are on the edge of a cliff now and it's a coin toss as to whether we go over...
Edited by: "Phsycronix" 27th Apr
chocci27/04/2020 11:24

yet sweden with no lockdown had 2 deaths and they include community and …yet sweden with no lockdown had 2 deaths and they include community and care home deaths. weird![Image]


That's clearly dodgy data. If you look at the graph then it's obvious that there's a group of five big spikes corresponding to weekdays and two low spikes corresponding to weekends so for whatever reason deaths aren't being reported sundays like yesterday.

If you look at the overall shape of the graph then death rates are still climbing and they're likely to have the first day with 200 deaths in the next few days.
I agree with the steam roller comment and meme.

I would imagine recording Covid as the cause of death for those already suffering from an end of life condition or extreme old age is inflating numbers dramatically - people who were sadly expected to die anyway.
chocci27/04/2020 11:27

even italy are re-opening their bars and restaurants. That is definitely a …even italy are re-opening their bars and restaurants. That is definitely a step too far! Greece are planning on tourists from 1st July! https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-lockdown-shops-bars-restaurants-work-schools-conte-a9485076.html



yeah but they had a very different lockdown to us, proper lockdown, not our half baked one, there is a lot of moaning about ours but imagine if you couldnt go out at all for 7 weeks except for food or medical needs.

freakstyler27/04/2020 13:09

I agree with the steam roller comment and meme. I would imagine recording …I agree with the steam roller comment and meme. I would imagine recording Covid as the cause of death for those already suffering from an end of life condition or extreme old age is inflating numbers dramatically - people who were sadly expected to die anyway.



but it should be, those that died with it might have lasted another day, week, month even years you just dont know.
Phsycronix27/04/2020 12:37

You are so right, Mendoza. This is my biggest fear. Some seem to think the …You are so right, Mendoza. This is my biggest fear. Some seem to think the Covid-19 virus is a "switch" and when it's turned off, life will go back to complete normality at a mere flick. Cinemas will be packed and pubs, bars and restaurants will be heaving due to many desperate to get out again if these businesses do nothing except open the doors.This Government needs to REALLY tread carefully here. A gradual lockdown release is the only way to go but as we have already seen - people given an inch, take a mile! I have no real answers and I don't pretend to know how to achieve this. However, whilst I'm not in favour of masks WHILST frontline workers who need them are doing their best to manage this, I think that once lockdown IS lifted or relaxed, masks SHOULD be compulsory in public areas to contain transmission for a period of time.What I do know is that we are on the edge of a cliff now and it's a coin toss as to whether we go over...


I agree with what you saying but, I think it’s going to get a lot worse. They have these makeshift hospitals what are not used yet. They will be full shortly, once the government allow a little bit of freedom people will go daft and that’s when the spread will be at its worse..
eslick27/04/2020 13:19

yeah but they had a very different lockdown to us, proper lockdown, not …yeah but they had a very different lockdown to us, proper lockdown, not our half baked one, there is a lot of moaning about ours but imagine if you couldnt go out at all for 7 weeks except for food or medical needs. but it should be, those that died with it might have lasted another day, week, month even years you just dont know.


No they shouldnt be, they didnt record it previously if you died of flu in the same situation. It inflates the numbers and makes the situation appear much worse.
freakstyler27/04/2020 13:09

I agree with the steam roller comment and meme. I would imagine recording …I agree with the steam roller comment and meme. I would imagine recording Covid as the cause of death for those already suffering from an end of life condition or extreme old age is inflating numbers dramatically - people who were sadly expected to die anyway.


Research is being carried out on this very thing, but they have already suggested that they are dealing with the unknown, therefore the outcome of the research is going to be open to question. Sorry, I haven't got an online resource for this. I'm just repeating what my brother-in-law (head of infectious diseased in Ireland) told me.
I don't think we will ever know the truth about who actually died from the virus.
The 0 death and 0 case won’t happen until next year or maybe end of this year. It’s so scary and all people will think twice about holidays or even visiting relatives in another city.

