Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will deliver the Spring budget on 15th March. Should be around 12:30pm after PMQ's. It will be accompanied by the latest economic and fiscal outlook from the OBR, with indications suggesting a shallower recession than previous thinking. Below is a summary of the 16 expected changes for the Spring budget, with a focus on halving inflation, growing the economy and reducing public debt. Will update tomorrow with the actual confirmed budget policies/decisions.
Key announcements from the Spring budget
Credit Sky News for summary info
Key things expected in budget / predictions
1. Energy Bills
Prediction: Support for Energy bills from the government is expected to continue for three months from April. The chancellor is expected to cancel a reduction in support that would have seen typical annual bills rise from £2500 to £3000, under the Energy Price guarantee.
What has now been confirmed: Now confirmed, Energy Price Guarantee stays at £2,500 for next three months until end of June
2. Prepayment energy meter bills
Prediction: More than four million households prepayment energy meter bills will be cut by £45 a year on energy bills from 1 July. This will happen by bringing prepayment energy charges in line with customers who pay by direct debit,
What has now been confirmed: Now confirmed, Pre-payment meter charges in line with comparable direct debit charges
3. Pension tax allowance
Prediction: The chancellor is expected to increase the lifetime allowance - the amount you can accumulate in your pension pot before paying extra tax. It could rise to £1.8m from the current limit of £1.07m. The amount workers can save into a pension before paying tax could rise to £60,000, from £40,000.
What has now been confirmed: The changes went further. The £1m Lifetime Allowance charge will be removed before being abolished altogether. Pensions annual tax-free allowance upped by 50% from £40,000 to £60,000
4. Universal credit childcare costs
Prediction: Families on universal credit could get more help - receiving childcare funding upfront, instead of having to claim it back. The £646-a-month per child cap on support for universal credit claimants is also expected to be raised by a few hundred pounds.
What has now been confirmed: Could not see any confirmation on this, so assume no change.
5. State pension age
Prediction: Currently, men and women start drawing their state pensions when they turn 66. That is due to gradually increase to 67 between 2026 and 2028, and to 68 between 2044 and 2046. Reports suggest a review will recommend that the increase to 68 is brought forward to the mid-2030s.
What has now been confirmed: Could not see any confirmation on this, so assume no change.
6. Fuel Duty
Prediction: Fuel duty could be frozen for a year. The government cut the tax by 5p in March, but that is due to end on 31 March. Plus with RPI inflation increases this could add a further 7p to the price of a litre of fuel (so a potential rise of 12p if no government action taken).
What has now been confirmed: Fuel duty frozen for the next 12 months
7. Investment zones for businesses
Prediction: 12 new Investment Zones across England are to be announced. Each will be backed with £80m of funding, including tax incentives.
What has now been confirmed: 12 new investment zones confirmed - "12 potential Canary Wharfs". If chosen, areas will have access to £80m of support
8. Corporation tax
Prediction: Tax paid by businesses is expected to rise from 19% to 25% in April. The rise is expected to go ahead.
What has now been confirmed: The planned increase from 19% to 25% in April will go ahead.
9. Long-term sick back to work
Prediction: The Chancellor is reportedly planning a ‘sick note crackdown’ - with a focus on getting long term sick people back into work. One idea under consideration is a new approach to how GPs decide whether people are too ill to work. Will wait to see whats announced.
What has now been confirmed: could not see anything confirmed in the budget around this.
10, Cigarettes and alcohol
Prediction: The price of a pack of cigarettes is expected to rise by £1.15 in line with RPI at tomorrow’s Budget. However alcohol duty is expected to be frozen until August.
What has now been confirmed: From 1 August, duty on draught products in pubs 11p lower than supermarkets
11. Public sector pay
Prediction: it is expected that there will be an announcement on public sector pay. The government has previously said existing department budgets only allow for a 3.5% public sector pay rise, but there are suggestion that this may increase by up to 5%
What has now been confirmed: Could not see anything confirmed on this.
