House prices prediction.

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Posted 7th Mar 2023
Just like to gather thoughts on this.
We are looking to purchase bigger house.
Is it worth waiting as some prediction suggests house prices may be about to come down by 10% in next 12-18 months.
wondering what others who are looking to make purchase thinking .
Thanks
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  1. CalmerChameleon's avatar
    CalmerChameleon
    I predict house prices will come down but it's not going to have much effect on many other than the wealthy.

    If house prices come down, this will also affect the house that you're selling. Also mortgage rate rises drive down the market price, so you'd be paying a higher interest mortgage. When the rates come back down, the house prices rise back up. Only the wealthy who can buy houses outright, without borrowing, would see the benefit of house price drops. The rich always get richer in a recession.
  2. Easy.Action.Baby's avatar
    Easy.Action.Baby
    Market has frozen. Buyers are waiting for prices to drop and sellers just waiting it out. The only houses dropping prices are the ones which are distressed sales. Prices will fall (probably in London & south east where they went up quickly) and they will be back to where they were 12 months ago. New build will be slowed down to protect profits so prices won’t fall there remarkably
  3. Attic45's avatar
    Attic45
    6 months ago all the think tanks and specialists were predicting a tanking housing market by some 30% drop etc. it hasn’t happened.

    Its all supply and demand.

    Currently far too many people want a house for the stock that is available and thus houses prices will never really drop.
    powerbrick's avatar
    powerbrick
    wanting and affording are two different things.
  4. MrRee's avatar
    MrRee
    Look on Rightmove - most properties are labelled 'REDUCED' .... says all you need to know.

    New builds are being offered with 'Stamp Duty Paid' 'Free Carpets' 'Free Landscaping' .... says all you need to know.

    Buy to Let Landlords selling up .... says all you need to know.

    Mortgage approvals low ..... says all you need to know.

    Sentiment in buyers falling ..... says all you need to know.

    Estate Agents saying 'Market is good' whilst feeling sick about the future .... says all you need to know.

    Don't buy yet - wait for the 30% drop which will be seen late summer. (edited)
    CalmerChameleon's avatar
    CalmerChameleon
    I'm very doubtful there will be a 30% drop. All those statements are just standard fare for a depressed market. I'm guessing more 10% to 15% drop is more likely, but I guess we will have to see.
  5. Gingerdan's avatar
    Gingerdan
    Surely it all depends on your own situation.

    If you’re selling a property to buy a new property not sure makes any difference as property you’re purchasing may come down in price but probably yours would to.

    If you’re a cash buyer would only wait if there’s nothing you really like.

    If cash buyer and you’ve found a property you like would seem silly to wait - so make a cheeky offer and see what happens 
  6. CurvedSlightly's avatar
    CurvedSlightly
    Great time to buy a house, bad time to take out a motgage.
    littel.helper's avatar
    littel.helper Author
    isn't Mortgage cost and house price linked? I am assuming not many can afford out right purchase.
  7. TobiRIP's avatar
    TobiRIP
    Predictions I have seen say the financial situation will have a soft landing and at best/worst house prices will fall 5%. Of course the right property in the right place will go for the asking price and as there is still alot more buyers than sellers out there, I know of 4 peoples who have sold their property in the last few months and all have gone for the asking pricee or £5,000 under
  8. SaturdayGigs's avatar
    SaturdayGigs
    Its all the btl merchants who have been stuffed, they are the ones selling off as they can't afford repayments and thered better profit in savings rates.
  9. newbie68's avatar
    newbie68
    If it's the right house in the right area then buy it when you find it. Life is too short. Your worrying about negligible monies where house buying is concerned. Any fall will affect the value of your house when selling so no large gains to be made regardless. The mortgage is more important I would think at this time. Mortgage rates likely to be lower in the coming months. If mortgaging I would not be fixing medium or long term. If I had to buy now I would be looking to change mortgages quite early when more favourable rates arrive
    ozzmosiz's avatar
    ozzmosiz
    Why would mortgage rates be lower?
  10. psychobitchfromhell's avatar
    psychobitchfromhell
    I moved late last year. I sold mine for more than the asking price in less than a week and I bought my ideal house for less than I expected. Read into that what you will. At the end of the day I got exactly what I was looking for, and that to me was worth it. If I'd waited for prices to drop, the house would not have still been on the market and I would not now be watching the sun set over the forest beside me. Sometimes it is right to go with your heart, not your head
  11. mutley1's avatar
    mutley1
    preditions are just that, and prediction in the housing market can often go wrong because the housing market is a confusing beast.