I don’t think I’d risk going to beach in summer holidays at end of August either.
jimhuf27/04/2020 13:48

No they shouldnt be, they didnt record it previously if you died of flu in …No they shouldnt be, they didnt record it previously if you died of flu in the same situation. It inflates the numbers and makes the situation appear much worse.



But they do, doctors can mention it in different parts as they would for the flu.

"Mention of COVID-19 (new ICD-10 codes U071 and U072) on the death certificate is being processed following existing rules used for influenza. During March 2020, around 86% of deaths involving COVID-19 in England and Wales (that is, with COVID-19 mentioned anywhere on the death certificate) had COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death according to the WHO rules."

ons.gov.uk/peo…020
eslick27/04/2020 14:09

But they do, doctors can mention it in different parts as they would for …But they do, doctors can mention it in different parts as they would for the flu."Mention of COVID-19 (new ICD-10 codes U071 and U072) on the death certificate is being processed following existing rules used for influenza. During March 2020, around 86% of deaths involving COVID-19 in England and Wales (that is, with COVID-19 mentioned anywhere on the death certificate) had COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death according to the WHO rules."https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/methodologies/measuringpreexistinghealthconditionsindeathcertificationdeathsinvolvingcovid19march2020


Difference being the standard flu wasn't getting a daily kill tally on the news was it. if a terminal patient died, they didnt test the body after death, which they are doing now. Fact is, if you buy into the virus that's fine, personally i'm highly sceptical of the whole affair.
jimhuf27/04/2020 14:28

Difference being the standard flu wasn't getting a daily kill tally on the …Difference being the standard flu wasn't getting a daily kill tally on the news was it. if a terminal patient died, they didnt test the body after death, which they are doing now. Fact is, if you buy into the virus that's fine, personally i'm highly sceptical of the whole affair.


About two thirds of the way through this article, it looks at this very issue (covid being a notifiable illness).

spectator.co.uk/art…ink
Edited by: "sixgoldstars" 27th Apr
jimhuf27/04/2020 14:28

Fact is, if you buy into the virus that's fine, personally i'm highly …Fact is, if you buy into the virus that's fine, personally i'm highly sceptical of the whole affair.


yep you lost me with that comment
sixgoldstars27/04/2020 14:31

About two thirds of the way through this article, it looks at this very …About two thirds of the way through this article, it looks at this very issue.https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think


Already seen that, its clear the subject is splitting people. I honestly cant believe how accepting people are of a total lockdown without questioning the motives. Brexit was debated more strongly.
jimhuf27/04/2020 14:34

Already seen that, its clear the subject is splitting people. I honestly …Already seen that, its clear the subject is splitting people. I honestly cant believe how accepting people are of a total lockdown without questioning the motives. Brexit was debated more strongly.


In all honesty, I don't think it's that people are accepting the lock down - I think that they were actually a driver for it. I'm doubtful that we'd have closed schools were it not for pressure from teachers unions and parents. The same pressure will extend the opening times beyond when the government would actually like them to reopen.
Phsycronix27/04/2020 12:37

You are so right, Mendoza. This is my biggest fear. Some seem to think the …You are so right, Mendoza. This is my biggest fear. Some seem to think the Covid-19 virus is a "switch" and when it's turned off, life will go back to complete normality at a mere flick. Cinemas will be packed and pubs, bars and restaurants will be heaving due to many desperate to get out again if these businesses do nothing except open the doors.This Government needs to REALLY tread carefully here. A gradual lockdown release is the only way to go but as we have already seen - people given an inch, take a mile! I have no real answers and I don't pretend to know how to achieve this. However, whilst I'm not in favour of masks WHILST frontline workers who need them are doing their best to manage this, I think that once lockdown IS lifted or relaxed, masks SHOULD be compulsory in public areas to contain transmission for a period of time.What I do know is that we are on the edge of a cliff now and it's a coin toss as to whether we go over...


you said it better than me pal

but it’s what I wanted to say
chocci27/04/2020 11:27

even italy are re-opening their bars and restaurants. That is definitely a …even italy are re-opening their bars and restaurants. That is definitely a step too far! Greece are planning on tourists from 1st July! https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-lockdown-shops-bars-restaurants-work-schools-conte-a9485076.html


I read that and also the EU and looking at opening to the EU, not the UK
jimhuf27/04/2020 14:28

Difference being the standard flu wasn't getting a daily kill tally on the …Difference being the standard flu wasn't getting a daily kill tally on the news was it. if a terminal patient died, they didnt test the body after death, which they are doing now. Fact is, if you buy into the virus that's fine, personally i'm highly sceptical of the whole affair.