12. Veterans
Prediction: Veterans to receive £33m funding package. The money will go towards a housing fund that will provide extra housing for veterans
What has now been confirmed: £30m to increase support and housing for veterans
13. Swimming pools
Prediction: England’s struggling swimming pools are to be offered a lifeline in the budget with the creation of a £63m fund to ease cost pressures.
What has now been confirmed: £63m fund to keep public leisure centres and pools afloat
14. Cleaner energy investment
Prediction: Expected to promise £1 billion a year for technology which can help capture carbon emissions. The £20 billion investment package will be made available over 20 years.
What has now been confirmed: £20bn allocated for development of Carbon Capture Usage and Storage. This will support up to 50,000 jobs
15. Defence spending
Prediction: The Prime Minister has recently stated that he UK's defence budget would be boosted by £5 billion in the Budget. Will await announcements tomorrow.
What has now been confirmed: £11bn added to defence budget over five years - and nearly 2.25% of GDP by 2025. Aim to raise this to 2.5% as soon as possible
16. Childcare:
Prediction: Free childcare for working parents in England is expected to be expanded in Wednesday's Budget to cover one and two-year-olds. Currently, working parents with three and four-year-olds are eligible for 30 hours of free childcare per week.
What has now been confirmed: Free childcare of 30 hours a week for working parents in England is being expanded to cover children from the age of nine months to two years old but will only be fully implemented by September 2025
Sources / related discussions
Spring budget 2023: When is it and what is likely to be in Jeremy Hunt's financial statement? - Sky News
Budget 2023: What could be in it and when will it happen? - BBC News
Budget 2023: Eight predictions for Jeremy Hunt's spring statement - Telegraph
Budget 2023: 11 expected announcements and what they mean for you - Local reach
Five things to look out for in Jeremy Hunt’s Budget - Financial Times
Energy bill support set to be extended / Energy bills Help + Discounts, Grants & more
Key announcements from the Spring budget
- Energy price guarantee stays at £2,500 for next three months
- 30 hours of free childcare for children aged over nine months with working parents by September 2025
- The £1m Lifetime Allowance charge will be removed before being abolished altogether
- Pre-payment meter charges in line with comparable direct debit charges
- £63m fund to keep public leisure centres and pools afloat
- Charities department to get cash injection of £100m
- £10m over two years to help voluntary sector with suicide prevention
- From 1 August, duty on draught products in pubs 11p lower than supermarkets
- Fuel duty frozen for the next 12 months
- £11bn added to defence budget over five years - and nearly 2.25% of GDP by 2025. Aim to raise this to 2.5% as soon as possible
- £30m to increase support and housing for veterans
- 12 new investment zones confirmed - "12 potential Canary Wharfs". If chosen, areas will have access to £80m of support
- £200m invested in local regeneration projects across England
- £161m for regeneration projects in Mayoral Combined Authorities and the Greater London Authority
- £400m for new Levelling Up Partnerships in areas including Redcar and Cleveland, Blackburn, Oldham, Rochdale, Mansfield, South Tyneside and Bassetlaw
- Second round of the City Region Sustainable Transport Settlements, allocating £8.8bn over next five-year funding period
- Potholes Fund boosted by £200m
- In Scotland, £8.6m of targeted funding for the Edinburgh Festivals and £1.5m funding to repair the Cloddach Bridge
- £20m for the Welsh government to restore the Holyhead Breakwater
- In Northern Ireland, £3m to extend the Tackling Paramilitarism Programme and up to £40m to extend further and higher education participation
- Greater responsibility for local leaders to grow their local economy
- On business taxation, there will be a new policy of "full expensing" for next three years, with intention to make it permanent
- Enhanced credit for small and medium-sized businesses that spend on R&D - a £1.8bn package of support
- 45% and 50% tax reliefs extended for theatres, orchestras and museums
- Climate Change Agreement scheme extended for two years
- £20bn allocated for development of Carbon Capture Usage and Storage. This will support up to 50,000 jobs
- Subject to consultation, nuclear power to be classed as "environmentally sustainable" in green taxonomy
- "Great British Nuclear" to help nuclear provide one quarter of electricity by 2050. UK is launching the first competition for Small Modular Reactors