    house prices are expected to continue to fall over the next year, but a gradual fall rather than a collapse. sellers are holding out and not selling in a bad market so house price may get low, but there isn't much on the market to buy.

    if you want to buy a bigger house, then now isn't a bad time to do it as house prices have already fallen since last year and your house would fall as well if you wait.
  12. Nikita_Percival's avatar
    Nikita_Percival
    House prices dropping where I live and still not shifting but again it’s not the right time to get a Mortage so the next few years could be interesting for sales
  13. adamnsu's avatar
    adamnsu
    House buying is one of the most stressful and painful processes in England.

    I would suggest you keep looking at houses and make an offer. With mortgages spiking that limits bids from other buyers.

    Also depending on the location, even if prices reduce, the savings might not be that much and you may face competition from other buyers and might have to increase your offers.
  14. littel.helper's avatar
    littel.helper Author
    One thing I have noticed lately is that there are more properties have come to market for sale.
    even new build developers have started to offer various discounts.
  15. margamboy's avatar
    margamboy
    Logic would say that houses still have some way to fall to stay affordable against thr higher IRs, also there are going to be I think 2mil over the next 12mths who mortgages are up for renewal so it's going to be interesting how these homeowners manage when they see their existing 1% mortgage at now around 4% or more.

    But with the housing market anything can happen and govt may come along with incentives to keep things going that bit longer, especially in the run up to a general election.

    But it's true that landlords are selling up with new laws coming in and a more attractive savings rate now then we have seen for the past decade Alt of financial advisors are telling clients to sell up and get out of property and invest elsewhere.

    Any move will likely mean your house also losing value so there may be little benefit from falling prices especially if you are now paying higher monthlies caused by the IR spike.

    Most economists predict prices falling and the era of low IRs we have seen the past decade not returning, so we are now entering a new phase that has not been seen for a long time.
  16. Mendoza's avatar
    Mendoza
    Zoopla have that thing, were it tells you how much houses sold for in a area
  17. ses6jwg's avatar
    ses6jwg
    Any glut of houses on the market will be bought up by the whales keeping prices high.
    ozzmosiz's avatar
    ozzmosiz
    Why would they want a depreciating asset?
  18. AMaky's avatar
    AMaky
    Do you need a bigger house?
    Can you afford the mortgage?
    Have you found house of your dreams?
    then buy it!
    It's a place to live and enjoy, house prices might go up or down, same at rates.
  19. King65's avatar
    King65
    Sellers always ask for more than they are really willing to sell for. Offer 10%+ less than their asking price and haggle with them.
  20. Sophia1993's avatar
    Sophia1993
    Cash buyers are laughing at all you poor people right now hehe
    MrRee's avatar
    MrRee
    Really?

    They're buying when prices are falling - that's not clever at all.

    And they lose twice, once on the purchase and again on the interest that cash could have returned them.

    A £400k house bought with cash today will lose about £80k in the nest 12 months - in addition, that £400k could have brought in 4% just sat in a Bank, which equals £16k. In addition there is the costs of Stamp Duty etc.

    I think the joke is on the cash buyers choosing to buy now.
  21. tek-monkey's avatar
    tek-monkey
    If tories stay in I suspect we'll see 'measures' to prop up the housing market to an extent. Help to buy an overpriced new build, deposit assistance to ensure you stay in more debt than you could really afford, maybe even go back to the old partial ownership where the gov owns part of your house but they'll outsource that bit, that sort of thing. House prices need to stay high for their core electorate to think they're doing well.

    If labour get in I have no idea, Starmer is a little too much like Blair, so whilst their default position should be fixing the country I have no real idea what their focus would be.

    Either way, if you're buying with a mortgage I expect no real difference to prices, you'll pay the same it's just that the perceived value might be lower.
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