Scammed on AliExpress, whats the chances of a refund

You have buyer protection from Aliexpress and credit card protection...
customerservice.aliexpress.com/kno…675

Your best hope is if the seller has disappeared as then when you raise a case the seller won’t dispute and the result should go in your favour. If the seller replies then most likely you’ll have to prove that the watch that the seller sent was fake and then it’ll be a back and fourth between you and the seller until Aliexpress step in and decide.

Years ago I ordered a phone that went missing in the post.  Tracked to the airport in China and never moved from there.  After a few weeks, I asked for a refund, as the item had not arrived on time, and there was no sign of it showing up at the airport. But Ali Express did refund me, to my surprise.  Even though the seller was telling me to wait longer.  So put in a claim with Ali Express with photos of the item as proof and see what happens. (edited)

None, but if paid with PayPal open a case if you have had dispute ignored by the seller for time given for PayPal resolutions dispute process. Do you even have the item you ordered yet as you state fake but don't state personally that you verified it as fake. Have you gotten co formation from Xiaomi it's fake by sending them images of your purchase. If they confirm from what you send that it is t genuine than yes you can raise a dispute, obviously PayPal if that's what you used would automatically side with you. If you didn't use PayPal and went on AliExpress then that's your fault

I watched a documentry last night called the China heist.
It was about chinese companies who list on the US stock exchange for billions but are totally worthless.
They get away with it because it's not illegal in China to steal from foreigners.

Nil.... Live and learn !

@Lil6ix I'm surprised you expected it to be genuine to be honest.

I've never bought from AliExpress as I thought the site only really sold fake items. I thought it was it was like eBay but far worse for counterfeit good. I assumed people shopped there as it's cheap and they weren't particularly bother about legitimate items.

I maybe poorly informed though but that's what I thought.

I have been buying quite a bit of tat from Temu at moment, but nothing of high valve, they are even cheaper than AliExpress on many things at moment.