- £900m of funding to implement recommendations in independent review for an exascale supercomputer
- Research and innovation programme of £2.5bn set out in quantum strategy
- Prize of £1m a year for 10 years to ground-breaking AI research - the Manchester Prize
- White paper to be published on disability benefits reform. Plans will abolish the Work Capability Assessment in Great Britain and separate benefit entitlement from an individual's ability to work
- Universal Support announced for England and Wales. This is a voluntary employment scheme for disabled people which will invest up to £4,000 to help get them into work
- £400m plan to increase availability of mental health support and expand Individual Placement and Support scheme
- Pensions annual tax-free allowance upped by 50% from £40,000 to £60,000
- "Returnerships" apprenticeship targeted at the over-50s will refine existing skills programmes to make them more accessible to older workers
- Pilot of £600 incentive for childminders who sign up to the profession, rising to £1,200 for those who join through an agency
- Funding to nurseries providing free childcare up by £204m from this September - rising to £288m
- Childcare costs of parents moving into work or increasing their hours on Universal Credit paid upfront rather than in arrears - and increased by around 50%
- The government will change minimum staff-to-child ratios from 1:4 to 1:5 for two-year-olds in England but make it "optional"
- All schools in England to offer wrap-around care either side of the school day for children by September 2026
Credit Sky News for summary info
Key things expected in budget / predictions
1. Energy Bills
Prediction: Support for Energy bills from the government is expected to continue for three months from April. The chancellor is expected to cancel a reduction in support that would have seen typical annual bills rise from £2500 to £3000, under the Energy Price guarantee.
What has now been confirmed: Now confirmed, Energy Price Guarantee stays at £2,500 for next three months until end of June
2. Prepayment energy meter bills
Prediction: More than four million households prepayment energy meter bills will be cut by £45 a year on energy bills from 1 July. This will happen by bringing prepayment energy charges in line with customers who pay by direct debit,
What has now been confirmed: Now confirmed, Pre-payment meter charges in line with comparable direct debit charges
3. Pension tax allowance
Prediction: The chancellor is expected to increase the lifetime allowance - the amount you can accumulate in your pension pot before paying extra tax. It could rise to £1.8m from the current limit of £1.07m. The amount workers can save into a pension before paying tax could rise to £60,000, from £40,000.
What has now been confirmed: The changes went further. The £1m Lifetime Allowance charge will be removed before being abolished altogether. Pensions annual tax-free allowance upped by 50% from £40,000 to £60,000
4. Universal credit childcare costs
Prediction: Families on universal credit could get more help - receiving childcare funding upfront, instead of having to claim it back. The £646-a-month per child cap on support for universal credit claimants is also expected to be raised by a few hundred pounds.
What has now been confirmed: Could not see any confirmation on this, so assume no change.
5. State pension age
Prediction: Currently, men and women start drawing their state pensions when they turn 66. That is due to gradually increase to 67 between 2026 and 2028, and to 68 between 2044 and 2046. Reports suggest a review will recommend that the increase to 68 is brought forward to the mid-2030s.
What has now been confirmed: Could not see any confirmation on this, so assume no change.
6. Fuel Duty
Prediction: Fuel duty could be frozen for a year. The government cut the tax by 5p in March, but that is due to end on 31 March. Plus with RPI inflation increases this could add a further 7p to the price of a litre of fuel (so a potential rise of 12p if no government action taken).
What has now been confirmed: Fuel duty frozen for the next 12 months
7. Investment zones for businesses
Prediction: 12 new Investment Zones across England are to be announced. Each will be backed with £80m of funding, including tax incentives.
What has now been confirmed: 12 new investment zones confirmed - "12 potential Canary Wharfs". If chosen, areas will have access to £80m of support
8. Corporation tax
Prediction: Tax paid by businesses is expected to rise from 19% to 25% in April. The rise is expected to go ahead.