So would you stand on a stage in front of the friends and families of the 20000 people that died and say you're "highly skeptical of the whole affair."? I'd pay money to that show all day long
Edited by: "AgentDaleCooper" 27th Apr
AgentDaleCooper27/04/2020 15:41

So would you stand on a stage in front of the friends and families of the …So would you stand on a stage in front of the friends and families of the 20000 people that died and say you're "highly skeptical of the whole affair."? I'd pay money to that show all day long


I don't need to justify my opinion to anyone, being sceptical is not belittling anyone's situation or loss. Should we not question what is in front of us because it will upset some people? Will you stand in front of the remaining 60million people and tell them they are no longer free to live their lives because some of them may die?
jimhuf27/04/2020 16:01

I don't need to justify my opinion to anyone, being sceptical is not …I don't need to justify my opinion to anyone, being sceptical is not belittling anyone's situation or loss. Should we not question what is in front of us because it will upset some people? Will you stand in front of the remaining 60million people and tell them they are no longer free to live their lives because some of them may die?


To save lives for the sake of people not going and getting a coffee, or going to a shop or restaurant for several weeks - yeah I would
AgentDaleCooper27/04/2020 16:05

To save lives for the sake of people not going and getting a coffee, or …To save lives for the sake of people not going and getting a coffee, or going to a shop or restaurant for several weeks - yeah I would


ok
jimhuf27/04/2020 16:09

ok

Damn - I just realised you're a troll - rookie mistake on my part! Its like getting caught out on a phishing email - nicely done jimhuf. Now muted.
AgentDaleCooper27/04/2020 16:17

Damn - I just realised you're a troll - rookie mistake on my part! Its …Damn - I just realised you're a troll - rookie mistake on my part! Its like getting caught out on a phishing email - nicely done jimhuf. Now muted.


Whats the point in trying debate with you? "Now Muted" is a classic response from someone who dismisses the view of anyone who doesn't agree with them.
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jimhuf27/04/2020 14:28

Difference being the standard flu wasn't getting a daily kill tally on the …Difference being the standard flu wasn't getting a daily kill tally on the news was it. if a terminal patient died, they didnt test the body after death, which they are doing now. Fact is, if you buy into the virus that's fine, personally i'm highly sceptical of the whole affair.


The WHO says 20% of the European population get seasonal influenza and in a bad year 72,000 die from it:
euro.who.int/en/…nza

Let's say they're overestimating infections by half and only attributing 2/3 of deaths compared to currently so there's 93,600 deaths and 74.1 million people infected or 1,263 deaths.per million infections

The current coronavirus outbreak in the UK has 135,503 deaths per million confirmed cases.

The difference is huge. The idea that this is a normal flu outbreak that has got people worried because the numbers are being recorded differently is implausible.
jimhuf27/04/2020 14:28

Difference being the standard flu wasn't getting a daily kill tally on the …Difference being the standard flu wasn't getting a daily kill tally on the news was it. if a terminal patient died, they didnt test the body after death, which they are doing now. Fact is, if you buy into the virus that's fine, personally i'm highly sceptical of the whole affair.


You said, "Difference being the standard flu wasn't getting a daily kill tally on the news was it. if a terminal patient died, they didnt test the body after death, which they are doing now. Fact is, if you buy into the virus that's fine, personally i'm highly sceptical of the whole affair."


There are two separate independent subject matters in your paragraph:-

1/ Deaths with coronavirus only, death of coronavirus with an underlying cause, deaths of seasonal flu only.
2/ The daily kill tally on the news.

Which of 1/ and/or 2/ are you skeptical about?
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