What has now been confirmed: The planned increase from 19% to 25% in April will go ahead.
9. Long-term sick back to work
Prediction: The Chancellor is reportedly planning a ‘sick note crackdown’ - with a focus on getting long term sick people back into work. One idea under consideration is a new approach to how GPs decide whether people are too ill to work. Will wait to see whats announced.
What has now been confirmed: could not see anything confirmed in the budget around this.
10, Cigarettes and alcohol
Prediction: The price of a pack of cigarettes is expected to rise by £1.15 in line with RPI at tomorrow’s Budget. However alcohol duty is expected to be frozen until August.
What has now been confirmed: From 1 August, duty on draught products in pubs 11p lower than supermarkets
11. Public sector pay
Prediction: it is expected that there will be an announcement on public sector pay. The government has previously said existing department budgets only allow for a 3.5% public sector pay rise, but there are suggestion that this may increase by up to 5%
What has now been confirmed: Could not see anything confirmed on this.
12. Veterans
Prediction: Veterans to receive £33m funding package. The money will go towards a housing fund that will provide extra housing for veterans
What has now been confirmed: £30m to increase support and housing for veterans
13. Swimming pools
Prediction: England’s struggling swimming pools are to be offered a lifeline in the budget with the creation of a £63m fund to ease cost pressures.
What has now been confirmed: £63m fund to keep public leisure centres and pools afloat
14. Cleaner energy investment
Prediction: Expected to promise £1 billion a year for technology which can help capture carbon emissions. The £20 billion investment package will be made available over 20 years.
What has now been confirmed: £20bn allocated for development of Carbon Capture Usage and Storage. This will support up to 50,000 jobs
15. Defence spending
Prediction: The Prime Minister has recently stated that he UK's defence budget would be boosted by £5 billion in the Budget. Will await announcements tomorrow.
What has now been confirmed: £11bn added to defence budget over five years - and nearly 2.25% of GDP by 2025. Aim to raise this to 2.5% as soon as possible
16. Childcare:
Prediction: Free childcare for working parents in England is expected to be expanded in Wednesday's Budget to cover one and two-year-olds. Currently, working parents with three and four-year-olds are eligible for 30 hours of free childcare per week.
What has now been confirmed: Free childcare of 30 hours a week for working parents in England is being expanded to cover children from the age of nine months to two years old but will only be fully implemented by September 2025
Sources / related discussions
Spring budget 2023: When is it and what is likely to be in Jeremy Hunt's financial statement? - Sky News
Budget 2023: What could be in it and when will it happen? - BBC News
Budget 2023: Eight predictions for Jeremy Hunt's spring statement - Telegraph
Budget 2023: 11 expected announcements and what they mean for you - Local reach
Five things to look out for in Jeremy Hunt’s Budget - Financial Times
Energy bill support set to be extended / Energy bills Help + Discounts, Grants & more
Share with Messenger
261 Comments
sorted byThis is the real reason why the situation is such a mess. No-one trusts the government because even they don’t have the power to guarantee their own promises.
The pension cap change is (correctly) going to be seen as an obvious trap by anyone approaching pension age. Work longer, pay more into the pot, then before you can get near it we’ll be back to change the rules and take 55% of it.
No wonder people in the UK would rather waste their money on new phones and cars than saving for the future.
The pension time bomb is something successive governments keep ignoring and basically hoping it won’t go off whilst they are in power: too many are relying solely on the state pension for their retirement but this won’t be enough , but many are also likely to be unfit for any jobs that will exist , and the reduction in taxes combined with even greater use of the NHS …, kaboom.
1. Provided extra Childcare as long as both parents work
2. Froze tax bands until 2028 so every year more people pay more tax
3. Allowed those with no moneys worries to squirrel away as much as they want in pensions for tax breaks
Always been interested in peoples view of this, should we encourage those who have well paid positions and jobs to pay so much tax they're also having money worries to drag everyone down ? Or do you mean something else ? (edited)
We need help now!!!
If wholesale costs really rose in-line with our energy bills/pump prices, profits should remain level. Pure war profiteering with Ukraine invasion as an excuse to triple our bills with Tory support
After destroying economy to lowest level too, reward was £115k pension for 44 days of incompetence
Yet Tory voters keep mentioning Corbyn/Labour like they would be worse than the worst PMs and government ever (edited)
I was hoping they would add a caveat to the tax changes wrt investment, so that fossil fuel investments wouldn’t count.
That being said a lot of investment is needed to cap wells and cleanup and I guess that should be encouraged 🤷♂️. Just not sure this is the way to do it
I mean, who here isn't putting 1K a week away for their pension?
It's definitely not just bankers and the very well off. I'm sure all of us have four figures left over every week to put aside for retirement (if you haven't, you're probably just lazy).
Hopefully they can price another generation out of housing when they invest that into a third or fourth home and those of us in the middle can all continue to lap up the highest tax burden and the lowest period of growth the UK has ever "enjoyed".
I'm so so happy over two thirds of UK GDP now goes to less than 1% of people as well. Marvellous news it's up from half of all UK GDP going to them inside 13 years - much rather they can buy another yacht then any of it go to help all the homeless I now need to step over whenever I find myself in town (largely boarded up, of course). I think we can all agree trickle down definitely works and we are all infinitely better off, with more rights, and cleaner air and drinking water for shovelling more of our wages into their pockets.
Wibble. (edited)
Your local small business will make nowhere near that much profit. (edited)
Any money that we can reinvest into people - actual normal human beings should be favoured in any guise in my opinion, this is not our target for frustration. I'd far prefer my taxes to go onto people and the potential for properly nurtured children rather than a huge defence budget and the removal of local council funding to save on money.
We need less focus on our fellow people as being the problem, that's the distraction the government and papers use to keep us distracted from the actual issues. Let's give each other a break and focus on the government removing funding, social structure and huge amounts of money being funelled into the wrong places.
might happen before that date
news.sky.com/sto…830
thanks for the informative contribution to this conversation, hopefully some will learn something from your efforts
He explains some of justifications and criticisms of the policies announced yesterday
MIDDLE FINGER TO MIDDLE CLASS PEOPLE.
We are born to pay taxes and will die paying taxes
They'll keep believing these easy vote promises despite being the biggest failures/Selfservatives don't actually care as it's a Con to keep them in power (edited)
Working parents: With the expansion of 30 hours of free childcare for children aged over nine months, working parents will benefit from more affordable childcare. This will help reduce the cost burden and potentially enable parents to work more hours.
Pension savers: The Lifetime Allowance charge removal and increase in pensions annual tax-free allowance will benefit those saving for retirement. This change encourages more saving and investment in pension funds.
Low-income households: The extension of the Energy Price Guarantee at £2,500 and alignment of pre-payment meter charges with direct debit charges will help low-income households by reducing their energy costs.
Veterans: The £30m allocation for support and housing for veterans will benefit those who have served in the military and are in need of assistance.
Disabled individuals: The disability benefits reform and Universal Support will provide voluntary employment support for disabled individuals. This will help them get into work and improve their financial situation.
Small and medium-sized businesses: The £1.8bn package of support, including enhanced credit for R&D, will benefit businesses by encouraging innovation and growth.
People in need of mental health support: The £400m plan to increase mental health support will benefit those struggling with mental health issues by providing better access to services.
Older workers: The "Returnerships" apprenticeship for over-50s will help refine existing skills programs, making them more accessible for older workers and helping them remain in the workforce.
On the other hand, those who may not benefit as much or could face disadvantages are:
High-income earners: The increase in corporation tax from 19% to 25% may disproportionately affect high-income earners or those with investments in businesses.
Younger workers: The delayed expansion of free childcare for working parents until September 2025 may not benefit younger workers with children under nine months who are currently struggling with childcare costs.
Public sector workers: The lack of a confirmed increase in public sector pay beyond the previously stated 3.5% could mean that public sector workers may not see a substantial rise in their wages.
Universal Credit claimants expecting an increase in childcare support: The absence of a confirmed increase in childcare funding for Universal Credit claimants means they may not see additional support in this area.
Overall, the Spring budget appears to target working parents, pension savers, disabled individuals, and businesses with its various initiatives, while some groups like high-income earners and younger workers with very young children may not benefit as much from the changes.
I doubt any disabled people will be cheering this budget. It appears from all the analysis I've seen that with the scrapping of the W.C.A. the only people who will get the increased help are those in receipt of P.I.P. All this will do is force more people to apply for P.I.P. which has a ridiculously narrow concept of disability, is already massively overloaded, is about the help needed for additional day to day living expenses rather than the ability to do work and is so badly implemented that nearly 70% of decision that are taken to tribunal are overturned. It looks like a whole lot of people, especially those with complex and fluctuating conditions, are going to lose out massively.
Electricity and gas will be cheaper for next 3 months or more expensive?)
Anyone here remotely near that (or know someone near it)?
It seems a really odd thing to prioritise in the budget given everyone I know is close to going under right now. (edited)
and if they do you should really be questioning the level of care there able to provide.
It's not uncommon for people to feel that the announced changes in budgets, like the ones in the UK's Spring budget, may not lead to significant improvements in their lives. For middle-income families, it can sometimes feel like the changes are simply redistributing the financial burden without providing substantial benefits.
It's important to consider that the budget is trying to address a wide range of issues and concerns for various demographics within the country. Some of the changes may have a more direct impact on lower-income households or specific groups, such as veterans or disabled individuals.
For middle-income families like yours, some measures in the budget might still have a positive effect, even if they do not lead to a drastic change in your overall financial situation:
Freezing fuel duty for 12 months may provide some relief on transportation costs.
The expansion of free childcare hours for younger children could potentially save families thousands of pounds in childcare expenses over time, although this may take a few years to be fully implemented.
The increase in the pension annual tax-free allowance from £40,000 to £60,000 may offer long-term benefits by allowing you to save more for retirement without incurring additional taxes.
The £900 million investment in an exascale supercomputer and the research and innovation programme of £2.5 billion set out in the quantum strategy could potentially create new job opportunities and contribute to economic growth, which may indirectly benefit middle-income families.
While it's true that some changes in the budget may not have an immediate or significant impact on your family's financial situation, they are part of a broader set of policies designed to address various societal needs and promote economic growth. It's important to view these changes in the context of the bigger picture and how they may contribute to the overall well-being of the country.
That is a huge gift to the very very well off in the UK surely?
I barely know anyone who even makes 40-60K a year, let alone anyone who is putting that away for retirement.
It's a budget for bankers isn't it?
If plebs and SMEs used the same tax fudging practices like Amazon, Apple, MSoft etc do you reckon they'd take it easy on us?
Its a big scam. i.e. in 2019 Ngolo Kante paid more in Tax than amazon on Corp tax £1.7m .
Your local small business will make nowhere near that much profit.
Oh wait… by 2050, which arguably means 2075, and then 2085 when it’s deemed not economically viable.
Same crap when widening motorways on the cheap by using hard shoulder. Deathtrap.
Same with generating power they should have hard longer terms solutions decade's ago so we didn't have to be so reliant on imports and price fluctuations
So the current government who's got a 90% chance of losing the next election (Before 2025) this isn't touching the conservatives budget.. it'll be the next governments when there's absolutely nothing left over because the Tories have constantly siphoned it out into their mates companies over the past few years.
No wonder they don't want a GE now! It's a year or so when they've emptied the lot. (edited)
Finger on the pulse this lot!
theguardian.com/foo…-up
The only populace who get anything right are the French and we need to follow their lead.
Good luck (edited)
I was getting worried..
It never has been free, anything that is "free" is subsidized in some way through taxation or other means of generating money, someone has to pick up the bill somewhere along the line.
Probably because of the conflict and inflation we're in a sticky situation due to lack of investment from both parties (nuclear) and now paying the price for it literally. (edited)